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2024-12-26

Why does the article not include SMCI's involvement in xAI?

Behavioral Biases Worsen Super Micro Computer's Sentiment

SummarySMCI is exploring equity or debt options after raising $2 billion earlier this year, risking shareholder dilution.Removal from the index has intensified selling pressure, amplifying negative se

Behavioral Biases Worsen Super Micro Computer's Sentiment

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It has tapped Evercore for advice on options such as issuing equity, debt financing, or even private equity investments. Early in the year, SMCI completed an offering that generated $2 billion through the issuance of 2 million new shares. Preliminary stages for the current capital-raising initiatives were not announced, including the size and type. Any potential equity offerings would suggest dilution among current shareholders; similarly, the addition of more debt may increase its financial leverage.</p><p>These developments come against the backdrop of the removal of SMCI from the Nasdaq 100 Index and continued delays in financial reporting, both of which together have taken a significant toll on investor confidence and, therefore, stock value. Its stock has seen significant volatility, reflecting market apprehension about its financial health and governance practices.</p><h2 id=\"id_997901318\">Psychological Impact of Being Removed from Nasdaq 100</h2><p>For SMCI, being taken out from the Nasdaq 100 index is not just a technical movement; it carries a deep psychological impact in the minds of investors. Inclusion in a major market index often means approval of sorts, signaling credibility and stability, with the confidence of institutional investors. Exclusion from the same would therefore give the impression of vulnerability and heighten the perception of the problem. For retail investors, it is just a warning that triggers various emotional responses, which accelerate their selling. Large institutional selling, especially from index-linked funds, is forced to offload the stock, adding to selling pressure and exaggerating price falls.</p><p>Behavioral finance explains this through <em>herd behavior </em>and<strong> </strong><em>anchoring biases</em><strong>.</strong> Investors, who had anchored to the earlier highs of including a peak of $122.90 in March, come to terms with the company&#39;s decline today. When one such event takes place, like index exclusion, it often acts as a catalyst for disproportionate emotional responses. In fact, in the history of stock market, whenever Dell (DELL) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) removal from indexes has triggered a sell-off, it also coincides with a sharp price decline with spikes in trading volumes. For SMCI, this exclusion from the Nasdaq 100 has now started to become like a self-reinforcing signal of weakness, feeding into negative sentiment and price momentum.</p><p>That fallout is clear in the performance of SMCI this week, when its stock plummeted and violated key technical levels, such as the 50-day moving average. Breakouts like those are considered bearish by followers of technical analysis-a self-reinforcing view, with even algorithmic and momentum traders again helping to force the price downward. Where selling becomes stronger, volumes will rise temporarily on a short-term basis; however, long-term liquidity goes off the radar as wary investors go on the hunt for safer prospects.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a224e2c8ab6d1a867a3321aae612760c\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"439\"/><span>Chart</span></p><h2 id=\"id_3807569013\">Late Financial Reports: Where Uncertainty Is the Mother of Fear</h2><p>Investor trust requires some level of transparency, while any disruption to financial reporting brings that element of doubt, which shall always be bitter for digesting in the market&#39;s stomach. To put it bluntly, grave internal concerns over controls and governance have emanated from delays in filing results for FY2024 and Q1 FY 2025 in the case of SMCI. Definitively positive, although this may sound for resolution, naming BDO their new independent auditor, till now, however, investor confidence did take a good beating from the entire conundrum.</p><p>Therefore, this is dominated by the behavioral role of uncertainty aversion. Investors <em>hate uncertainty far more than bad news</em>, simply because uncertainty restricts their ability to properly price the stock. In this absence of timely reports, investors also resort to &#34;sell-first and ask-questions-later,&#34; especially in those cases involving possible governance and management integrity concerns. This was seen quite remarkably in Luckin Coffee, where a delayed reporting set off panic-selling even before any material finding could emerge.</p><p>Moreover, SMCI is suffering from a case of <em>recency bias</em>: when investors give far more importance to events that have just happened. The issues raised by EY before its resignation and the continuing Nasdaq compliance issues are fresh on investors&#39; minds. The fact that BDO was brought in is a positive development, but the market still sees the company through the lens of doubt. With no transparency to their financials and compliance, as long as SMCI remains so, investor confidence will remain fragile, and any further delay will lead to disproportionately adverse price and trading reactions.</p><h2 id=\"id_2562031233\">Loss Aversion and Momentum Trading</h2><p>The reason such volatility exists in the core of SMCI is a raft of cognitive biases that amplify investors&#39; reactions. None is as evident as the concept of <em>loss aversion</em>, or the fact that losses are felt far more acutely than gains. As SMCI&#39;s price moves lower, investors-especially those who purchased higher-waste no time in dumping their positions to prevent further losses from piling up. This creates acceleration downward in price momentum, especially within a fragile sentiment environment.</p><p>This is further exacerbated by what is known as the confirmation bias phenomenon: the bears now focus on governance challenges in SMCI, the Nasdaq exclusion, and delays in reporting as the confirmation of their bearish sentiment. This report of the Special Committee exonerating the management of any wrongdoing was cast aside and not given much credence, even when good events did occur. In this way, negative sentiment is perpetuated and the stock cannot effectively rebound.</p><p>Momentum trading adds fuel to the fire. Hedge funds and the algorithmic traders make extreme use of the technical analysis indicators, notably the moving averages. When SMCI breaks through major levels of support, such as a 50-day moving average, automated selling quickly ensues, lifting short-term trading volumes and dampening price bounce. Individual investors, who tend to imitate this institutional behavior in size, look on and further amplify the sell-off. In such an environment, the price of SMCI would depend less on the fundamentals and more on sentiment, technical signals, and collective investor behavior.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/56425be4885485f7c2ebd57e331d61b7\" alt=\"Chart\" title=\"Chart\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"424\"/><span>Chart</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1105862263\">Lessons from History: Parallels and Road to Recovery</h2><p>Companies in the past, with these kinds of governance and compliance issues, generally suffered from <em>prolonged negativity but recovered</em>. One big comparable case would be the case of Marvell Technology in 2015: after its auditor&#39;s resignation and financial delays, the company came into stability through reforms in governance, clear communication, and resolution at filing. The catch is that recoveries take time to come, as reflected by this example, where several months were required to have the lost trust restored.</p><p>Of course, the eventual appointment of BDO to SMCI and the eventual results of its Special Committee, such steps would be indicative but not an early end. While BDO accepted SMCI as a client, such flagged governance issues were perceived to contain no material misstatement leading to suspicion of other elements. Indeed, a little more will suffice with investor sentiment, if auditor appointments are going to have to translate to timely, perceivable action in due course. The key milestones going forward are the filing of overdue financials, a strong appointment of a CFO, and improving transparency. If SMCI can deliver these, the stock may rebound abruptly on relief buying and renewed confidence of investors. Till that time, history would indicate a continued punishment by the market as uncertainty and perceived risk remain in place.</p><h2 id=\"id_2228459194\">Concluding Thoughts</h2><p>Reversing the current trend for SMCI depends on hitting some major milestones and addressing investor concerns head-on. First, the company has to file its overdue financial reports by the extended deadline given by Nasdaq, which is early in 2025. Success on this point would prove an improvement in transparency and governance, easing fears of delisting and thus stabilizing the stock.</p><p>Sentiment will remain fragile, and volatility will linger in the near term. Investor psychology of fear and uncertainty continues to lead trading behavior. But for the long-term investor, strong positioning in the AI infrastructure market is a great narrative for SMCI. If the company resolves the immediate challenges and rebuilds trust, it could emerge stronger and find its place in the market.</p><p>For the foreseeable future, SMCI stock remains at the mercy of investor sentiment, which, for the most part, will either continue in its spiral downward or mark the beginning of its recovery based on whether it can accomplish these critical milestones and reassure the market and its investors.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behavioral Biases Worsen Super Micro Computer's Sentiment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehavioral Biases Worsen Super Micro Computer's Sentiment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-26 20:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4746328-behavioral-biases-worsen-smcis-sentiment><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySMCI is exploring equity or debt options after raising $2 billion earlier this year, risking shareholder dilution.Removal from the index has intensified selling pressure, amplifying negative ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4746328-behavioral-biases-worsen-smcis-sentiment\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SMCI":"超微电脑"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4746328-behavioral-biases-worsen-smcis-sentiment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151905452","content_text":"SummarySMCI is exploring equity or debt options after raising $2 billion earlier this year, risking shareholder dilution.Removal from the index has intensified selling pressure, amplifying negative sentiment and triggering institutional and retail sell-offs.Reporting delays for FY2024 and Q1 FY2025 have raised governance concerns and eroded investor trust significantly.Loss aversion and confirmation bias are driving panic selling, worsening price momentum and market sentiment for SMCI.Super Micro Computer is now looking to raise more money to strengthen its financial position. It has tapped Evercore for advice on options such as issuing equity, debt financing, or even private equity investments. Early in the year, SMCI completed an offering that generated $2 billion through the issuance of 2 million new shares. Preliminary stages for the current capital-raising initiatives were not announced, including the size and type. Any potential equity offerings would suggest dilution among current shareholders; similarly, the addition of more debt may increase its financial leverage.These developments come against the backdrop of the removal of SMCI from the Nasdaq 100 Index and continued delays in financial reporting, both of which together have taken a significant toll on investor confidence and, therefore, stock value. Its stock has seen significant volatility, reflecting market apprehension about its financial health and governance practices.Psychological Impact of Being Removed from Nasdaq 100For SMCI, being taken out from the Nasdaq 100 index is not just a technical movement; it carries a deep psychological impact in the minds of investors. Inclusion in a major market index often means approval of sorts, signaling credibility and stability, with the confidence of institutional investors. Exclusion from the same would therefore give the impression of vulnerability and heighten the perception of the problem. For retail investors, it is just a warning that triggers various emotional responses, which accelerate their selling. Large institutional selling, especially from index-linked funds, is forced to offload the stock, adding to selling pressure and exaggerating price falls.Behavioral finance explains this through herd behavior and anchoring biases. Investors, who had anchored to the earlier highs of including a peak of $122.90 in March, come to terms with the company's decline today. When one such event takes place, like index exclusion, it often acts as a catalyst for disproportionate emotional responses. In fact, in the history of stock market, whenever Dell (DELL) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) removal from indexes has triggered a sell-off, it also coincides with a sharp price decline with spikes in trading volumes. For SMCI, this exclusion from the Nasdaq 100 has now started to become like a self-reinforcing signal of weakness, feeding into negative sentiment and price momentum.That fallout is clear in the performance of SMCI this week, when its stock plummeted and violated key technical levels, such as the 50-day moving average. Breakouts like those are considered bearish by followers of technical analysis-a self-reinforcing view, with even algorithmic and momentum traders again helping to force the price downward. Where selling becomes stronger, volumes will rise temporarily on a short-term basis; however, long-term liquidity goes off the radar as wary investors go on the hunt for safer prospects.ChartLate Financial Reports: Where Uncertainty Is the Mother of FearInvestor trust requires some level of transparency, while any disruption to financial reporting brings that element of doubt, which shall always be bitter for digesting in the market's stomach. To put it bluntly, grave internal concerns over controls and governance have emanated from delays in filing results for FY2024 and Q1 FY 2025 in the case of SMCI. Definitively positive, although this may sound for resolution, naming BDO their new independent auditor, till now, however, investor confidence did take a good beating from the entire conundrum.Therefore, this is dominated by the behavioral role of uncertainty aversion. Investors hate uncertainty far more than bad news, simply because uncertainty restricts their ability to properly price the stock. In this absence of timely reports, investors also resort to \"sell-first and ask-questions-later,\" especially in those cases involving possible governance and management integrity concerns. This was seen quite remarkably in Luckin Coffee, where a delayed reporting set off panic-selling even before any material finding could emerge.Moreover, SMCI is suffering from a case of recency bias: when investors give far more importance to events that have just happened. The issues raised by EY before its resignation and the continuing Nasdaq compliance issues are fresh on investors' minds. The fact that BDO was brought in is a positive development, but the market still sees the company through the lens of doubt. With no transparency to their financials and compliance, as long as SMCI remains so, investor confidence will remain fragile, and any further delay will lead to disproportionately adverse price and trading reactions.Loss Aversion and Momentum TradingThe reason such volatility exists in the core of SMCI is a raft of cognitive biases that amplify investors' reactions. None is as evident as the concept of loss aversion, or the fact that losses are felt far more acutely than gains. As SMCI's price moves lower, investors-especially those who purchased higher-waste no time in dumping their positions to prevent further losses from piling up. This creates acceleration downward in price momentum, especially within a fragile sentiment environment.This is further exacerbated by what is known as the confirmation bias phenomenon: the bears now focus on governance challenges in SMCI, the Nasdaq exclusion, and delays in reporting as the confirmation of their bearish sentiment. This report of the Special Committee exonerating the management of any wrongdoing was cast aside and not given much credence, even when good events did occur. In this way, negative sentiment is perpetuated and the stock cannot effectively rebound.Momentum trading adds fuel to the fire. Hedge funds and the algorithmic traders make extreme use of the technical analysis indicators, notably the moving averages. When SMCI breaks through major levels of support, such as a 50-day moving average, automated selling quickly ensues, lifting short-term trading volumes and dampening price bounce. Individual investors, who tend to imitate this institutional behavior in size, look on and further amplify the sell-off. In such an environment, the price of SMCI would depend less on the fundamentals and more on sentiment, technical signals, and collective investor behavior.ChartLessons from History: Parallels and Road to RecoveryCompanies in the past, with these kinds of governance and compliance issues, generally suffered from prolonged negativity but recovered. One big comparable case would be the case of Marvell Technology in 2015: after its auditor's resignation and financial delays, the company came into stability through reforms in governance, clear communication, and resolution at filing. The catch is that recoveries take time to come, as reflected by this example, where several months were required to have the lost trust restored.Of course, the eventual appointment of BDO to SMCI and the eventual results of its Special Committee, such steps would be indicative but not an early end. While BDO accepted SMCI as a client, such flagged governance issues were perceived to contain no material misstatement leading to suspicion of other elements. Indeed, a little more will suffice with investor sentiment, if auditor appointments are going to have to translate to timely, perceivable action in due course. The key milestones going forward are the filing of overdue financials, a strong appointment of a CFO, and improving transparency. If SMCI can deliver these, the stock may rebound abruptly on relief buying and renewed confidence of investors. Till that time, history would indicate a continued punishment by the market as uncertainty and perceived risk remain in place.Concluding ThoughtsReversing the current trend for SMCI depends on hitting some major milestones and addressing investor concerns head-on. First, the company has to file its overdue financial reports by the extended deadline given by Nasdaq, which is early in 2025. Success on this point would prove an improvement in transparency and governance, easing fears of delisting and thus stabilizing the stock.Sentiment will remain fragile, and volatility will linger in the near term. Investor psychology of fear and uncertainty continues to lead trading behavior. But for the long-term investor, strong positioning in the AI infrastructure market is a great narrative for SMCI. If the company resolves the immediate challenges and rebuilds trust, it could emerge stronger and find its place in the market.For the foreseeable future, SMCI stock remains at the mercy of investor sentiment, which, for the most part, will either continue in its spiral downward or mark the beginning of its recovery based on whether it can accomplish these critical milestones and reassure the market and its investors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":50,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}