To The Moon

NIO (NYSE:NIO) is one of the hottest EV car companies in the world and a top 10 largest in the world (3rd largest in China). NIO stock made its debut on the New York Stock Exchange on September 12th, 2018, at $6.26 per share.

Within 3 years of trading, NIO stock hit an all-time high of $62.84 in February 2021 before plummeting 92.70% to today’s price of $4.59 per share.

While the share price run-up in early 2020 was purely a momentum push, NIO brand in the EV market was not tarnished. In fact, the car company is still seen as a premium EV player and one of the first companies to address range anxiety issues by creating battery swap technology as a supplement to charging.

24/7 Wall Street aims to provide readers with our assumptions about the stock’s prospects going forward, what growth we see in NIO stock for the next several years, and what our best estimates are for NIO’s stock price each year through 2030.

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NIO Stock Early Stage Growth

The following is a table of NIO’s revenues, operating income, and share price for the first few years as a public company.

Here’s a table summarizing performance in share price, revenues, and profits (net income) from 2014 to 2018.

NIO formerly contracted its manufacturing to Jianghuai Automobile Group, paying a fee for each vehicle produced in addition to fixed cost. They have since acquired the factory from JAC. This agreement is beneficial for a young start-up in a very capital-intensive market. However, when scale is reached, the variable cost model has its downsides.

3 Key Drivers of NIO’s Stock Performance

• Product Portfolio Expansion and Growing Market Share

  • New Model Launches: Similar to Tesla, NIO started off with a higher-end roadster and used the higher-end models to re-invest into more affordable, mass-market vehicles. NIO aims to push further into price-conscious markets while also adding options for its more premium customers.

  • Add-On Services: With NIO’s battery swap technology, the company plans to roll out an innovative battery-as-a-service solution for its customer base. The company plans on building over 4,000 swap stations worldwide by the end of 2025.

• Increased Vehicle Deliveries and Market Penetration

  • Growing NEV Adoption: The market for new market vehicles (NEVs) is on the rise in China. NIO expects vehicle deliveries in 2025 to double the output from 2023 (roughly 165,000 units). This still only makes up about 2% of the Chinese NEV market and gives NIO plenty of roadway to grab market share for years to come.

  • International Expansion: NIO’s strategy includes expanding its market presence outside China. The company built its first overseas battery-swap station in Hungary in 2022 and has several service centers and NIO accessory businesses throughout Europe.

• Advancements in Technology and Customer Experience

  • Battery and Charging Solutions: NIO’s advancements in battery technology and charging solutions aim to alleviate range anxiety among consumers and help lower the overall cost of the vehicle by 15% to 30%.

  • Focus on Younger Consumers: NIO’s leadership in EV technology will provide brand equity to younger generations of drivers who value enhanced technology packages.

NIO Share Price Estimates 2025-2030

We expect to see a revenue growth of 60% for the year, with a price-to-sales multiple of 1x, which puts our price target at $6.63, an upside of 44.44%.

Going into 2026, we estimate the price to be $7.80, with another strong 50%+ revenue bump. However, with EBITDA still well in the negative, we see the market not rewarding the stock as much and giving it a lower valuation multiple, resulting in an upside of 69.93%.

Heading into 2027, we expect the stock price increase to leap forward to $13.80 with another strong 50%+ revenue growth year-over-year. That is a 97% year-over-year gain and up 200.65% from today’s stock price.

When predicting more than 3 years out, we expect NIO’s P/S ratio in 2028 to be 1.5x and top-line growth of 50%. In 2028, we have NIO’s revenue coming in around $36 billion, suggesting a stock price estimate at $26.39 or a gain of 474.95% over the current stock price.

24/7 Wall Street expects NIO’s stock to continue its revenue growth and to generate $25 billion in revenue. The stock price in 2029 is estimated at $18.08, or a gain of 293.90% over today’s price.