10Y Treasury Yield May Hit 5%? Is Rate Cut Possible This Year?

Tiger_comments
2025-01-08

The data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Tuesday showed that service sector growth in December exceeded expectations, while job vacancies in November surged to a six-month high.

Inflation pressure persists? No rate cuts in 2025?

These two data points have intensified market concerns about a tight labor market and persistent inflationary pressures, diminishing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates this year.

Goldman Sachs even believes the Fed won't cut rates in 2025.

According to Mark Matthews, head of Asia research at Julius Baer, it is unlikely the Fed will cut rates more than once this year, and the possibility of no rate cuts remains substantial.

Were the market's performance and analysts' views too cautious?

Could 10Y US Treasury yields break 5%? Continued rise could hurt risk assets?

On January 7, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond rose further to 4.919%, the highest level in 14 months. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.695%, the highest since April of last year. $US10Y(US10Y.BOND)$

Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal grounds for imposing widespread tariffs. Trump's tax cuts, and high tariffs policies have heightened market concerns about U.S. inflation risks.

According to options data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on January 7, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to rise to 5% by the end of February.

The FOMC minutes tonight and non-farm payroll data on Friday will be crucial for the broader market. $.SPX(.SPX)$

Will US 10Y treasury yields reach 5%?

Does it mean a good opportunity for US Treasuries?

Would broader market continue to dip with treasury and inflation pressure?

How many rate cuts do you expect in 2025?

Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~

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Comment（21）

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  • Cadi Poon
    ·2025-01-08
    特朗普正在考慮宣佈國家經濟進入緊急狀態，爲徵收大範圍關稅提供法律依據。特朗普減稅、高關稅政策加劇了市場對美國通脹風險的擔憂。

    據芝加哥商品交易所1月7日期權數據顯示，10年期美債收益率有望在2月底升至5%。

    今晚的FOMC會議紀要和週五的非農數據將對大盤至關重要。$.SPX(.SPX)$

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  • MHh
    ·2025-01-08
    There is a good chance for US 10Y treasury yields to reach 5%. The recent data do suggest inflation has been sticky and Trump does intend to add more jobs alongside with pushing for rate cuts. I do expect the broader market to dip. Logically, the number of rate cuts should be low but I believe trump will exert pressure for further rate cuts. So, expect at least 1 rate cut for the year.
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  • AliceSam
    ·2025-01-08
    1月7日，30年期美国国债收益率进一步升至4.919%，创14个月来最高水平。
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  • TimothyX
    ·2025-01-08
    這兩個數據點加劇了市場對勞動力市場緊張和持續通貨膨脹的壓力，降低了美聯儲今年降息的可能性。

    高盛甚至認爲美聯儲不會降息2025年。

    在瑞士寶盛亞洲研究主管Mark Matthews看來，美聯儲今年不太可能降息超過一次，而降息幅度仍然不大。


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  • Success88
    ·2025-01-08
    Maybe slow in cutting rate. But overall will still cut. Now bank and yield benefit
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  • ECLC
    ·2025-01-09
    Even 1 rate cut will excite the reits; possibly long wait. Meanwhile, continue to collect dividends.
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  • Shyon
    ·2025-01-08
    TOP
    最近的服务业增长和职位空缺数据表明通胀持续存在，这使得美联储不太可能在2025年降息。我同意高盛和马克·马修斯的观点，即美联储不太可能降息，特别是在通胀居高不下、劳动力市场持续紧张的情况下。

    美国10年期国债收益率可能突破5%，这可能会损害风险资产，因为较高的收益率使债券更具吸引力。如果收益率继续上升，可能预示着更强劲的经济增长或进一步的通胀压力。

    如果收益率继续攀升，大盘可能会面临额外的下行空间。我预计美联储可能不会在2025年降息，可能只降息一次或不降息。即将公布的FOMC会议纪要和非农数据将对引导市场预期至关重要。

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerGPT

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    • ELI_59Replying toShyon: 
      谢谢你标记我。😍🥰😘
      2025-01-09
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    • ShyonReplying toicycrystal: 
      [Shy][Shy][Shy]
      2025-01-09
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    • ShyonReplying toBarcode: 
      别担心，硬币给我们！
      2025-01-09
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  • TheStrategist
    ·2025-01-08
    Sure Fed will not cut so often in 2025
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  • highhand
    ·2025-01-08
    2 rate cuts as per the Fed... let the interest rate stay high and we get more interest from the banks. buy big strong companies with lots of cash. not affected by interest rates.
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  • icycrystal
    ·2025-01-09
    TOP
    rate cut or not, important to consistently invest. diversifying portfolio is another important factor so no matter how the market turns... portfolio will balance themselves out...

    Goldman Sachs even believes the Fed won't cut rates in 2025.

    According to Mark Matthews, head of Asia research at Julius Baer, it is unlikely the Fed will cut rates more than once this year, and the possibility of no rate cuts remains substantial.

    @LMSunshine @koolgal @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT @Aqa @Shyon @rL @HelenJanet @GoodLife99 @Universe宇宙 @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT

    Will US 10Y treasury yields reach 5%?

    Does it mean a good opportunity for US Treasuries?

    Would broader market continue to dip with treasury and inflation pressure?

    How many rate cuts do you expect in 2025?

    Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~

    Reply
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    Fold Replies
    • TigerAI: 

      Here are some news articles related to the topics you mentioned:

      10Y Treasury Yield May Hit 5%? Is Rate Cut Possible This Year?

      This article discusses the possibility of the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching 5%. It explores the potential impact of rate cuts and the factors that could contribute to the yield's movement.  

        

      Fed Meeting Minutes to Shed Light on Rate-Cut Path in 2025

      The article highlights the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes from December 2024. It discusses how these minutes will provide insights into the Fed's thinking regarding the economy, interest rates, and inflation in the coming years.  

        

      Treasury Bond Yields at 5% Throwing a Tantrum That...

      This article analyzes the impact of rising treasury bond yields, including the possibility of reaching 5%. It explores the relationship between treasury yields, interest rates, and the stock market outlook.  

        

      Why Long and Short Interest Rates Fell Out of Step

      The article discusses the divergence between short-term and long-term interest rates, highlighting how the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds has risen while the Federal Reserve has been cutting benchmark interest rates.  

        

      Market Braces For Higher Interest Rates As Fed Minutes Loom

      This article explores the market's anticipation of higher interest rates and investors' expectations of only one rate cut this year. It emphasizes the significance of the Fed's meeting minutes in shaping these expectations.  

        

      Regarding the specific question of whether US 10Y treasury yields will reach 5%, the articles provide different viewpoints and insights. It is essential to consider various factors and market conditions to assess the likelihood of such a scenario.

      As for the number of rate cuts expected in 2025, the articles do not provide a specific consensus. However, they highlight the importance of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes in shedding light on the Fed's rate-cut path and their projections for the future.

      Please note that these news articles provide different perspectives, and it is crucial to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions. Investing always carries risks, and it is recommended to consult with a professional financial advisor.

      Note: The information provided here is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in securities involves risks, and it is important to carefully consider your investment objectives and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

      2025-01-09
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  • Aqa
    ·2025-01-09
    The possibility of no rate cuts remains substantial. Recent months’ data have shown a tight labor market and persistent inflationary pressures, diminishing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates this year. On January 7, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond rose further to 4.919%, the highest level in 14 months, reaching 5% soon. The FOMC’s meeting minutes tonight and non-farm payroll data on Friday will be crucial for the investors. Keep our eyes peeled for $.SPX(.SPX)$ Thanks @Tiger_comments @icycrystal
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  • Kwee96
    ·2025-01-08

    Great article, would you like to share it?

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  • fir3tiger
    ·2025-01-08
    no cut
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