To The Moon

We are days away from the new Trump administration, the cryptocurrency community is looking forward to Trump’s fulfilment of his campaign promise to make U.S. the “crypto capital of the planet”.

But we also saw how Bitcoin’s price crossed US$100,000 for the first time in history in December 2024, and we already have analyst predicting that Bitcoin’s price could come in between range of $80,000 and $250,000 in 2025.

Bitcoin have since traded below $90,000 at one point when we start 2025, so this show that investors are often motivated by the prospect of short-term profits rather than a belief in the asset’s true or fundamental value.

There have been news that Trump reportedly plans signing several crypto-related executive orders on his first day in office.

Easing Of Regulations Fueled Institution Interest In Cryptocurrencies. Good Or Bad?

With this anticipation of Trump campaign promise and on top of that, there might be more favourable regulatory environment under the Trump administration, there have been an increased increased institutional interest in cryptocurrencies.

With growing institutional involvement, including investment management companies and banks, other industries are becoming increasingly exposed to the risks of a crypto market crash, such as those caused by the Terra Luna and FTX collapses in 2022.

A core part of the cryptocurrency ethos is the aspiration for financial liberty: enabling peer-to-peer transactions without reliance on central banks or financial intermediaries, and promoting higher financial freedom.

Easing cryptocurrency regulations would not advance the ideal of financial freedom. Instead, it would mark a significant step backward in the pursuit of transparency and accountability in addressing financial misconduct by the wealthy and powerful. Strong political and government endorsements of crypto, paradoxically, pose a threat to its decentralisation ethos and could ultimately undermine the appeal of crypto assets.

This year, the crypto market is likely to go mainstream, but those who dabble at the fringes may be met with unmet expectations at best and challenges at worst.

In the days after Bitcoin’s peak, wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC collectively sold 79,000 BTC, triggering a 15% correction. According to Blocktrends’ head of research, Cauê Oliveira, this sell-off coincided with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. However, these same institutional players returned to the market, taking advantage of prices below $95,000 to rebuild their positions through smaller, fragmented trades.

Bitcoin’s seven-day balance change has flipped positive following the late-December sell-off. This indicates renewed buying pressure, which could help stabilize the market. By January 7, Bitcoin was trading around $94,900, down 2.3% for the day amidst broader market weakness caused by U.S. economic data.

Bitfinex analysts also noted a sharp reduction in sell-side liquidity, suggesting that the worst of the downward price pressure might be over.

What I feel is that this accumulation is a calculated one, it seems to emphasis the large players (e.g. institutional) who deploy such a strategy to capitalize on market consolidations.

Why Did Bitcoin Falls Below 91K

Bitcoin is facing a downward trend of lower highs and lower lows, with both technical and fundamental analyses showing a bearish momentum. At the time of publication, the price on CoinMarketCap was 90,567, representing a 3% and 8% decline in the past day and week, respectively.

Bitcoin's mining landscape has reached a remarkable milestone. The network’s difficulty adjustment, a measure of how hard it is to mine a block, has climbed for the eighth consecutive time, hitting an all-time high of 110.45 trillion.

This marks a 110.45 trillion-fold increase in difficulty since Bitcoin's inception, data from Glassnode showed. This reflects the network's resilience and the intensifying competition among miners.

The BTC mining difficulty increase average in the last 24 hours is 0.31% at block 879,181 on the Bitcoin blockchain network. In the last 7 days the Bitcoin difficulty increase was 0.61%, with the increase in the last 30 days being 6.29%, and the last 90 days is 19.99%.

Challenges for Miners

The rising difficulty presents significant challenges for miners, squeezing profit margins as competition intensifies. In response, some companies, like $MARA Holdings(MARA)$, have diversified their operations, pivoting to high-performance computing and AI sectors.

Others, such as MARA, have adopted financial strategies like issuing convertible bonds and lending Bitcoin to secure additional revenue streams.

The surge in difficulty occurs against a backdrop of volatile Bitcoin prices, which recently retreated to around $90k amid macroeconomic uncertainties. Robust U.S. jobs data and expectations of steady Federal Reserve interest rates have dampened risk appetite, further pressuring the crypto market.

Currently, Bitcoin price is trading at an important support level below which prices could drop further. If the current level does not hold, the other support levels to watch are $87k and $76k.

If we looked at how MARA have been doing with the Bitcoin prices move, we might see a recovery once pro-crypto policies came in once Trump administration officially start, this could boost market confidence.

For now, MARA is still showing strength from the bullish MACD upside movement, though MTF is showing downtrend, what might be worrying to the investors is MARA is trading below both the short-term and long-term MA, I am expecting MARA to make another gap up once Bitcoin prices start to trend near the 99K level.

So I would think this might be a good time to look at entering if you have not done so, it has managed to defend the support level at around 16.50.

More BTC Acquire By MicroStrategy, Now 450,000 BTC In Its Stash

Business intelligence firm and corporate bitcoin holder $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ acquired an additional 2,530 for approximately $243 million at an average price of $95,972 per bitcoin between Jan. 6 and Jan. 12, according to an 8-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.

It follows the sale of a further 710,425 MicroStrategy shares during the same period for the same amount. As of Jan. 12, the company said approximately $6.53 billion worth of shares remained available for sale as part of its planned $21 billion equity offering and $21 billion in fixed-income securities capital raise, targeting a total $42 billion for further bitcoin acquisitions.

Earlier this month, the company expanded that 21/21 plan, announcing a potential $2 billion preferred stock offering in a strategy that could “unlock an institutional goldmine,” according to Benchmark equity analyst Mark Palmer. By turning to perpetual preferred stock, MicroStrategy could attract institutional investors such as insurance companies, pension funds and banks, Palmer said.

The company now holds 450,000 BTC, worth over $40 billion. MicroStrategy’s total holdings were bought at an average price of $62,691 per bitcoin, a total cost of around $28.2 billion, including fees and expenses, according to the company's co-founder and executive chairman, Michael Saylor. To put that in perspective, MicroStrategy holds around 2.1% of bitcoin’s total 21 million supply.

For MicroStrategy, we need to look at how it correlate with Bitcoin, if we look at how it has moved with the Bitcoin price, it seems to lose the correlation towards the end of December 2024, but currently it shows promising opportunities, as it has defended the 26-EMA well, and the bulls have managed to create an uptrend expansion with Bitcoin trending around 97K.

So if we plan to trade MSTR, I would think the price target could be around 342.10, which is close to the 26-EMA, if the bulls is not able to defend this level, then we could even see MSTR going down to 300.

Potential SEC's controversial accounting bulletin Repeal

Trump plans to issue executive orders on his first day as president that could address “de-banking” and Staff Accounting Bulletin 121, nicknamed SAB 121, The Washington Post reported on Monday.

The crypto industry has raised concerns about SAB 121, a bulletin that requires firms that custody cryptocurrencies to record their customers’ crypto holdings as liabilities on their balance sheets.

President-elect Donald Trump is poised to issue executive orders on his first day that could repeal the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's controversial crypto accounting guidance, according to reporting from The Washington Post.

Newly appointed crypto czar David Sacks and the Trump transition team have worked jointly to finish a "legislative strategy." Trump also plans to issue executive orders on his first day as president that could address "de-banking" and Staff Accounting Bulletin 121, nicknamed SAB 121, The Washington Post reported on Monday, citing a person involved in those conversations.

Summary

Bitcoin’s recent price movements illustrate its volatile and dynamic nature. Institutional accumulation is providing much-needed support for recovery, but bearish technical patterns and broader market factors suggest caution.

As pro-crypto policies and increasing institutional adoption shape the market, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook for 2025 is promising with Trump’s inauguration just days away.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think crypto stocks would benefit from the long term outlook for Bitcoin in 2025.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.