To The Moon

$Moody's(MCO)$ $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ $MasterCard(MA)$ $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$

The world’s top investors often follow unique and distinct strategies. However, when 15, 20, or even 30 of them hold the same stock in their portfolios, it's worth paying attention. Today, we’ll explore the top 10 stocks favored by “smart money” and see whether these investors are actively buying those stocks. Keep in mind, this doesn’t mean we should automatically buy them ourselves, but if a company passes the scrutiny of numerous elite investors, it’s wise to consider it as an investment idea.

#10 Moody’s Corporation

• Owned by: 15 super investors, including Chris Hohn, Chuck Akre, and Guy Spier.

• About: Moody’s Corporation operates Moody’s Investors Service, a credit rating agency, and Moody’s Analytics, which offers financial analysis software and services.

• Buying Activity: Super investors purchased 75,000 shares but sold over 1 million shares last quarter.

Why It's Favored:

• Strong market position in credit ratings and analytics.

• Essential service in global financial markets.

As of January 13, 2025, Moody's Corporation has not publicly released specific financial guidance for the year 2025. However, the company has provided comprehensive analyses and outlooks on various sectors and regions for 2025.

Global Credit Conditions

Moody's anticipates that growth in major economies will normalize, with interest rates expected to decline. Despite this stabilization, potential disruptions, particularly from geopolitical factors, are likely in 2025

Regional Corporate Outlooks

China: The outlook for nonfinancial companies has shifted to stable from a previously negative stance. While economic growth may decelerate, stronger government stimulus is expected to prevent further deterioration in credit conditions. However, elevated geopolitical tensions remain a key risk.

Asia-Pacific (excluding China): A stable outlook is projected, supported by solid GDP growth driven by countries like India and Indonesia. Easing interest rates will aid refinancing and financing conditions, though technological advancements and geopolitical tensions may introduce challenges.

Latin America & Caribbean: The stable outlook reflects variable credit implications from key themes influencing corporate credit quality, including macroeconomic normalization, geopolitical tensions, global transitions, and digitalization.

Sector-Specific Outlooks

Global Structured Finance: Both consumer and corporate structured finance obligors are expected to benefit from falling interest rates and stabilizing economic conditions in 2025.

Commercial Real Estate: Growth in major economies is normalizing, and interest rates are falling. However, further disruptions, especially from geopolitical factors, are anticipated in 2025.

#9 UnitedHealth Group

• Owned by: 16 super investors, including David Rolfe, Chase Coleman, and Stephen Mandel.

• About: The largest healthcare company globally by revenue and the largest insurer by net premiums.

• Buying Activity: Investors bought 59,000 shares and sold over 1.1 million shares.

Why It's Favored:

• Largest healthcare provider by revenue and insurance dominance.

• Significant growth in managed healthcare and digital health.

UnitedHealth Group has provided its financial outlook for 2025, anticipating:

• Revenues: Between $450 billion and $455 billion.

• Net Earnings: $28.15 to $28.65 per share.

• Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS): Growth in the mid-to-high single digits, ranging from $29.50 to $30.00.

• Cash Flows from Operations: Projected between $32 billion and $33 billion.

• Medical Care Ratio: Expected to be in the range of 86% to 87%.

These projections suggest that UnitedHealth Group anticipates continued growth in 2025, with revenues potentially reaching up to $455 billion and adjusted EPS approaching $30.00. The Medical Care Ratio indicates the percentage of premiums spent on medical care, with the expected range reflecting the company's focus on managing healthcare costs.

#8 Mastercard

• Owned by: 16 super investors, such as Chuck Akre, Guy Spier, and Tom Russo.

• About: A global payments technology company processing electronic transactions.

• Buying Activity: 568,000 shares were purchased, but 1.67 million shares were sold—a net reduction.

Why It's Favored:

• Essential in global payment systems and expanding digital economy.

• Consistent growth in consumer transactions worldwide.

As of January 13, 2025, Mastercard has provided mid-term financial guidance for the 2025-2027 period, indicating:

• Net Revenue Growth: Projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the low double digits, a revision from the previous high-teens forecast.

• Earnings Per Share (EPS) Growth: Anticipated to align with net revenue growth, suggesting a slowdown compared to prior expectations.

• Operating Margin: Expected to remain at approximately 50% during this period.

These projections reflect Mastercard's outlook for moderate growth over the next few years, with adjustments made in response to evolving market conditions.

The MasterCard Economics Institute has released its 2025 outlook, highlighting several key trends in consumer spending, including big-ticket items, travel, the balance between mass-market and luxury apparel, and the "she economy." Chief Economist Michelle Meyer shared insights on these topics:

Global Economic Growth

• 2025 Global Growth: Expected to reach 3.2%, slightly above the 2024 trend. The U.S. economy continues to exhibit strong performance, with momentum carried over from a robust 2024 holiday shopping season.

• Regional Highlights:India: Structural changes continue to drive strong economic growth.Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Sustained economic momentum with promising long-term growth potential.

Travel Trends

• Travel Twins: Focus on alternative, less-visited destinations that are affordable and accessible, which saw faster growth in hotel spending in 2024—a trend expected to continue in 2025.

• Value-Conscious Travelers: Consumers remain eager to travel but are prioritizing destinations offering the best value.

Big-Ticket Items vs. Experience Spending

• Big-Ticket Purchases: Categories like jewelry, electronics, and technology showed strength in late 2024, driven by promotional events and replacement cycles. A balanced spending basket is expected in 2025, reflecting both goods and experiences.

• Experience Economy: While still highly valued, consumers are increasingly mindful of spending on services like travel, considering rising costs.

Mass-Market vs. Luxury Apparel

• Spending Patterns: In 85% of analyzed countries, mass-market apparel spending outpaced luxury. Exceptions include Mexico and Japan, where luxury spending thrived due to factors like international tourism and currency dynamics.

The "She Economy"

• Cultural Phenomena: Events like Taylor Swift and Beyoncé tours continue to energize the economy, particularly through experiential spending.

• Workforce Trends: Women's labor force participation under age 54 grew faster than men's across multiple economies, signaling broader engagement and economic impact.

#7 Berkshire Hathaway

• Owned by: 19 super investors, including Guy Spier, Christopher Bloomstran, and Li Lu.

• About: A conglomerate led by Warren Buffett, with insurance as its primary business and capital source.

• Buying Activity: Less than 8,000 shares were bought, while 295,000 shares were sold. (Note: Excludes sales by the Gates Foundation, as these are related to Warren Buffett’s charitable donations.)

Why It's Favored:

• Strong insurance business and diversified portfolio of high-quality companies.

• Managed by Warren Buffett, the most renowned investor.

As of January 2025, Berkshire Hathaway has not issued formal earnings guidance for the year. However, several key developments and strategic decisions provide insight into the company's potential direction:

Cash Reserves and Investment Strategy

• Increased Cash Holdings: By August 2024, Berkshire's cash reserves had grown to nearly $277 billion, reflecting a cautious approach amid high stock valuations and economic uncertainties. Reduction in Apple Stake: The company reduced its Apple holdings by 50%, signaling a more defensive investment stance.

Operating Performance

• Record Operating Profits: In 2024, Berkshire reported record quarterly operating profits of $11.6 billion, driven primarily by its insurance businesses, including Geico. Market Capitalization Milestone: In August 2024, Berkshire Hathaway's market capitalization surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, with Class A shares closing at $696,502.02 and Class B shares at $464.59.

While Berkshire Hathaway does not provide specific earnings forecasts, its substantial cash reserves, strategic investment adjustments, and strong operating performance suggest a focus on maintaining financial strength and flexibility in 2025. Investors should monitor upcoming communications and the annual meeting for more detailed information on the company's plans and expectations.

#6 Apple

• Owned by: 20 super investors, including Warren Buffett, David Rolfe, and Francois Rochon.

• About: A global leader in consumer electronics, software, and services, including iPhones, Macs, and the App Store.

• Buying Activity: 7.2 million shares were purchased, but over 101 million shares were sold (100 million by Warren Buffett alone).

Why It's Favored:

• Ecosystem-driven consumer loyalty (iPhone, Mac, and services).

• Consistent innovation and profitability.

Apple is scheduled to announce its first-quarter results for fiscal year 2025 on January 30, 2025. Analysts have provided various projections for Apple's performance in 2025. For instance, estimates compiled by suggest that Apple could achieve approximately $415 billion in revenue for fiscal 2025, which concludes in September 2025.

In terms of stock performance, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives forecasts that Apple may attain a $4 trillion market capitalization by early 2025, potentially becoming the first company to reach this milestone. Additionally, Apple's iPhone 16 sales are expected to maintain strong performance due to the phased introduction of AI functionalities, with full availability anticipated by 2025. This gradual rollout is likely to encourage more upgrades over time.

It's important to note that some analysts have expressed caution regarding Apple's outlook. For example, MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett recently downgraded Apple stock to "sell," citing concerns such as a federal ruling against payments from Google to Apple, weakening market position in China, and under performance of the Vision Pro.

While these insights are valuable, they don’t guarantee these stocks are suitable for every portfolio. Always align investment decisions with your financial goals and strategy.

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