This is poorly timed-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

1
Comment
Favorite

o4hc
01-17

This is poorly timed

MicroStrategy's Trillion Dollar Bitcoin Bet Is Not What It Seems (Upgrade)

The recent dip certainly provides an enticing buying opportunity, and I do believe MSTR will outperform Bitcoin in the coming months.I highlighted potential risks in my last article, but with Bitcoin likely heading higher from here and MSTR now trading at a “relative discount,” this could be a good time to buy.I am upgrading to a Buy, though ultimately, I consider MSTR a trade, and Bitcoin an investment.MSTR’s Big Bold BetIf we look at Bitcoin and MSTR’s performance over December, we can actuall

MicroStrategy's Trillion Dollar Bitcoin Bet Is Not What It Seems (Upgrade)

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

1

Report

Comment

Top
Latest

empty

No comments yet

Most Discussed

Terms and Conditions·Privacy Policy

Company: TTMF Limited. Tech supported by Xiangshang Yixin.

Email：uservice@ttm.financial

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":393467505975472,"tweetId":"393467505975472","gmtCreate":1737083489128,"gmtModify":1737085417311,"author":{"id":4197402435428442,"idStr":"4197402435428442","authorId":4197402435428442,"authorIdStr":"4197402435428442","name":"o4hc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3a8bbe80bfdef815d4c467a973cd250f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.12.22","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body><p>This is poorly timed</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>This is poorly timed</p></body></html>","text":"This is poorly timed","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/393467505975472","repostId":1135736311,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135736311","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1737080391,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135736311?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-01-17 10:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"MicroStrategy's Trillion Dollar Bitcoin Bet Is Not What It Seems (Upgrade)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135736311","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"The recent dip certainly provides an enticing buying opportunity, and I do believe MSTR will outperform Bitcoin in the coming months.I highlighted potential risks in my last article, but with Bitcoin likely heading higher from here and MSTR now trading at a “relative discount,” this could be a good time to buy.I am upgrading to a Buy, though ultimately, I consider MSTR a trade, and Bitcoin an investment.MSTR’s Big Bold BetIf we look at Bitcoin and MSTR’s performance over December, we can actuall","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 id=\"id_1989670858\">Summary</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">Microstrategy </a> has dipped 15% while Bitcoin only fell 5%, presenting a buying opportunity as MSTR trades at a relative discount.</p></li><li><p>MSTR plans to increase authorized shares from 330 million to 10.33 billion to continue funding Bitcoin purchases, which is not immediately dilutive.</p></li><li><p>Shareholders, led by Saylor, are likely to approve the share increase, ensuring MSTR&#39;s current business model continues.</p></li><li><p>MSTR is expected to outperform Bitcoin, potentially appreciating by 50% and reaching $1000 based on technical analysis and premium trends.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d1302751969c4f9fa41716ea91e7284d\" alt=\"peshkov\" title=\"peshkov\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>peshkov</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1259615482\">Thesis Summary</h2><p>MicroStrategy Incorporated has come down around 15% in the last month, which is interesting when we consider that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has only been down around 5%.</p><p>Has MSTR lost its secret sauce? Is it still a better investment than Bitcoin?</p><p>The recent dip certainly provides an enticing buying opportunity, and I do believe MSTR will outperform Bitcoin in the coming months.</p><p>I highlighted potential risks in my last article, but with Bitcoin likely heading higher from here and MSTR now trading at a “relative discount,” this could be a good time to buy.</p><p>I am upgrading to a Buy, though ultimately, I consider MSTR a trade, and Bitcoin an investment.</p><h2 id=\"id_2607182669\">MSTR’s Big Bold Bet</h2><p>If we look at Bitcoin and MSTR’s performance over December, we can actually see a notable divergence.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3a2f2a1fc510cadb11e02e645fba2c74\" alt=\"MSTR and BTC (TV)\" title=\"MSTR and BTC (TV)\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"568\"/><span>MSTR and BTC (TV)</span></p><p>While MSTR fell over 21%, Bitcoin actually ended December almost flat. What’s the reason behind this?</p><p>Though MSTR has come to be known as a Bitcoin proxy, investors should remember that MSTR is also a company, and companies have their own unique set of challenges and catalysts.</p><p>In this particular case? A 30x increase in the number of authorized shares.</p><p>Yes, on December 23rd, MSTR filed form Pre-14A with the SEC, which outlines a plan to increase Class A common stock shares from 330 million to 10.33 billion.</p><p>This may sound scary, and I believe many investors may misunderstand the implications.</p><p>Let’s break it down before we start panic selling.</p><h2 id=\"id_3112220371\">Why Is MSTR Doing This?</h2><p>The answer to this should be pretty obvious. MSTR’s business model today relies on raising money and buying Bitcoin. It does this in two ways, and both ways require shares.</p><p>Microstrategy funds its Bitcoin purchases through convertible bonds or share sales, but the company is almost tapped out.</p><p>Including fully diluted shares, the company has around 280 million shares outstanding, leaving only around 50 million left before it reaches the 330 million limit.</p><h2 id=\"id_2697692419\">Will It Be Dilutive?</h2><p>So, there are two issues here that may have, at least momentarily, broken the MSTR secret sauce, by which MSTR can acquire Bitcoin which is valued at a premium on its balance sheet.</p><p>On one hand, there’s a degree of uncertainty here. Will this get approved? We’ll answer this below. More imminently though, it seems like some people are thinking this will be very dilutive, but that’s a misunderstanding.</p><p>Firstly, dilution is precisely what you want in this business, and if you aren’t on board with it, then you shouldn’t be investing in this company. Secondly, just because MSTR raises potential shares to 10.3 billion doesn’t mean it will automatically use all of this new financing potential.</p><p>It would be completely detrimental for the company to do this. If MSTR flooded the market today with 10 billion new shares, it could raise around $3.5 trillion, if the market could absorb them all at today’s price.</p><p>Is this realistic? Of course not, this would crash the share price, and in turn hurt their convertible bond strategy and future financing potential.</p><p>MSTR will gradually keep things going with its convertible bonds and ATM offerings to make the most out of its shares.</p><p>Ultimately, it could even raise more than $3.5 trillion through the upcoming years.</p><p>More likely, this is the kind of path we will see.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b7912699e16f5247d304ad33dcd58156\" alt=\"MSTR dilution forecast (CCN)\" title=\"MSTR dilution forecast (CCN)\" tg-width=\"1082\" tg-height=\"924\"/><span>MSTR dilution forecast (CCN)</span></p><p>This table above also accounts for the fact that the company will probably do another stock split at $1000 share price.</p><h2 id=\"id_4166439361\">Will Shareholders Approve The Move?</h2><p>Yes, this is very likely. For starters, Saylor controls a little under 50% of the voting rights, and he will likely be in favor.</p><p>But moreover, as mentioned above, this proposal is necessary to keep Micrsotrartegy’s current model going. Whatever happens in the future, this is the model that has 10x the company’s value in the last year.</p><p>The odds that every single other shareholder voted against this proposal are little to none.</p><p>Just to sum up, here are the important points some market participants are missing.</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The share raise will not mean imminent dilution</p></li><li><p>The dilution will be creative as long as it provides cheap financing and Bitocin keeps appreciating</p></li><li><p>The 10 billion share plan probably allows for a stock split down the road.</p></li><li><p>The proposal will almost definitely be approved.</p></li><li><p>Nothing significant has changed or will change regarding this proposal.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_1768124515\">MSTR Is The Better Bet</h2><p>Ultimately, I believe MSTR will continue to trade at a premium to Bitcoin, and in fact, there’s an argument to be made that MSTR will outperform the asset by a margin.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b7efa412bd047b3a476a90f96e27cf23\" alt=\"MSTR multiplier (mstr-tracker)\" title=\"MSTR multiplier (mstr-tracker)\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"515\"/><span>MSTR multiplier (mstr-tracker)</span></p><p>The chart above shows the evolution of MSTR’s premium over the Bitcoin price. Warm colored dots represent the most recent data, while the cold and blue tonnes are the oldest data.</p><p>We can see that the premium has fallen in the last few weeks, and it now stands a little below 2.</p><p>At its peak, this measure was even above 3. This means we could see MSTR’s share price appreciation by at least 50% just due to this, taking the stock price back to new ATHs.</p><h2 id=\"id_205596986\">Technical Analysis</h2><p>Based on TA, I think MSTR has room to go to $1000, at least.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a4e944f568beb32badd663ce4a72d6c4\" alt=\"MSTR TA (Trendspider)\" title=\"MSTR TA (Trendspider)\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"712\"/><span>MSTR TA (Trendspider)</span></p><p>Looking at the chart, I’d argue there’s a good set-up here to go long. It seems like a wave iv consolidation could be complete and the MACD is flipping bullish.</p><p>Now, I measured the rally all the way to wave iii from the bottom of wave iv. According to EW, a possible target for the wave v would be the 0.618 ext, which projects us just above $1000.</p><p>After that, however, we could have completed an even larger impulse, meaning MSTR could be ready to pull back.</p><h2 id=\"id_306738414\">Risks</h2><p>The risks with Microstrategy continue to be those I outlined in my last article. MSTR can’t afford a bear market.</p><p>This could lead to further dilution, a loss of its current premium and even a Bitcoin discount. Though the company would survive, investors have to be aware that the downside could be substantial.</p><h2 id=\"id_621639285\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>All in all, I think we have further room to go in Bitcoin in the immediate future, and MSTR will likely amplify these returns.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1728464409321","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>MicroStrategy's Trillion Dollar Bitcoin Bet Is Not What It Seems (Upgrade)</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicroStrategy's Trillion Dollar Bitcoin Bet Is Not What It Seems (Upgrade)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-01-17 10:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4749999-microstrategy-trillion-dollar-bitcoin-bet-not-what-it-seems-upgrade><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryMicrostrategy  has dipped 15% while Bitcoin only fell 5%, presenting a buying opportunity as MSTR trades at a relative discount.MSTR plans to increase authorized shares from 330 million to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4749999-microstrategy-trillion-dollar-bitcoin-bet-not-what-it-seems-upgrade\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSTR":"MicroStrategy"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4749999-microstrategy-trillion-dollar-bitcoin-bet-not-what-it-seems-upgrade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135736311","content_text":"SummaryMicrostrategy  has dipped 15% while Bitcoin only fell 5%, presenting a buying opportunity as MSTR trades at a relative discount.MSTR plans to increase authorized shares from 330 million to 10.33 billion to continue funding Bitcoin purchases, which is not immediately dilutive.Shareholders, led by Saylor, are likely to approve the share increase, ensuring MSTR's current business model continues.MSTR is expected to outperform Bitcoin, potentially appreciating by 50% and reaching $1000 based on technical analysis and premium trends.peshkovThesis SummaryMicroStrategy Incorporated has come down around 15% in the last month, which is interesting when we consider that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has only been down around 5%.Has MSTR lost its secret sauce? Is it still a better investment than Bitcoin?The recent dip certainly provides an enticing buying opportunity, and I do believe MSTR will outperform Bitcoin in the coming months.I highlighted potential risks in my last article, but with Bitcoin likely heading higher from here and MSTR now trading at a “relative discount,” this could be a good time to buy.I am upgrading to a Buy, though ultimately, I consider MSTR a trade, and Bitcoin an investment.MSTR’s Big Bold BetIf we look at Bitcoin and MSTR’s performance over December, we can actually see a notable divergence.MSTR and BTC (TV)While MSTR fell over 21%, Bitcoin actually ended December almost flat. What’s the reason behind this?Though MSTR has come to be known as a Bitcoin proxy, investors should remember that MSTR is also a company, and companies have their own unique set of challenges and catalysts.In this particular case? A 30x increase in the number of authorized shares.Yes, on December 23rd, MSTR filed form Pre-14A with the SEC, which outlines a plan to increase Class A common stock shares from 330 million to 10.33 billion.This may sound scary, and I believe many investors may misunderstand the implications.Let’s break it down before we start panic selling.Why Is MSTR Doing This?The answer to this should be pretty obvious. MSTR’s business model today relies on raising money and buying Bitcoin. It does this in two ways, and both ways require shares.Microstrategy funds its Bitcoin purchases through convertible bonds or share sales, but the company is almost tapped out.Including fully diluted shares, the company has around 280 million shares outstanding, leaving only around 50 million left before it reaches the 330 million limit.Will It Be Dilutive?So, there are two issues here that may have, at least momentarily, broken the MSTR secret sauce, by which MSTR can acquire Bitcoin which is valued at a premium on its balance sheet.On one hand, there’s a degree of uncertainty here. Will this get approved? We’ll answer this below. More imminently though, it seems like some people are thinking this will be very dilutive, but that’s a misunderstanding.Firstly, dilution is precisely what you want in this business, and if you aren’t on board with it, then you shouldn’t be investing in this company. Secondly, just because MSTR raises potential shares to 10.3 billion doesn’t mean it will automatically use all of this new financing potential.It would be completely detrimental for the company to do this. If MSTR flooded the market today with 10 billion new shares, it could raise around $3.5 trillion, if the market could absorb them all at today’s price.Is this realistic? Of course not, this would crash the share price, and in turn hurt their convertible bond strategy and future financing potential.MSTR will gradually keep things going with its convertible bonds and ATM offerings to make the most out of its shares.Ultimately, it could even raise more than $3.5 trillion through the upcoming years.More likely, this is the kind of path we will see.MSTR dilution forecast (CCN)This table above also accounts for the fact that the company will probably do another stock split at $1000 share price.Will Shareholders Approve The Move?Yes, this is very likely. For starters, Saylor controls a little under 50% of the voting rights, and he will likely be in favor.But moreover, as mentioned above, this proposal is necessary to keep Micrsotrartegy’s current model going. Whatever happens in the future, this is the model that has 10x the company’s value in the last year.The odds that every single other shareholder voted against this proposal are little to none.Just to sum up, here are the important points some market participants are missing.The share raise will not mean imminent dilutionThe dilution will be creative as long as it provides cheap financing and Bitocin keeps appreciatingThe 10 billion share plan probably allows for a stock split down the road.The proposal will almost definitely be approved.Nothing significant has changed or will change regarding this proposal.MSTR Is The Better BetUltimately, I believe MSTR will continue to trade at a premium to Bitcoin, and in fact, there’s an argument to be made that MSTR will outperform the asset by a margin.MSTR multiplier (mstr-tracker)The chart above shows the evolution of MSTR’s premium over the Bitcoin price. Warm colored dots represent the most recent data, while the cold and blue tonnes are the oldest data.We can see that the premium has fallen in the last few weeks, and it now stands a little below 2.At its peak, this measure was even above 3. This means we could see MSTR’s share price appreciation by at least 50% just due to this, taking the stock price back to new ATHs.Technical AnalysisBased on TA, I think MSTR has room to go to $1000, at least.MSTR TA (Trendspider)Looking at the chart, I’d argue there’s a good set-up here to go long. It seems like a wave iv consolidation could be complete and the MACD is flipping bullish.Now, I measured the rally all the way to wave iii from the bottom of wave iv. According to EW, a possible target for the wave v would be the 0.618 ext, which projects us just above $1000.After that, however, we could have completed an even larger impulse, meaning MSTR could be ready to pull back.RisksThe risks with Microstrategy continue to be those I outlined in my last article. MSTR can’t afford a bear market.This could lead to further dilution, a loss of its current premium and even a Bitcoin discount. Though the company would survive, investors have to be aware that the downside could be substantial.Final ThoughtsAll in all, I think we have further room to go in Bitcoin in the immediate future, and MSTR will likely amplify these returns.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":17,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}