To The Moon

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his second term, one of the early controversies involves his stance on TikTok, the popular social media platform owned by ByteDance. Trump has proposed an executive order to extend the TikTok ban deadline, suggesting a scenario where the U.S. could own half of TikTok through a joint venture. This article explores the legal, political, and financial implications of such a move, including the possibility of using earnings from the $TRUMP meme coin to finance this acquisition.

Trump's Executive Order and the TikTok Ban:

• Legal Framework: The existing law passed by Congress mandates that TikTok must be entirely divested from ByteDance or face a ban in the U.S. Trump's executive order to extend this deadline would be a temporary measure, but it cannot unilaterally override congressional legislation. The executive order might delay enforcement, giving time for negotiations or further legislative action.

• Supreme Court's Role: The Supreme Court upheld the TikTok ban law, focusing on national security concerns. An executive order proposing a 50% U.S. ownership does not align with this ruling, as the court's decision was based on the need for complete separation from Chinese influence. Any executive action that deviates significantly from this could invite legal challenges.

The 50% Equity Proposal:

• Contradiction with Legislation: Trump's idea of the U.S. holding 50% of TikTok directly conflicts with the congressional mandate for full divestiture. This shared ownership model does not address the national security concerns that led to the law's passage, as it would still allow ByteDance significant control.

• Congressional Reaction: Given the bipartisan support for the ban, Congress will likely resist any move that dilutes the requirement for complete divestiture. Lawmakers need convincing evidence that a 50% stake would mitigate all security risks associated with ByteDance's involvement.

• Political Feasibility: Trump's proposal might be seen as an attempt to keep TikTok operational while gaining political capital. However, without clear security assurances, this could face substantial pushback.

The $TRUMP Meme Coin and TikTok Acquisition:

• Financial Viability: The $TRUMP meme coin has seen significant speculative interest, with market caps fluctuating wildly. Even if Trump earned billions from this coin, converting this into a stable, usable fund for buying corporate equity would be fraught with challenges due to the coin's volatility and the complexities of cryptocurrency markets.

• Legal and Ethical Concerns: Using meme coin earnings, especially if done while in office, would raise serious ethical issues about conflict of interest, potential securities law violations, and the misuse of political influence for personal financial gain. The SEC could investigate if this move was perceived as an unregistered securities offering.

• National Security Review: Any deal involving significant foreign assets like TikTok would undergo scrutiny by CFIUS, which would likely view the use of meme coin proceeds as highly unconventional and possibly risky from a national security perspective.

Future of TikTok:

• Negotiation or Litigation: If TikTok and ByteDance agree to Trump's 50% ownership proposal, it would lead to a legal and political battle over whether this arrangement satisfies U.S. national security concerns. Litigation might ensue if Congress or security officials disagree with the interpretation of "divestiture."

• Alternative Scenarios: TikTok might opt for a complete sale to a U.S. company or seek other investors who can provide the necessary assurances to the U.S. government. Alternatively, if no deal is struck, TikTok could face operational cessation in the U.S., with users possibly migrating to alternative platforms.

Conclusion:

Trump's vision for TikTok involves a complex interplay of law, politics, and finance. His executive order might extend the timeline, but his 50% ownership proposal does not legally or politically align with existing mandates. Using meme coin earnings to fund such a purchase adds layers of speculation and potential legal pitfalls. The future of TikTok in the U.S. remains uncertain, hinging on negotiations, legal interpretations, and the broader geopolitical relationship with China. Whether Trump can pull off this maneuver or if TikTok will navigate another path will be one of the early tests of his administration's approach to technology, security, and international business.

@TigerWire