To The Moon

Alibaba is off to a stellar start this year—up 31.29% YTD, crushing the S&P 500’s 3.14% gain and even outpacing Meta’s 22.53% rally!

Is this the dark horse of 2025? Let’s break it down!

🎉 Huge congrats to @XiaoLaLa for locking in a $4,294 profit with $Alibaba(BABA)$!

Constantly retesting $103, signs of strength and bullishness 🚀 I am hopeful of BABA and its future in China.

🎉 Shoutout to @安不理波波 for an insane 690% profit on a BABA call!

🎉 Massive win for @Penny611 with 30,333 HKD in gains on $BABA-W(09988)$!

🔥 BABA Showing Strength

For the past five years, the S&P 500 has surged to record highs, but Alibaba struggled—every rally was crushed by bad news. Now, at current prices, much of the downside risk is already priced in. Key resistance around $70-$80 has been cleared, meaning weak hands are gone.

But avoiding losses isn’t enough—BABA needs to generate strong capital returns. If momentum holds, 2025 could be the year BABA reclaims its fair value.

💡 AI & Cloud: The Real Growth Drivers

China just had its "ChatGPT moment" with DeepSeek, and the AI race is heating up.

• Qwen’s affordability & AI-powered cloud growth position BABA for long-term gains.

• Alibaba Cloud’s revenue rose 7% YoY, with AI-driven growth accelerating.

• FY2026 revenue forecast: 8-10% growth, driven by AI and cloud monetization.

Alibaba’s real growth engine isn’t e-commerce anymore—it’s cloud computing. While domestic e-commerce (Taobao & Tmall) is saturated, international commerce is booming, up 29% YoY. Though still unprofitable (-¥2.9B), BABA is aggressively expanding overseas via AliExpress, prioritizing user growth over short-term profits.

Still, Alibaba Cloud dominates China, the world’s 2nd-largest cloud market, projected to grow from $85B in 2023 to $293B by 2027 (CAGR 36%). Despite just 4% global market share, BABA is expanding with new data centers in Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, and Mexico.

With $55.4B in cash, strong cash flow, and low net debt, Alibaba is well-positioned to scale its cloud and AI business globally.

⚠️ Risks & Challenges

• US trade tensions? Minimal impact—only 13.4% of BABA’s revenue comes from the US.

• Chip restrictions? A bigger concern, as they could slow Alibaba’s AI/cloud ambitions.

💬 Is 2025 the year BABA makes a comeback?

📈 What’s your target price for Alibaba? 👇

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