To The Moon

Bilibili (NASDAQ: BILI) posted strong Q4 2024 revenue of 7.73 billion yuan, marking a 22% year-over-year (YoY) increase from 6.34 billion yuan in the same period last year. This growth signals a potential recovery for the Chinese video-sharing platform, which has faced significant challenges in recent years.

The stock closed at $22.11 yesterday, surging 8.76% from the previous trading day. Over the past year, BILI has traded within a 52-week range of $9.63 to $31.77, reflecting its volatility and the broader uncertainty surrounding Chinese tech stocks.

Bilibili Inc. (BILI)

Key Factors to Consider for BILI’s Future Trajectory

1. Strong Revenue Growth but Profitability Concerns

While Bilibili's revenue growth is encouraging, the company has struggled with profitability. Investors remain cautious due to its historically weak earnings per share (EPS) and net income. Until Bilibili demonstrates a clear path to sustainable profits, some may hesitate to invest.

2. No Dividend Payments

Unlike some mature tech companies, Bilibili does not pay dividends, making it less attractive for income-focused investors. The stock is primarily a growth play, meaning investors are betting on future expansion rather than stable returns.

3. User Growth & Engagement

Bilibili has a loyal user base, particularly among China’s younger generations. Continued growth in monthly active users (MAUs) and engagement metrics could boost investor confidence. However, competition from platforms like Douyin (TikTok China) and Kuaishou remains a major challenge.

4. Regulatory & Economic Headwinds

Chinese tech stocks remain under pressure due to regulatory uncertainties and macroeconomic conditions in China. Any further crackdowns on internet companies or weakening consumer spending could impact Bilibili’s long-term outlook.

5. Can It Reclaim $30?

For Bilibili to revisit the $30 level, it will likely need to:

• Sustain revenue growth while improving cost efficiency.

• Show progress toward profitability (e.g., narrowing losses or achieving breakeven).

• Maintain strong user engagement despite competition.

• Navigate China’s regulatory environment without major disruptions.

Final Thoughts

Personally, I wouldn’t buy BILI at this point, as the company’s financials don’t show strong profitability, and it lacks dividends. While the recent price surge is promising, long-term investors may want to wait for clearer signs of consistent earnings improvements before jumping in. That said, for those with a higher risk tolerance, BILI could present a compelling speculative opportunity if it continues its growth trajectory.