💰Weekly 8 Trading Themes and Related Target ETFs：FED,NVDA, BIG 7

This week's market focus will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the February retail sales data, which reflects economic strength. Looking back at last week's U.S. stock market, the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell by over 1,000 points, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ each declined by more than 2%.

1. The three major indices hit six-month lows.

Compared to this year's peak, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has dropped by more than 10%, entering a correction zone.

The market generally expects that the Fed will maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged this time and is also focused on the economic forecasts the Fed will release, which will have important implications for the market. The U.S. will release February retail sales data on Monday. The market expects a 0.6% increase in February retail sales. The 0.9% year-on-year decline in January retail sales caught the market's attention. Wells Fargo economist Jay Bryson pointed out that the January data was affected by the post-Christmas season effect in December, so February is expected to better reflect the overall retail growth situation. If the data is disappointing, it may put further downward pressure on the stock market.

2. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting

The Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The market generally expects that the Fed will maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged this time because it needs to patiently observe the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation.

In addition to the interest rate decision and the press conference by Fed Chair Powell, the Fed will also release its latest economic forecasts, including the new interest rate "dot plot." Since the market expects the Fed to take action only in June, the focus will be on how policymakers predict interest rates going forward. Currently, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by 0.25% each this year, but whether this should be adjusted will be guided by the latest economic forecasts, including the Fed officials' estimates for the year-end interest rate, which can indicate their expectations for the magnitude of rate cuts.

3. The new round of U.S. earnings season will influence market sentiment.

In terms of performance, the market will focus on $Nike(NKE)$ , $FedEx(FDX)$ , and $Micron Technology(MU)$ this week.

Amid ongoing economic uncertainty, this week's important blue-chip earnings will provide a glimpse into corporate health. FedEx and Nike, as logistics and retail giants, will demonstrate how they have adapted to recent market dynamics, while Micron Technology will showcase how it continues to leverage the AI wave. These corporate earnings are crucial as they can impact market investment confidence, especially when rising costs pose challenges to industry profitability.

4. "Big Seven Tech Giants" will still determine the direction of the U.S. stock market.

Citigroup strategist Scott Chronert believes that the performance of the "Big Seven Tech Giants" will still determine the direction of the U.S. stock market. These stocks account for 30% of the S&P 500 index, and recently, large-cap tech stocks have underperformed the broader market. For a rebound in U.S. stocks, it is expected that the stock prices of the Big Seven Tech Giants will need to improve.

Nvidia, Alphabet (Google's parent company), Amazon, Meta, Apple, and Microsoft have each declined by more than 20% compared to their one-year highs, while Tesla has plunged by over 50%.

5. The "fear of heights." of Chinese tech stocks

Since the Spring Festival, the strong performance of Chinese tech stocks has led to some investors' "fear of heights." The latest consumption-boosting special action plan launched by China is expected to provide a double boost for the new wave of stock market gains in mainland China and Hong Kong. Against the backdrop of export pressure, boosting consumption is beneficial for stimulating domestic demand and consolidating the economy. The concept of "stabilizing the stock market" is expected to enhance market confidence and provide a rationale for further stock market gains.

The consumption-boosting themed press conference to be held in China on Monday afternoon will further interpret the policy documents on consumption boosting. Attention will be paid to whether more policy details or numbers will be presented at the press conference.

6. Nvidia's GTC conference impact

This week will focus on the impact of $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 's GTC conference on the stock prices of Asian suppliers. TSMC's third-quarter 2024 cash dividend will go ex-dividend on March 18th. Whether TSMC will once again achieve a "rapid dividend fill" is highly anticipated by the market, with the actual performance expected to depend on the trend of U.S. stocks.

Nvidia's (NVDA-US) GTC conference will also take place on Tuesday (18th) in Asia time. The annual GTC conference of AI chip leader Nvidia (Nvidia, NVDA) will be held from today to Friday (17th to 21st). Group CEO Jensen Huang will also make an appearance to deliver a keynote speech on Wednesday (19th), sharing the future development of AI agents, robotics technology, and accelerated computing. This conference will also feature a China AI Day Chinese session and the first-ever "Quantum Day," bringing hope to investors. However, some analysts point out that although this GTC conference may provide a boost to related stocks, the impact may be short-lived, and ultimately, the focus will return to fundamental factors and the economic outlook.

7. Geopolitical risks has increased

Recently, the market's focus on trade concerns and geopolitical risks has increased, driving safe-haven funds into gold and pushing up gold prices. However, the U.S. dollar trend, Federal Reserve policy, and trade concerns will continue to influence market volatility, with the Fed's interest rate policy path remaining the key determinant of gold's medium- to long-term trend. Gold trading will focus on upcoming U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate meetings, and trade policy developments, all of which could determine the next direction for gold.

Related Target ETFs: $Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares(NUGT)$ (Gold Mining Industry), $Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares(DUST)$ (Gold Mining Industry), $Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares(JNUG)$ (Junior Gold Mining Industry), $Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares(JDST)$ (Junior Gold Mining Industry)

8. Goldman Sachs has lowered its oil price forecast

Goldman Sachs has lowered its oil price forecast because the tariff war has weakened the U.S. economic growth outlook, and OPEC and its allies are expected to increase production. Goldman Sachs now expects Brent crude oil prices to be around $71 per barrel by December, $5 lower than its previous forecast, and U.S. WTI crude oil futures to be around $67 per barrel. In a report on Sunday, Goldman Sachs analysts said that Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate between $65 and $80, with an average price of $68 expected for next year.

"Given the potential further escalation of the tariff war and the possible extension of OPEC+ production increases, our oil price forecast remains subject to downside risks," Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out. Goldman Sachs has lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for this year by 18%, to 900,000 barrels per day.

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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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