To The Moon

The first Trump administration’s latest round of tariffs on Chinese imports took effect early Sunday on 01 Sep 2019, potentially raising prices Americans pay for some clothes, shoes, sporting goods and other consumer goods. There is a 15% taxes apply to about $112 billion of Chinese imports. More than two-thirds of the consumer goods the United States imports from China now face higher taxes. 01 Sep Tariffs Directly Affect Many Consumer Goods For The First Time Trump’s 01 September 2019 duties hit $112 billion of imports that had not previously been directly targeted. Footwear, clothing, and textiles constitute more than a third of the value of the new targets. Most US imports of clothing and shoes from China had been spared thus far. But if we looked at the second Trump administration tariffs which might be hitting clothing and shoes from China. For 01 September 2019, we saw share of Chinese imports of textiles and clothing hit by Trump’s tariffs will suddenly jump from 10 to 87 percent. And for footwear, the coverage of Chinese imports will increase from 7 to 53 percent. If we looked closely, the tariffs increase is not limited to clothes and shoes. Compared to earlier Trump tariffs it only hit 29 percent of all consumer, or “final,” goods imported from China, 01 September duties expand that scope to 69 percent. Overall, Trump’s tariff reach is growing. Trump’s earlier duties avoided a lot of consumer goods by targeting imported parts and components instead. By September 2018, Trump’s tariffs already covered 82 percent of all imported inputs from China. Typical Effect Of Import Tariff -> Raise Prices The typical effect of an import tariff is to raise prices. For imported inputs like semiconductors or steel, these taxes mean higher costs for American businesses that use them to then provide other goods and services. Because Trump’s tariffs to date have focused on these imported parts, the main impact on the US economy has arisen through American companies finding it more difficult to compete with firms in other countries that do not face these tariffs on their inputs. And different US firms react in different ways. Some pass along the higher costs to end consumers in the form of higher prices. Others choose to earn lower profits, or to cut costs elsewhere, including by keeping wages low. Imposing tariffs directly on consumer products may mean that households see price increases even more quickly than has been the case thus far. Why It Might Be Different This Time? The tariffs implemented by the Trump administration in September 2019 might differ if reinstated today due to significant shifts in economic, political, and geopolitical contexts. We have the COVID-19 situation and also interest rates hike after 2019, so there will be concerns of inflation and now tariff-inflation have been mentioned. But is it true? Economic Conditions Inflation Concerns: Current high inflation could deter broad tariffs, as they risk exacerbating price increases for consumers and businesses. So we might expect Trump to go for a narrower and targeted tariffs as to avoid worsening economic strain, and we also need to watch when and how the rate cut will be played out. Supply Chain Realignments: Post-pandemic, companies have diversified supply chains away from China (e.g., to Vietnam or Mexico). New tariffs might focus on sectors still reliant on Chinese imports or emerging vulnerabilities. Political Landscape Domestic Priorities: Political focus may shift toward reshoring critical industries (e.g., semiconductors via the CHIPS Act) or green energy, leading to tariffs tailored to protect these sectors. Public Backlash: Lessons from 2019 show tariffs hurt certain voters (e.g., farmers, manufacturers). Future measures might include compensatory subsidies or exemptions to mitigate political fallout. Geopolitical Dynamics Strategic Competition: Tariffs could align with broader U.S.-China rivalry in tech (e.g., AI, 5G) or security, targeting high-tech goods rather than consumer products. Alliances vs. Unilateralism: The Biden administration emphasized multilateralism (e.g., Indo-Pacific alliances). Future tariffs might involve coordination with allies to counter Chinese practices, unlike Trump’s unilateral approach. Trade Policy Evolution Phase One Deal Outcomes: China’s failure to meet purchase commitments may lead to stricter enforcement mechanisms or alternative strategies, such as export controls or investment restrictions. WTO and Legal Challenges: Increased scrutiny of WTO compliance might pressure the U.S. to justify tariffs under global trade rules more rigorously. Sector-Specific Shifts Critical Industries: Tariffs may prioritize sectors deemed vital for national security (e.g., rare earth minerals, batteries) or economic leadership (e.g., clean tech). Retaliation Risks: China’s own advancements in tariffs and sanctions (e.g., export controls on gallium) could shape U.S. tariff strategies to avoid mutual harm. Global Context Energy and Food Security: Ongoing crises (e.g., Ukraine war) might influence exemptions for essential goods to stabilize global markets. Climate Goals: Tariffs could incorporate carbon border adjustments or penalties for environmentally harmful practices, aligning with climate agendas. What Are Some Stocks That Have Potential Amidst Volatility For Long Term $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ Even though we saw the volatility plagued the entire index overall, AMD had a tremendous rally so far, so it is not looking that terrible right now. We are seeing daily higher lows right now set it is not so bad anything above 102 looking for a daily higher low. There might be a possible further trend continuation, but we will need to see if it will come down and fill the gap around support near 107. Short-term moving average is what I like about AMD, we might see a weekly upswing with some good motion, as I would think it will be a weekly downtrend for a long term. I would think AMD is still very cheap and forward price to earnings very cheap and its PEG ratio is fantastic. We also need to consider the revenue and EPS growth rates with overall improving net margins free cash flow then revenue and EPS should be having some fantastic run rates in the next few years. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ We can see that SOFI is also giving up some of its gains it had in recent week but the daily uptrend is still maintained and there is a lot of room above the lows which could be anything above 11.77, it is looking for a higher low and the bulls are looking for a possible further attack into the resistance range. So this might be a big one for the bulls which is the 14 to 16 dollar range and a huge area of resistance support from way back. Currently the bulls are in short-term control of the short-term time frames. Not forgetting the bears are still in controls on the weekly, and if we see at the end of daily bounces daily and went into the a daily downtrend, and depending on the size of weekly move. If it could give around 50% bounce, then the bulls might have a good chance of saving and going into a new weekly uptrend. I am looking at 13 level while SOFI valuation is quite manageable if you take a long-term approach. I am holding onto my SOFI position which I have it around 7.60. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Building Daily Uptrend Amazon was down about 2.23%, but we saw a very nice bounce which Amazon was trying eventually to reset the daily uptrend reacting nicely from the 200 and the 12-EMA. Amazon have build a nice shelf which was its previous resistance and now become support, that is around 196 to 198 area. We can see that Amazon bulls are playing defense and trying to get the daily uptrend back. This might just be a very short blasted weekly bounce which we could see a lower high than a reset of its lows, on the weekly, the bears are definitely be in control, which we only see a 30% bounce as long as the bulls does not lose too much, we could see a recovery. Watch the oversold region as there might be some movements during 02 Apri and this might saw Amazon having a further downswing, that might give another opportunity to get more shares. I am holding AMZN for long term as their AWS and ecommerce should be leading the way post the tariffs era. Summary If 02 April ever to replay what we saw in September 2019, Any revival of 2019-style tariffs would likely be more targeted, strategically aligned with tech competition, and tempered by inflation risks. They might also involve multilateral coordination, sector-specific protections, and measures to cushion domestic impacts, reflecting lessons from past disruptions and evolving geopolitical priorities. Looking another way is Trump might soften some of the tariffs to differentiate which are U.S. preferred trading partner. Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think consumer sector could be affected much by the tariffs set to announced on 02 April. @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts. Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.