To The Moon

Bitcoin has once again surged, breaking above the $90,000 mark and trading around $93,700 at the time of writing. As global uncertainty continues to ripple through financial markets, the "digital gold" narrative surrounding Bitcoin has reemerged with intensity. Sentiment is red-hot — the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has risen to 72, deep in “greed” territory.

But not everyone is joining the party — and I count myself among the cautious. Despite the hype, I’m not holding Bitcoin, nor do I intend to buy it at these elevated levels.

Euphoria or Bubble Territory?

Bitcoin’s meteoric rise has always sparked debate. Supporters argue it’s a hedge against inflation, a decentralized store of value, and a key asset in a digitizing world. But at nearly $94,000, I believe we’re reaching frothy levels, where the risk of buying high and getting caught in a sharp correction is very real.

This is not to say Bitcoin can’t go higher — market psychology and momentum can drive prices beyond what seems rational. But history shows that when the crowd gets greedy, the risk of reversal increases sharply. The Fear & Greed Index at 72 suggests sentiment may be overheating.

Volatility and Speculation: Still Unsettling

Bitcoin remains highly volatile. Unlike equities, which are backed by earnings, cash flow, and tangible assets, Bitcoin is purely speculative, driven by supply/demand dynamics, sentiment, and narrative. This makes it extremely difficult to value or forecast reliably. For me, that’s a red flag.

The asset can drop 20–30% in days, often triggered by a single headline — be it a regulatory crackdown, a large liquidation event, or a tweet from a prominent figure. That kind of risk is difficult to stomach, especially for long-term capital.

Institutional Legitimacy vs. Retail Frenzy

Yes, more institutions have started entering the crypto space — with ETFs now available and some firms allocating a small portion of portfolios to Bitcoin. But that doesn’t change its core speculative nature. Even institutional investors are mostly trading around the hype cycles, not necessarily treating Bitcoin as a fundamental, long-term core asset like bonds or blue-chip stocks.

And while ETFs bring access and perceived legitimacy, they also increase the speed of inflows and outflows, potentially amplifying volatility rather than reducing it.

The Digital Gold Debate: Still Unproven

Bitcoin is often compared to gold, especially during periods of global uncertainty. While both are seen as non-sovereign stores of value, gold has a multi-millennia track record, deep liquidity, and is held by central banks — none of which apply to Bitcoin in the same way.

Bitcoin may one day establish itself as “digital gold,” but at this stage, I believe that narrative is still speculative. It hasn’t been truly tested in a major systemic crisis (like 2008), and its correlation to equities still tends to rise during liquidity crunches — not fall, as a safe haven should.

Why I’m Staying Out?

At current prices, I believe the risk-reward ratio doesn’t justify an entry. There’s no balance sheet, no earnings, and no dividends to fall back on. The price is purely based on what the next buyer is willing to pay. While that can work for short-term momentum traders, I prefer assets with underlying value and cash flows.

Personally, I’d rather have my capital in strong currencies or undervalued companies than in an asset that’s still driven largely by sentiment, not substance.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin’s rise to $90,000 is undeniably impressive, and for those who’ve ridden the wave, it’s been a rewarding journey. But for new investors looking to enter now, caution is warranted. The market feels overheated, the asset remains wildly volatile, and the long-term fundamentals are still heavily debated.

I’m not buying Bitcoin at these levels — not because I don’t believe in blockchain or digital assets in general — but because speculation without support from tangible performance or intrinsic value isn’t a risk I’m comfortable taking.

Sometimes, the best investment decision is deciding not to buy — especially when everyone else is.