๐ $SPY Punches Through $550 โ
Why This Matters
$SPY Charts:
1. Options Net Flow
2. Options Net Drift
3. YTD Daily $SPY with $VIX and Volume Shelf
4. $SPY Today's Biggest Trades
๐๏ธ April 25, 2025 | ๐$SPY Closed at $550.64 (+0.72%) $551 AH
๐ง This wasn't just another up day โ this was a technical breakout, institutional reshuffling, and momentum ignition all wrapped into one.
๐ง Technical Breakdown โ We Dive Deep
๐ถ Golden Triangle Retest + Bullish Confluence:
โ Broke out of descending yellow wedge and retested successfully.
โ Closed above SMA(20) at 554.46 and climbing.
๐ Rising regression channel intact, and we just cracked the psychological $550 resistance.
๐บ If this triangle resolves to the upside, $570+ becomes the next measured move target.
๐ VIX Watch:
The falling wedge in the VIX (โ ๏ธ white dashed) suggests we may get a volatility spike around FOMC (5/7), but for now the VIX is behaving, riding below 20 and looking like sub-18 is possible.
๐ RSI: 47 and rising. No divergence.
Plenty of room to run.
๐ Options Flow โ Money Speaks Before Price Does
๐งฎ Total Flow:
Calls: $1.20B
Puts: $1.15B
A true tug-of-war, but itโs what happened under the surface that tells the story...
๐ Net Drift Premium:
CALLS: -68M
PUTS: +45M
Translation: Smart money sold premium at highs โ expecting decay. But they didnโt chase puts hard either. Controlled exposure.
๐Time-Based Flow
2:00 PM: Monster PUT spikeโฆ market held steady.
3:30โ4:00 PM: Huge CALL flow surged + price accelerated โ a late-day confirmation rally.
๐งฒ Notables from the Tape:
$535W C โ bought at size as $SPY tested support.
$500W P โ Defensive hedge flow still present but not dominant.
$460P/$470P โ mid-May put spreads surged AFTER close, suggesting downside hedges in place, not urgent.
๐ Positioning Summary:
10.2M contracts traded โ DEAD EVEN CALL/PUT VOLUME
Net Premium: +54M inflow
OTM Calls bought > OTM Puts by nearly 2:1
Big boy trades post-close โ they want to ride this next wave.
๐โโ๏ธ Reclaim the Wave โ
April 2025โs Inflection Is Here
๐This was the moment.
After: A textbook Death Cross in March,Zweig Thrust ignition this week, And the breakout above $550...
...$SPY now stands ready to move toward the reversion zone at 570โ575. Thatโs where the real test lies โ above the SMA 50 & 200.
๐ฅ But remember:
FOMC May 7th
Mega Cap Earnings Next Week
13F Season by May 15th
Liquidity rotations and hedges will either confirm or fade this move โ but the path is now open.
๐งญ Final Take:
โThis wasnโt a squeeze โ it was a coordinated institutional reshuffling.
Big money doesn't chaseโฆ they plan.
They just opened the floodgates for Q2 rotation.โ โ JP_Money
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