To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$

As U.S. President Donald Trump nears the 100-day mark of his second term on April 29, 2025, the verdict is in—and it’s grim. Trump’s approval rating sits at a record-low 39%, the weakest start for any U.S. president in the last 80 years, per Pew Research. The stock market mirrors this discontent: from January 20 to April 25, the S&P 500 dropped 15.6%, the Nasdaq Composite fell into bear territory with a 20% decline, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed significant ground, per U.S. Bank data. The U.S. dollar index has also plummeted nearly 9%, per Reuters posts on X, reflecting global unease. This is one of the bleakest presidential starts of the 21st century. Can Trump turn the tide in Q2 with market-friendly policies, or is this the new normal? Let’s break it down.

A Rocky Start: The First 100 Days in Review

Trump’s second term kicked off with high expectations of pro-growth policies like tax cuts and deregulation, but his aggressive tariff agenda has stolen the show—and not in a good way. On April 2, Trump announced sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs, with rates as high as 145% on Chinese imports, triggering a global market meltdown. The S&P 500 lost $4 trillion in value by mid-March, per Reuters, and consumer sentiment hit a 12-year low, per The Economist. A brief 90-day tariff pause on April 9 sparked a 9.5% single-day rally in the S&P 500—the biggest since 2008, per The New York Times—but the relief faded fast as Trump doubled down on China-specific tariffs.

Trump’s approval rating of 39% reflects widespread discontent. A Quinnipiac poll found that 59% of Americans disapprove of his tariff policies, with 72% believing they’ll hurt the economy short-term, per NPR. His use of executive orders—over 90 in 100 days, the most in 40 years, per Kiplinger—has drawn criticism, with 51% of Americans saying he’s overstepping, per Pew Research. Add in controversial moves like mass deportations and clemency for January 6 insurrectionists, and Trump’s alienated even some Republicans, per The Miami Herald.

Market Impact: A Tale of Volatility

The stock market’s reaction has been brutal. The S&P 500’s 15.6% drop since inauguration is the worst start to a presidential term since 2009, per Investopedia. The Nasdaq has been hit hardest, down over 20% from its December 2024 high, driven by tariff fears and a tech sell-off. Tesla (TSLA), despite Elon Musk’s ties to Trump, slumped 44% in 2025 amid tariff woes and brand backlash, per Investopedia. The U.S. dollar index’s 9% drop reflects fears of economic slowdown and a flight from U.S. assets, exacerbated by Trump’s attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, per The New York Times.

Market Performance Snapshot

Q2 Outlook: Can Trump Steady the Ship?

With his approval rating in the gutter and markets reeling, Trump faces pressure to pivot. Here’s what might happen in Q2:

Potential Market-Friendly Policies

• Tariff Rollback: The 90-day pause showed Trump can blink—markets soared 9.5% that day. A more permanent rollback, especially on allies like Canada and the EU, could spark a sustained rally. Posts on X from @elliotrades suggest Trump aims to wrap up tariff talks by June, potentially ushering in a “prime buying season.”

• Tax Cuts and Deregulation: Trump’s campaign promises of lower corporate taxes and lighter regulations could boost sectors like banking and energy. Wells Fargo (WFC), for instance, is poised to benefit from reduced oversight, per Kiplinger.

• Fed Pressure: Trump’s attacks on Powell might force the Fed into rate cuts—75-100 basis points are expected in 2025, per UBS—potentially juicing equities.

Risks to Watch

• China Standoff: Tariffs on China at 145% show no signs of easing. China’s retaliation, like its 84% tariff on U.S. goods, could deepen the trade war, per PBS News.

• Recession Fears: JPMorgan pegs the odds of a global recession at 60%, up from 40%, due to tariff shocks, per the BBC. A U.S. slowdown would tank markets further.

• Policy Chaos: Trump’s unpredictable style—on-again, off-again tariffs, executive overreach—keeps investors on edge. The VIX hit its highest since August, per Reuters.

Visualizing the S&P 500’s Plunge

This chart shows the S&P 500’s steady descent, with a sharp drop post-February as tariffs took hold.

The Verdict: A Fragile Path Forward

Trump’s first 100 days have been a masterclass in chaos—tariffs, executive overreach, and global backlash have tanked his approval and the markets. Q2 offers a chance to stabilize if Trump dials back tariffs and delivers on tax cuts, but his track record suggests unpredictability. The S&P 500 could rebound to 5,800 by June if trade tensions ease, but a deeper slide to 4,800 isn’t off the table if the trade war escalates. For now, Trump’s legacy is one of volatility—investors should brace for more.

What’s your take? Will Trump pull a market miracle in Q2, or are we in for more pain? Share your thoughts below!

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