East Rising, West Declining? How Did Buffett Warn of Trade Deficits in US?

Recently, more voices have discussed the idea of “East rising, West declining.”

Today, People's Bank of China (PBoC) unveiled 10 comprehensive monetary policy measures across three categories. China stocks opened high and then closed down.

  • Quantitative measures: Includes actions like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts to increase medium- to long-term liquidity and ensure abundant market liquidity.

  • Price-based measures: Involves lowering key policy interest rates, reducing rates on structural monetary tools, and cutting public housing fund loan rates.

  • Structural tools: Introducing and strengthening targeted monetary tools to support innovation in science and technology, boost consumption, and expand inclusive finance.

In 2003, Warren Buffett told a story about two fictional islands: “Squanderville” and “Thriftville.” $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$

Thriftville worked hard, exported food to Squanderville, and in return received Squanderville’s bonds.

Over time, Thriftville accumulated so much debt that it eventually stopped holding bonds and started acquiring land — shifting economic sovereignty without a war, simply through purchases. Buffett used this story to warn about the dangers of persistent U.S. trade deficits.

Back in 2003, there was no real “Thriftville.” But listening to this story again in 2025, should we start taking the “East rising, West declining” narrative more seriously?

If the shift from West to East is real, then isn't the key question when it will happen?

How do you view this?

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# HKD Strengthens: Can China Stocks' Rally Continue?

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  • MHh
    ·2025-05-07
    TOP
    Trumps knows the trade deficits and so by implementing tariffs, he hopes to create a new global order. He is not that crazy that many think he is. The real dealbreaker is whether this will pull through. He probably never expect China to retaliate, unlike in his first term as president. He doesn’t want a trade war where his own economy will suffer. He just wants to force parties to negotiate with him. I think the shift from West to east will definitely happen, but not in the next 5 or even 10 years. As long as the other countries cooperate with the US and US has a greater number of world on its side as it seems to be likely the case with many countries striking deals with it, and these countries trade more with the US than China, and the USD remains the preferred reserve currency, this shift won’t happen yet. China stocks will rally especially if talks with trump is successful but I believe it wil be short-lived as investors tend to be less confident in the Chinese market than the US.
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  • Mrzorro
    ·2025-05-07
    TOP
    The shift from West to East may happen one day, but I don't think it will come so fast, at least a few more years to go. China stocks may be a good investment, but not for me at the moment.
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    • koolgal
      Thanks for sharing your valuable insights 😍😍😍
      2025-05-08
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  • SG 88
    ·2025-05-08
    TOP
    Trumpiodic clearly shows the losing end would be the The United States and its citizens.
    They are the only would bear the cost of tariffs, not Chine, not Canada, not the other countries.
    Trump only view his position as the United States President top priority.
    Image the world where every US citizen can't buy what they want but only limited to what they can afford?
    Inflation would spiral, goods become scared and expensive to consume, and US only trade within their own States?
    This is the hard truth, economically and sociologically.
    No one in the world would benefit from Trade War, let alone any war.
    Dictatorship won't will the battle, its only worsen the bilateral relation between countries and brings only global recession.
    @Blinkfans @koolgal @MillionaireTiger @JC888 @BillionaireN
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    • koolgal
      Thanks for sharing your valuable insights 🥰🥰🥰
      2025-05-08
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  • Zarkness
    ·2025-05-08
    TOP
    这只是一个讨价还价的筹码,真正的举措不在于创造就业机会,重要的是钱!不相信?如果你真的能找到贸易战之前、贸易战期间和贸易协议之后的数据,你就会看到钱去了哪里!!只要检查特朗普和相关,看看他们的账户发生了什么!!
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    • Zarkness
      是你教得好🥰🥰🥰
      2025-05-08
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    • koolgal
      感谢😍😍😍分享您的宝贵见解
      2025-05-08
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  • 1PC
    ·2025-05-07
    TOP
    if the shift from West to East were to happen and When [Thinking]....let's seek the magic crystal 🔮.... [Thinking] I see .... 🤔....some signs appearing..... Ah Ha.... by the end of the Next 🐉🐲 cycle [Smart]..... in the meantime, shift to the HK markets when opportunities arises 🙏
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    • koolgal
      I would like to have the magic crystal please 🥰🥰🥰
      2025-05-08
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  • koolgal
    ·2025-05-08
    🌟🌟🌟A strengthening HKD appears to be a positive sign for the region, both as a marker of renewed capital flows and as an indicator of broader investor confidence in Asian, especially Chinese markets.

    With a supporting backdrop of pro growth policies, innovation driven sectors and increased capital flow, I believe that the China stocks rally has the potential to continue.

    However it is important to remain mindful of global economic uncertainties and the inherent risks in a market transitioning from a period of weakness to optimism.

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  • vuvence IX
    ·2025-05-09
    The west has been around for a very long time, eg: Greeks & Romans. The west, although geographic is more of a blueprint for co-existence. If the current manifestation of the west is in decline, why is the rest of the world falling over each other to immigrate to the following countries
    USA
    Australia
    UK
    Canada
    New Zealand

    why those countries???

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  • vuvence IX
    ·2025-05-09
    The West is in decline has been around for years, however why is the rest of the world falling over itself to immigrate to the following countries.
    USA
    UK
    Australia
    Canada
    New Zealand

    Why???

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  • GoodLife99
    ·2025-05-08
    关于美国经济衰退的讨论已经持续了相当长一段时间。尽管许多人希望这种情况不会发生,但风险仍然迫在眉睫——特别是如果计划中的关税生效的话。这可能是沃伦·巴菲特持有如此大量现金的原因之一——可能是为市场低迷或更好的投资机会做准备。

    毫不奇怪,东方经济体开始崛起,即使目前只是温和的。他们的势头可能会在短期内加强,尽管一些疑虑仍然存在。

    随着日常成本继续攀升,美国通胀可能会再次飙升,这可能会导致人们重新考虑假期等非必要支出。

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  • Success88
    ·2025-05-08
    China and US are big countries and lot of people. The shift is coming one day so that is no surprise with shift from west to east. As a investor we need to focus good company and invest in them.
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  • Star in the Sky
    ·2025-05-08
    nothing much will happen.. markets down markets up... we will used to it when it happens
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  • WanEH
    ·2025-05-07
    I think those technology related company may continue to rise up. can buy and hold.
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  • ECLC
    ·2025-05-08
    当世界旋转时,一切皆有可能。
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  • AliceSam
    ·2025-05-07
    期待后续
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  • TheStrategist
    ·2025-05-07
    China vs USA
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