(8th May) The Silent Rally 90% Missed
The S&P 500’s late-day rebound yesterday wasn’t random—it could be traced to Trump’s comments about easing global chip restrictions, giving semiconductor stocks (and the broader tech sector) a much-needed boost. NVIDIA ($NVDA), a key AI bellwether, jumped to its highest level since late March on the news and i’m hopeful $NVDA to move up to $120-$122 though ARM’s (-6.8%) post-close warning reminded us that not all tech names are out of the woods yet.
Key Takeaways from Wednesday’s Session
- Tech’s Policy-Driven Rebound: The chip-curbs discussion provided a catalyst for beaten-down semis, though selectivity remains critical (as ARM’s drop shows).
- FOMC Non-Event: The Fed’s unanimous vote and steady messaging reinforced the "wait and see" stance—but policy is in good place without new hawkish surprises, markets exhaled after.
- Treasuries Join the Rally: Falling yields (10-year below 4.5%) suggest growth is still intact.
What’s Next? A Path to 5,700+
The SPX’s showed strength to hold above 5,600 and push through 5,655 would signal the next leg up toward 5,700+, likely by early next week. Two tailwinds support this:
1. Technical Setup: The index is coiled after recent pause, with semiconductors ($SOXX) showing renewed leadership.
2. Macro Backdrop: Tariff uncertainties linger, but the Fed’s neutral tone and softer yields reduce near-term equity headwinds.
Bottom Line
With tech finding a bid, yields retreating, and the Fed on hold, the setup favors a grind higher into the week.
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