S&P500 Surges 21%--The Rally Nobody Belived In.
The S&P 500's powerful 21% surge from its April lows has pushed the index above 5,900 meeting our targets that was shared daily yet investor conviction remains surprisingly muted. This disconnect between price action and sentiment may present opportunities for disciplined investors.
The Rally in Perspective
- 21% gain in 25 trading days (nearly 1% daily)
- Break above 5,900 marks year-to-date positive territory
- Weekly MACD gaining momentum
1. Improving Market Breadth
- 50% of SPX components now above 200-day MA
- Equal-weight participation strengthening
2. Persistent Skepticism
- Hedge fund positioning remains cautious
- CTA exposure still below historical norms
3. Technical Strength
- No significant divergence signals yet
- Momentum indicators support continuation
While the velocity of the advance warrants caution, the absence of euphoria suggests this rally may have some room to run. The key question isn't whether to participate, but how to do so prudently:
The market's ability to climb this far amid skepticism may be its most telling characteristic. As always, intraday price action remains forward-looking data to guide us.
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- littlesweetie·05-15Incredible insights! Thanks for sharing! [Wow]LikeReport