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$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ $Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$ $NANO Nuclear Energy Inc(NNE)$ 🌍🧲📈 MP Materials: Rebuilding Global Power One Rare Earth at a Time 📈🧲🌍

As at 29 May 2025, 🇳🇿 NZST

MP Materials ($MP) is shaping up as one of the most geopolitically leveraged trades on my radar. What began as a routine technical bounce has evolved into a strategic re-rating thesis. Rare earths, once obscure, are now the backbone of national security, energy independence, and AI infrastructure, and $MP is uniquely positioned at the nexus.

Let’s break down the data, the narrative, and the roadmap forward!:

📉 Technical Setup: Compression Before Expansion

After peaking at $29.72, $MP retraced sharply and is now consolidating at $19.54. Price is compressing inside a broadening formation, where volatility increases and investor consensus evaporates, historically setting the stage for aggressive breakouts.

   •   30-week MA: $21.87, acting as overhead resistance

   •   MACD: Bearish but flattening, signalling deceleration in downward momentum

   •   RSI (24-week): 47.94, midrange and reset

   •   Volume spike: +18% above average on 22 May, often a sign of accumulation

🧠 Term reference:

   •   Broadening formation: Expanding highs/lows indicating volatility and positioning battles

   •   MACD: Moving Average Convergence Divergence, used to spot trend shifts

   •   RSI: Relative Strength Index, momentum oscillator (neutral at 50)

If $20.80 breaks on volume, I see a stair-step advance toward $23.40 and $25.00 🪜

💰 Options Flow: Institutional Footprints Are Clear!

On 28 May:

   •   39,846 calls traded ~ 11x expected volume

   •   Implied volatility rose 5 pts to 75.59%

   •   Dominant positions on Jul25 $25 and Jan26 $40 calls

   •   Put/Call ratio = 0.03 ~ 97% call dominance

📈 Interpretation:

This is textbook pre-positioning for a catalyst. High-strike, long-dated calls are rarely retail. No meaningful put protection implies asymmetric upside exposure ~ often preceding earnings upgrades, M&A, or macro policy pivots.

🌐 Geopolitics: A Rare Earth Revolution Begins

On 14 May, $MP signed a memorandum with Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden to build an end-to-end rare earth supply chain, mining, refining, and magnet production, all hosted within the Gulf.

📍 Why it matters:

   •   Reduces reliance on China’s 90% control of REE refining

   •   Enables U.S.–Gulf critical material flows

   •   Supports surging demand from AI, EVs, and military applications

📌 Announced alongside:

   •   $600B in U.S.–Saudi investment deals

   •   Gulf ambitions to make mining the “third economic pillar”

MP is no longer a North American miner. It’s becoming a sovereign-level supplier.

💡 Analyst Valuation: Floor Is Set, Ceiling’s Unpriced

   •   Current: $19.54

   •   12-mo avg 🎯 target: $27.06 (+38.49%)

   •   High: $32.00

   •   Breakdown (12 analysts):

🟢🟢 Strong Buy: 33%

🟢 Buy: 42%

🟠 Hold: 25%

🔴  Sell: 0%

📌 Recent actions:

   •   Morgan Stanley: Hold, PT $23

   •   Deutsche Bank: Hold, PT $20

🧠 My take:

These are conservative anchors based on commodity pricing, not geopolitics or forward options skew. I expect rerating if Saudi logistics and Gulf scaling updates come through in Q3.

🔥 Short Interest: Coiled and Crowded

   •   Short interest: 53.32M shares

   •   Short % of float: 29.60%

   •   Days to cover: 17.26

   •   Short ratio: 23.68

🚨 Why it matters: This is a primed squeeze setup. If MP triggers a volume breakout above $20.80, shorts could get forced out rapidly, fuelling price acceleration and gamma exposure from the options chain!

🧾 Fundamentals: Mispriced Resilience

Despite profitability weakness, $MP posted $52.1M in Q1 revenue, nearly flat YoY, a remarkable result given rare earth pricing pressure.

✅ Moat expansion:

   •   Only US-listed REE miner with end-to-end capabilities

   •   New Gulf access to logistics, capital, and foreign reserves

   •   Defence-related exposure adds non-cyclical upside

This isn’t a speculative junior, it’s a cash-flowing firm with national-level leverage!

🧭 Forward Watchlist

Technical Levels to Watch 📈

   •   Support: $19.50, $18.40

   •   Resistance: $20.80 (breakout trigger), $23.40, $25.00 📈

Catalysts (Ranked by Impact Potential)

1. U.S.–Saudi military-industrial alignment

      •   Justification: Institutional capital + sovereign trade flow → REE security

2. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S.–China trade and export escalation

      •   Risk: Tariffs, restrictions, or REE bans → bullish for MP

3. AI hardware and EV demand surge

      •   Evidence: Nvidia’s UAE expansion and Tesla’s motor magnet contracts

4. Gulf infrastructure investment in materials tech

      •   Includes: Ta’adir project, DEWA tech corridor

5. Earnings o 7 August 2025

      •   Opportunity for guidance upgrade on Saudi ops and volume expansion

🧠 Final Thesis: The Rare Earth Repricing Has Begun

MP is transforming from a cyclical commodity play into a strategic cornerstone. With institutional call flow, a rare geopolitical alliance, and record short interest, this is not a bounce, it’s a staged breakout from the old global supply model.

Everyone in 🇨🇳 China might have a robot in 5 years. If every American wants one too, it’s time to accelerate the rare earth magnet supply chain!

The Next Strategic U.S. Supply Chain Revival is Rare Earths & $MP

The U.S. is waking up to its vulnerability in critical materials. After energy independence via $LEU and nuclear, rare earth elements are next! There is only one serious player on 🇺🇸 U.S. soil: MP Materials

Rare earths are the backbone of everything from EVs to defense systems, wind turbines to AI data centers. Without them, there is no decarbonization. No military readiness. No tech dominance.

🇨🇳 China controls ~85% of global supply. That's a national security risk!

If $20.80 breaks with volume, I see a swift run to $27, with upside to $32+ if catalysts converge. The risk/reward is no longer speculative, it’s asymmetric.

📣 What would a world look like where rare earth supply is weaponised like oil once was? Because that’s the world MP is now trading in!

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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