To The Moon

⚡ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$   pops 20 %—time to hedge or fade the fear?

The Israel-Iran headlines jolted the “fear gauge” from 14 to 16-plus—its biggest one-day jump in months. The CNN Fear & Greed Index is still in “Greed” at 61, a classic warning that complacency may be peaking.

Why a little protection makes sense

1. Vol has been crushed all year: VIX < 15 most of Q2 means short-vol trades are crowded.

2. Dealer gamma flip: Once VIX clears ~17, options desks switch from net sellers to net buyers of volatility, amplifying moves.

3. Macro landmines: CPI tomorrow, then the Fed's dot plot—either could send VIX toward 18–20 quickly.

Picking your weapon

VIXY (1× long-vol ETN)

• Slower decay; best for a 1- to 4-week hedge.

UVXY (1.5× leveraged)

• Pops harder on day-one spikes but bleeds fast—hit-and-run only.

Index put spreads

• Buy an SPY 595 put, sell 575 to cap cost; less decay than outright puts.

Trade map I'm running

Starter VIXY at 16 handle, target exit if VIX touches 19–20.

UVXY 18 calls (Jun 28) at 0.60, aiming for a quick double on any gap-down flush.

Offset decay by writing UVXY 30 calls if UVXY spikes above 25.

Exit rules

Close 75 % of hedge once VIX tags 20 or retreats below 15.

Roll the rest only if CPI is hot and the Fed stays hawkish.