To The Moon

A veteran investor with a 90% win rate over 10 years once remarked: “The key to investing is to stop being clever.” That statement cuts deep—especially when many investors mistakenly believe outsmarting the market is their edge. But as you're about to see, even smart people can—and do—lose money. The real question is: what phase are you in your investing journey?

🧭 The Four Phases of a Market Cycle

Markets move in four distinct phases: Accumulation → Markup → Distribution → Markdown

Smart money typically enters during accumulation when prices are flat—scanning for value. Retail investors often dive in during markup, driven by fear of missing out (FOMO). Yet entering at the top can lead to losses as distribution and markdown follow.

🤯 Why Even Smart Investors Lose

1. Return-chasing behaviour: Many investors buy into hot funds or stocks after they’ve soared—often a losing move.

2. Emotional trading: Greed during a bull run, fear during downturns.

3. Over-trading: Frequent trading often reduces net returns due to market noise and fees.

📈 Where You Might Be Now

• Newbies & dip-buyers: Buying every dip feels like a smart move—until it isn’t. Many jumped in when equities looked cheap, but that strategy breaks down if markets don’t recover fast.

• Macro learners: Watching earnings, policy, technical, sentiment—applying layered analysis.

• DCA Tigers: Dollar-cost averaging is your weapon. Regular buying lowers average cost over time and avoids timing pitfalls.

🛠 Three Archetypes of Investors Today

📊 Current Snapshot: Sample Stocks & Index

Let’s examine three popular holdings and how their prices reflect market sentiment (as of June 21, 2025):

• AAPL at $201 shows strength but hovers near resistance. If market momentum wanes, tech stocks may lead the downturn.

• TSLA remains range-bound—watch for breakouts or breakdowns to signal trend direction.

• SPY, representing the S&P 500, is close to its peak—suggesting either an upcoming pause or an overextended move.

🧩 Building a Smarter Plan

1. Know Your Phase: Are you entering after markup, or accumulating smartly?

2. Trade Your Plan: Define your entry, exit, size, and stop beforehand.

3. Use DCA or Contrarian Tactics: Automate buys or buy dips with confirmation.

4. Risk Management: Limit trades to 1–2% per position, diversify across sectors.

5. Mind the Psychology: Acknowledge emotions—set rules to avoid impulsive decisions.

🎯 Thought-Provoking Questions

• Are you chasing recent winners after they’ve peaked?

• Do you have a stop-loss or exit rule in place?

• Have you defined your risk per trade and position sizing?

• What phase is the broader market in—bullish markup, or topping?

⚠️ Final Takeaway

Smart people lose money when they ignore their own rules and chase emotions. Even with a 90% strategy edge, one reckless trade can outweigh many successes. Recognize your phase, trade your plan, manage risk—and consistently check your bias.

As always, Do Your Own Due Diligence and ensure risk management > prediction. Trade smart, stay adaptable, and don’t let emotions chase candles.