To The Moon

On the unpredictable path of trading U.S. stocks, even the sharpest minds lose clarity from time to time. Markets test our conviction daily, pulling us between the thrill of chasing highs and the dread of watching prices fall. We find ourselves stuck in a familiar cycle — the confident “I knew this would happen” followed by the hesitant “Maybe I’ll just wait a little longer.”

Take Circle Internet Financial (CRCL), for example. Since it went public, I’ve had my doubts. I was convinced it was overvalued and stayed on the sidelines. I told myself, "There’s just not enough historical data — too much risk for my taste." But the market had other plans. CRCL surged, gaining more than 20% just today and breaking through another 52-week high. I was wrong. And honestly? That’s okay. I know my investing style: I’m risk-averse, especially with newly listed companies. The price at IPO was far lower, yes — but that doesn't change the fact that I acted in line with my own principles.

Circle Internet Corp. (CRCL)

The same thing happened with tech giants like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). I once believed the AI-driven buzz surrounding them was temporary, a hype cycle that couldn’t possibly last. I chose not to buy. Looking at their long-term trajectory now, it’s easy to say I missed out. But again, I feel no regret. My rule is simple: I don’t buy at elevated prices just because of momentum. If that means missing a rocket ship or two, so be it.

Alphabet (GOOG)

NVIDIA (NVDA)

Then there’s TLT, a holding I did commit to. I was confident that inflation would come down, the Fed would pivot, and bond prices would rise accordingly. I waited patiently. But macroeconomics is rarely that simple. Rate cuts came slower than expected, and new concerns like tariffs crept in. Still, I sleep well holding TLT. It provides steady, reliable dividends and that’s part of the value I seek in my portfolio.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Here's the truth: No one gets it right all the time. Markets are humbling. Sometimes we nail it, sometimes we miss and sometimes we simply choose not to play. What matters more is understanding our own temperament and strategy. That’s how we stay in the game.

So, have I fallen for classic market illusions? Absolutely. We all have. But every misjudgment teaches us something. Every “wrong call” helps refine our approach. And in the end, that self-awareness is the real win.