To The Moon

Public Holidays

There are no public holidays in China, Singapore, or Hong Kong.

America celebrates its Independence Day with markets closed from the afternoon of 3rd July 2025 till 4th July 2025. Here is wishing America peace and prosperity.

4th July 2024 Happy Independence Day, America (Source: https://arcticportal.org/ap-library/news/3598-happy-independence-day-america)

Economic Calendar (30Jun25)

Notable Highlights

• China's manufacturing PMI is not a mere reflection of China's economy but also of the global demand. The forecast of 49.6 implies contraction.

• Chicago PMI has a forecast of 42.7, which represents the continuous contraction since previous months. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI has a forecast of 52.0, which implies an expansion similar to the previous month. ISM manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing prices will also be announced in the coming week. The backdrop of manufacturing contraction, compounded by an increase in manufacturing prices, will continue to add costs and challenges to the manufacturing sector.

• S&P Global Services PMI is expected to be 53.1, which implies an expansionary outlook. ISM non-manufacturing PMI and ISM non-manufacturing prices will also be released in the coming week. The forecast is suggesting some growth in the non-manufacturing sector, aka services.

• The other most-watched data would be the JOLTS job openings and the ADP non-farm employment changes. Other important employment data will include average hourly earnings, unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls.

• Initial jobless claims will be announced. The previous was 245K. This weekly report tracks the number of new unemployment claims, serving as a leading indicator of labour market health. The Federal Reserve uses this as one of the key macro data references as it balances inflation and employment in the economy.

• Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. This event tracks the weekly change in U.S. crude oil inventories, a key indicator of oil supply and demand that can impact oil prices and energy markets. If the trend of excess inventories continues, demand erosion can lead to reduced production & weakened consumer spending.

Earnings Calendar (30Jun25)

Let us look at Quantum Corporation’s recent performance. This is the description of the business.

From investing.com, the analysts’ sentiment is neutral with a price target of $19.00. This suggests an upside of 110.18%. The technical analysis recommends a rating of “Strong Sell”.

Observations:

• Revenue has fallen from $553 million in 2015 to $312 million in 2024.

• Gross profit has fallen from $245 million in 2015 to $125 million in 2024.

• Operating profit started at $16 million in 2015 but ended in 2024 with a loss of $26 million. The company has been making losses since 2022.

• Earnings per share (EPS) started at $10.22 in 2015 to -$8.60 in 2024.

• With a -0.5 P/E ratio, the business continues to operate at a loss.

(The next section is made with help from Grok).

Over the past 10 years, Quantum Corporation has faced significant challenges, with revenue declining at a -7.1% CAGR and operating profits remaining negative, reflecting a shrinking market share in traditional data storage. EPS has worsened to -$8.60 in 2024, and the company does not pay dividends, focusing on survival rather than shareholder returns. The negative P/E ratio (-0.5) and poor ROA (-14.2%), ROE (19.5%), and ROIC (14.3%) indicate financial distress, though a low valuation (P/B -0.3, P/S 0.2) might attract value investors. Negative FCF and moderate leverage limit flexibility, but the stable gross margin (40% in 2024) suggests potential in niche areas like tape and software-defined storage. Quantum’s competitive advantages include its specialised storage solutions for archival and cloud backup, but its survival depends on adapting to market shifts, such as increased demand for cloud-native solutions, as of June 2025.

The forecast for the coming earnings’ EPS and revenue is -$0.01 and $93.1 million.

Given the above information, I prefer to avoid this stock even though analysts suggest an upside for the price.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (30Jun25)

Technical observations:

• MACD - a top crossover is completed, and this implies another rally in the cards.

• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend.

• Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term. We can expect the formation of a golden cross in the coming days. This is typically a bullish signal when backed with strong volume.

• The CMF is positive at 0.15, indicating more buying pressure over the past 20 periods.

The technical analysis shows a rating of “Strong Buy” from the daily interval.

20 indicators show a “Buy” rating, and no indicator shows a “Sell” rating.

Note that the Stochastic RSI is showing a “Sell” rating.

Here are the recent candlestick patterns.

Outlook from Candlestick patterns (from Grok):

• Short-Term Outlook: The emerging Evening Star and Bearish Engulfing patterns suggest a bearish short-term trend, with the S&P 500 likely to continue correcting. A break below 5,796.34 with high volume could accelerate the decline toward 5,629.83 (50 MA).

• Long-Term Outlook: The long-term trend is at a crossroads. The recent high of 6,000.36 and the current drop to 5,845.90 indicate a potential reversal. If the price holds above the 200 MA (5,796.34), the bullish trend could resume; otherwise, a deeper correction toward 5,629.83 or lower is possible.

• Actionable Insight: The bearish candlestick patterns suggest a short-term sell-off or consolidation. Traders should watch for a test of support at 5,796.34; a bounce from this level could signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a break below it with high volume may confirm a bearish shift. Monitor volume and MACD (which showed divergence on June 2) for confirmation of the next move.

The candlestick patterns indicate a shift to a bearish short-term outlook, with the longer-term trend at risk of turning neutral or bearish unless key support levels hold. The S&P 500 appears to be entering a correction phase following its recent peak.

From the technical analysis and candlestick patterns, the market can rally in the coming days. A double top looks to be forming, and a reversal is possible following this. The S&P 500 can range sideways.

News and my thoughts from last week (30Jun25)

95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise in the next year, according to a World Gold Council survey. A record 43% plan to boost their holdings. 73% expect USD reserves to drop. - X user Global Markets Investor

The turning points of wars can pivot on mistakes. Sometimes, it boils down to who makes the bigger mistakes. To assume that the enemies think like you can be fatal. But let us avoid war at all costs.

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick says the U.S.-China trade deal was signed a few days ago.

An important part of critical services requires redundancy and reliability. More importantly, this can be a key component of Business Continuity.

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Total shipments FELL 76% YoY in May, to 1,238 tons, the least since February 2020. Exports to the US FELL 92% YoY to 46 tons, and LESS than 1/10 of what was recorded in March. - X user Global Markets Investor

This is a reflection of the global consumption (especially in manufacturing and MRO). If this is sustained, we can find issues with breakdowns, repairs or even regular operations of machines that require these materials. China is the major producer.

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778 insiders sold shares this month through June 11, while 200 bought shares. In effect, the ratio of insider buyers to sellers dropped to 0.26, the lowest since November 2024. Is this profit taking or is there a deeper concern that the public has no access to?

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U.S. MAY NEW HOME SALES PLUNGE 13.7% M/M TO 623,000; EST. 694,000; PREV. 722,000 - Investing

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The gap between consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” and those saying they are “hard to get” FELL to the LOWEST since 2017, excluding 2020. It implies the unemployment rate could jump 1-2 percentage points in the next few months. - X user Global Markets Investor

Peter Thiel on why 70% of Millennials say they are pro-socialist: “When one has too much student debt or if housing is too unaffordable, then one will have negative capital for a long time… and if one has no stake in the capitalist system, then one may well turn against it.”

Is the population crisis a more immediate crisis than climate?

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The USD has now lost more than 10% of its value this year, its worst first half in almost 40 years

San Francisco in recent months had its largest decline in office vacancy since the first quarter of 2015 as artificial-intelligence companies occupied more space, according to preliminary second-quarter data from the real estate company CBRE. Vacancy dropped for a third consecutive quarter to 35.1% from 35.8% in the first quarter, the CBRE data show. - SF Examiner

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US Consumer Confidence fell sharply in June, to the 2nd-lowest in 4.5 YEARS. Expectations have dropped in 6 out of 7 months. Americans express growing concerns about tariffs and high prices, fueling deepening economic pessimism. X user Global Markets Investor

Container ship traffic from China to the US is falling sharply: Ships departing China for the United States dropped to the second-lowest level in 15 MONTHS. The traffic has been down over 50% since its peak in April. Demand for goods is declining amid tariffs. - X user Global Markets Investor

Retail investors bought a net $3.2 billion of equities over the last week, ending Wednesday. The largest buying was seen in the broad market, gold and energy ETFs. Interestingly, their allocation to Magnificent 7 is ~2%, historically low. - X user Global Markets Investor

Retail investors are going CRAZY: Penny stocks, a proxy for retail activity, accounted for 47.4% of the market volume on Thursday, an all-time high, according to Goldman Sachs' analysis. That's twice as high as in the 2020-2021 meme stock frenzy. X user Global Markets Investor

My Investing Muse (30Jun25)

Layoffs & Closure news

• FedEx to close 30% of package facilities as network integration ramps up. Redesign of express and ground delivery is already generating millions of dollars in savings. - FreightWaves

• Sabic, one of the world's largest petrochemical manufacturers, will shut its Olefins 6 cracker plant in Wilton, Teesside, after 46 years of it operating. The firm currently employs 330 people at the site. - BBC

• Accenture sees highest-ever quarterly drop in headcount, as numbers fall by ...; America's contributed the largest to total revenue - Times of India

• Intel will shut down its automotive business, lay off most of the department’s employees - Oregon Live

• They’re (Microsoft) about to cut another 3,000 jobs next week and here’s who’s getting hit: – Xbox: EVERY division – Sales org: expect hefty cuts – Marketing: chopped up too – Europe ops: pulled out entirely!! This comes just weeks after: – 6,000 layoffs in May – 8,000 more announced this month -305 out of WA Ya'll if this is right - that’s 17,000+ jobs gone in 60 days with more likely coming. They already said performance ones are coming. – Xbox is being hollowed out – Hardware sales are down – Execs are pivoting to Windows – “Next-gen” Xbox is now basically a PC with a controller Can we call this for what it is- Shrinkage. Carnage. Regardless of the final # (rumored 3K)- it is confirmed- a round of “major layoffs” is due next week. - X user Amanda Goodall

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Amazon just told thousands of employees to relocate. No severance if they say no. According to reports, Amazon is requiring employees to relocate to: Seattle, WA (HQ1) Arlington, VA (HQ2) Nashville, TN (Operations Center) Possibly also New York and Bay Area for select divisions. I believe the translation here ya'll is that forced attrition is the new layoff. - X user Amanda Goodall

The above are some news items about layoffs and closures. As tariff negotiations drag on, the collateral to businesses (especially smaller ones) can compound.

The Costs of Living challenges

Here is some news that highlights the challenges of the cost of living.

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McDonald’s prices have skyrocketed since 2014: • McChicken: +199% ($1.00 → $2.99) • McDouble: +168% ($1.19 → $3.19) • Medium Fries: +138% ($1.59 → $3.79) • Quarter Pounder with Cheese Meal: +122% ($5.39 → $11.99) Even fast food is expensive. Visual: Carbon Finance

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2 million student loan borrowers are about to get their wages garnished. 6 million are already 90+ days delinquent. - X user Amanda Goodall

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68% of Americans now live paycheck to paycheck. Read that again. 68% ya'll! PYMNTS’ latest report shows 684 out of every 1,000 U.S. adults are barely keeping up. This also corresponds pretty closely to what an exec at Chime told me - it's just a bit worse... but hey it's been a few months since that convo. 1 in 4 can’t even pay their monthly bills without falling behind. At this point is it due to wages/layoffs or is it just consumer debt driven?? - X user Amanda Goodall

My final thoughts

It can take months or years before the market enters a correction. It can also happen in a moment. A market top cannot conceal some of the market weaknesses in debt and demand (in the American economy). Consider building a portfolio that benefits from a bull, bear or baboon run.

The S&P 500 is not a representation of the American economy. Over 70% of global funds invested in equities are poured into the American market. The S&P 500 has a global presence, and its earnings represent revenue of these global businesses, not the American economy. It is simply the “preferred” marketplace for many investors, especially those outside of America. Yet, I have started rebalancing my portfolio, exiting some US positions.

Corrections are a normal part of any typical market cycle. These should be welcomed as they present good opportunities for “wealth transfer”. There are concerning signs of weakening commercial real estate (CRE), devaluation of USD, the (quiet) printing of USD, debt (federal, corporate and consumer), growing supply of real estate, tariffs, geopolitical tensions, wars and natural disasters.

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With USD falling 10% in 2025 alone, non-American investors have suffered forex losses. Without a profit margin of 15% (or more, depending on the fees and platforms used), investors could not break even with a 10% on USD-denominated assets. This is something that we need to consider, as other factors like inflation complicate the returns.

Let us review our expenditures, income, and savings. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. I am reviewing my holdings and plan to cut losses with businesses losing their competitive advantages. I would also consider hedging and adding some defensive positions.

Let us do our due diligence before we take up any positions. Let us have a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$QUANTUM CORP(QMCO)$