To The Moon

News and my thoughts from last week (30Jun25)

95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise in the next year, according to a World Gold Council survey. A record 43% plan to boost their holdings. 73% expect USD reserves to drop. - X user Global Markets Investor

The turning points of wars can pivot on mistakes. Sometimes, it boils down to who makes the bigger mistakes. To assume that the enemies think like you can be fatal. But let us avoid war at all costs.

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick says the U.S.-China trade deal was signed a few days ago.

An important part of critical services requires redundancy and reliability. More importantly, this can be a key component of Business Continuity.

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Total shipments FELL 76% YoY in May, to 1,238 tons, the least since February 2020. Exports to the US FELL 92% YoY to 46 tons, and LESS than 1/10 of what was recorded in March. - X user Global Markets Investor

This is a reflection of the global consumption (especially in manufacturing and MRO). If this is sustained, we can find issues with breakdowns, repairs or even regular operations of machines that require these materials. China is the major producer.

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778 insiders sold shares this month through June 11, while 200 bought shares. In effect, the ratio of insider buyers to sellers dropped to 0.26, the lowest since November 2024. Is this profit taking or is there a deeper concern that the public has no access to?

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U.S. MAY NEW HOME SALES PLUNGE 13.7% M/M TO 623,000; EST. 694,000; PREV. 722,000 - Investing

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The gap between consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” and those saying they are “hard to get” FELL to the LOWEST since 2017, excluding 2020. It implies the unemployment rate could jump 1-2 percentage points in the next few months. - X user Global Markets Investor

Peter Thiel on why 70% of Millennials say they are pro-socialist: “When one has too much student debt or if housing is too unaffordable, then one will have negative capital for a long time… and if one has no stake in the capitalist system, then one may well turn against it.”

Is the population crisis a more immediate crisis than climate?

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The USD has now lost more than 10% of its value this year, its worst first half in almost 40 years

San Francisco in recent months had its largest decline in office vacancy since the first quarter of 2015 as artificial-intelligence companies occupied more space, according to preliminary second-quarter data from the real estate company CBRE. Vacancy dropped for a third consecutive quarter to 35.1% from 35.8% in the first quarter, the CBRE data show. - SF Examiner

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US Consumer Confidence fell sharply in June, to the 2nd-lowest in 4.5 YEARS. Expectations have dropped in 6 out of 7 months. Americans express growing concerns about tariffs and high prices, fueling deepening economic pessimism. X user Global Markets Investor

Container ship traffic from China to the US is falling sharply: Ships departing China for the United States dropped to the second-lowest level in 15 MONTHS. The traffic has been down over 50% since its peak in April. Demand for goods is declining amid tariffs. - X user Global Markets Investor

Retail investors bought a net $3.2 billion of equities over the last week, ending Wednesday. The largest buying was seen in the broad market, gold and energy ETFs. Interestingly, their allocation to Magnificent 7 is ~2%, historically low. - X user Global Markets Investor

Retail investors are going CRAZY: Penny stocks, a proxy for retail activity, accounted for 47.4% of the market volume on Thursday, an all-time high, according to Goldman Sachs' analysis. That's twice as high as in the 2020-2021 meme stock frenzy. X user Global Markets Investor

@TigerStars

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