To The Moon

📌 My Top 3 Watchlist Stocks for 2H 2025 — Quality, Growth, and One Dark Horse

As Q3 kicks off, volatility is back — but so are opportunities hiding in plain sight. The AI wave has matured, energy themes are rotating, and tech isn’t the only game in town anymore. In this environment, I’m leaning into fundamentals, macro-aligned sectors, and one surprisingly overlooked player.

Here are the three stocks I’m watching closest this July — a blend of scale, momentum, and strategic inflection. Let’s dive in.

1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  – Still the AI Infrastructure Backbone 🤖

Yes, it's already up massively — but Nvidia remains a stock I can’t afford to ignore. Despite a forward P/E near 74, its Q1 FY25 revenue of US$26 billion and 86% share from the data centre business reinforce that this is still the “arms dealer” of the AI revolution.

What I'm watching next:

Signs of hyperscaler capex fatigue

Custom silicon competition (e.g. Google's TPU, Amazon's Trainium)

Potential China headwinds from new export rules

Nvidia isn’t cheap, but the gross margins (78%) and explosive 262% YoY growth show it’s not priced like any other company. It’s the foundation of modern compute — and the trend isn’t done yet.

2. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$   – A Make-or-Break Second Half ⚠️

Tesla is back in focus — not for EV growth, but for what happens next. With deliveries slowing and price cuts biting into margins, the pressure is on. But the Q2 bounce in solar installs and chatter around FSD monetisation keep me curious.

While its valuation has compressed, there’s renewed speculation about the upcoming robotaxi event in August. If that story evolves into reality — even partially — it could reset investor expectations entirely.

I'm not jumping in yet, but watching for clarity on margins, demand in China, and progress on next-gen vehicle platforms. Tesla’s narrative is volatile — but volatility works both ways.

3. $Shopify(SHOP)$   – My Contrarian E-Commerce Play 💡

Shopify may not scream excitement in a world obsessed with chips and robotics, but it’s quietly executing a turnaround. After a rough 2022–2023, its margins are expanding, and take rate improvements plus cost discipline have reignited profitability.

Most importantly, Shopify has transitioned from growth-at-all-costs to a scalable SaaS-commerce model, with better visibility into ARPU and cross-sell metrics. I think markets are underpricing its role as the e-commerce infrastructure for the next wave of independent sellers and AI-driven commerce.

I'll be looking for a pullback or consolidation near key support to start building. It’s not flashy, but when sentiment shifts, Shopify could re-rate faster than most expect.

Final Thoughts

When building a watchlist, I focus on three factors:

Clear catalysts

Asymmetric upside

Strategic positioning in secular trends

From AI to autonomy to scalable e-commerce, these three names cover different ends of the risk spectrum — but all deserve a spot on your radar. I’m not blindly chasing heat; I’m tracking business models with real leverage to 2025’s biggest macro and tech narratives.

> In a choppy market, discipline matters more than prediction.

What’s your watchlist for 2H 2025?