To The Moon

News and my thoughts from the past week (11Aug25)

China’s ton-class drone delivers supplies to offshore oil platforms 150km off the coast. A great leap in efficiency: 8 hours by ship compared to less than 1 hour by drone.

China’s exports defy trade war headwinds in July as growth surges to 7.2% China’s exports beat market forecasts in July as rising shipments to Europe, Africa and Latin America offset the impact of US tariffs - SCMP

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The US economy is splitting in two. There’s a rip-roaring AI economy. And there’s a lacklustre consumer economy. - Macro: Last quarter, spending on AI outpaced the growth in consumer spending - Stocks: In the last two years, ~60% of equity returns have come from “AI-related” companies, esp the hyperscalers like Microsoft and Meta (per JPM) - Micro: According to Stripe, firms on the platform that self-describe as “AI companies” are dominating revenue growt, far surpassing the growth rate of any other group - X user Derek Thompson

CNN and MSNBC lost 40% of its viewers compared to last year. Fake news is dying. - X user Gunther Eagleman

Apple's major US investment promises in the last 20 years: - 2018: $350B over 5 years – exceeded, per Apple's 2021 update. - 2021: $430B over 5 years – on track, with significant progress reported. - 2025: $600B over 4 years – newly announced, fulfilment pending. Earlier pledges were smaller, like the 2017 $5B fund. Total promised: ~$1.385T, mostly honoured or progressing. - Grok

Retail investors' share in the options market has exceeded 20% for the first time in HISTORY. Over the last few weeks, the retail options activity has SKYROCKETED. This is ~5 percentage points above the meme stock frenzy peak in 2021. - X user Global Markets Investor

Population collapse can be a more immediate crisis than climate change.

President Trump officially signs an executive order opening the $12.5 trillion 401(k) retirement market to crypto investments. This should be passed in Congress, not as an executive order

Coming to knowledge, the inputs has always been a bottleneck for humans. With LLM able to process large volume of information, there is a chance for humans to be less smart following more reliance on AI. Job market will no longer be the same

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Japan and Brazil, both fed up with the United States, are looking to begin trading beef with each other for the first time in history. America First = America Last. - X user Spencer Hakimian

The concept of "diversionary war theory" suggests that leaders initiate a war to divert attention from domestic problems. This assumes that an external threat can unite a population behind its leaders, a phenomenon known as the "rally around the flag" effect.

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The number of ZOMBIE firms has rarely been larger in the US: 40% of the Russell 2000 firms are unprofitable, near the most on RECORD The share is nearly as high as in the FINANCIAL CRISIS. Interest expense as a % of debt of these firms is ~7%, the highest in ~20 YEARS.

Image shows dropping exports since March 2025

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U.S. Banks are now sitting on $413 billion in unrealised losses as of Q1 2025 - BarChart

Professional investors' DUMPING of US stocks is ACCELERATING: Institutional investors sold $1.9 BILLION of US equities last week. Over the last 4 weeks, they sold ~$8 BILLION. They have been net sellers in 11 out of the past 12 weeks.

@TigerStars

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