To The Moon

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ 📈 Earnings shock meets structural adoption

I’m impressed by how decisively $CRCL reset sentiment. On 12Aug25, Circle reported Q2 revenue of $658.08M, up 53% year over year and ahead of consensus by $13.36M; shares spiked premarket as traders prioritised growth over a GAAP loss of $482M that was driven by non-cash IPO charges. USDC circulation surged 90% YoY to $61.3B at quarter end and climbed to $65.2B by 10Aug, confirming momentum into the print.

🧭 Regulatory clarity and institutional momentum

I believe the market is re-rating Circle as a regulated payments infrastructure play. The GENIUS Act became U.S. law in July; it creates a federal framework for payment stablecoins, clarifies oversight for bank and non-bank issuers, and removes a critical uncertainty discount. That backdrop, plus Circle’s announcement of Arc, a purpose-built Layer-1 for stablecoin finance with USDC as native gas and a built-in FX engine, is why institutions are “leaning in” post-IPO.

📌 Catalyst snapshot with market reaction

Event type: first post-IPO earnings

Date: 12Aug25

Metrics: revenue $658.08M versus ~$647M est; EPS −$4.48 driven by $591M non-cash items tied to the IPO; Adjusted EBITDA +52% YoY to $126M

Impact: high

Duration: structural, supported by regulatory clarity and product roadmap

Market reaction: +7–16% from premarket to intraday as liquidity chased the beat and Arc headlines; strongest bid appeared on the open, then moderated as price tested supply at IPO aVWAP.

💡 Quality of growth despite headline loss

I find the composition of growth convincing. Reserve income from Treasuries remains the revenue engine, but subscriptions and services are scaling alongside USDC’s 90% YoY circulation increase. RLDC margin compressed to ~38% as distribution costs rose with partner expansion; management still guides RLDC at 36–38% for FY25 with adjusted opex $475–$490M and “other revenue” of $75–$85M. Sensitivity to interest rates is real, yet the multi-year USDC CAGR guide at 40% suggests scale can offset rate drift if adoption continues.

💡 Street and hedge fund sentiment shift

I’m confident top-down opinion is shifting. Reuters captured Zacks’ David Bartosiak calling Circle “the pillar of stablecoins in the U.S.”, a framing that helps multiple support. ARK disclosed purchases around the IPO and has kept $CRCL in focus as a core exposure to regulated crypto infrastructure. Sell-side and financial press emphasise that the loss is largely accounting, while competition and rate exposure remain the key debates.

💡 Q1 to Q2 financial progression and guidance

Q1 revenue was $578.57M, with $557.91M from reserve income and $20.66M from other revenue streams, generating a $64.79M net profit pre-IPO charges.

In Q2, revenue jumped to $658.08M as reserve income and circulation gains offset a modest drop in reserve return rate (-103bps YoY to 4.1%). RLDC margins compressed from 42% to 38% YoY, reflecting rising distribution costs (+64% YoY to $407M) tied to growth in partner channels like Coinbase. FY25 guidance: other revenue $75–$85M, RLDC margins 36–38%, adjusted opex $475–$490M, and USDC CAGR at 40% multi-year.

💡 Expanding market share with regulatory moat

Stablecoin adoption continues to climb, with USDC’s share near 28% and usage broadening into payments, FX, and remittances. The GENIUS Act is catalysing pilots from large corporates and banks, although rule-making and implementation will take time. That delay creates a window for incumbents with compliance and partnerships already in place.

🧭 Technical landscape and price structure

I’m currently framing this as a bullish inflection with defined risk.

30m and 5m: Earnings gap pushed into IPO aVWAP and the volume point of control, then met instant supply. Price faded to the upper Keltner band and stabilised above the $164–$166 shelf. Dry-up in volume on the pullback is constructive.

4H: Downtrend from July highs is testing the Keltner mid-band. A clean reclaim of $176 on rising volume opens $184, then the $200 round number. RSI sits mid-50s, MACD curling; Bollinger mid-band is flattening.

Daily and weekly: Post-IPO compression persists; a weekly close above the EMA cluster would shift the regime from repair to advance.

📈 Options flow and positioning triggers

I’m ready to fade the idea that the move was options-led. Flow was not dominated by aggressive call sweeps into the print; the pop looked cash-led and ETF-assisted. For a trend leg, I want to see volume sustain above ~12M shares and an intraday VWAP hold on any retest of $164.

📊 Ethereum’s Technical Breakout Strengthens

Ethereum has decisively broken out of its long-term symmetrical triangle, with the latest weekly candle closing above key resistance around $3,900. The breakout is reinforced by a MACD golden cross on the multi-year chart, signaling a structural momentum shift toward a new bullish cycle. Current price action near $4,450 is riding above all major EMAs on the 4H chart, with Keltner and Bollinger bands expanding in unison, suggesting volatility expansion in the direction of the breakout.

From a broader perspective, ETH’s price structure is outperforming BTC on a relative basis, with stronger upside follow-through post-breakout and higher sustained RSI levels. The momentum suggests an initial target range between $4,800 and $5,200, while medium-term extension levels point toward $6,000 if volume continues building at current velocity. Ethereum’s strength here also reflects heightened accumulation from institutional-grade wallets, an increase in staked ETH, and the rising traction of layer-2 ecosystems that drive transactional demand.

📉 Risks to monitor

I think the three real risks are: 1) rate sensitivity, since reserve income compresses if front-end yields fall; 2) distribution cost creep that caps RLDC margins if partner revenue share remains elevated; 3) competition, especially if Tether defends share aggressively or new bank-issued coins launch under GENIUS. The first two are manageable with scale and mix shift toward services; the third is a watch-item as rules are implemented.

🎯 Probability-weighted scenarios

Bullish 65%: $164 holds as the launchpad, adoption stays hot, Arc headlines convert to pilots, and volume expands above 12M. Path: $176 reclaim, $184 test, $200 on acceleration.

Bearish 35%: $164 fails on rising supply, rates drift lower, RLDC remains capped, and competition headlines bite. Path: $152 liquidity flush, then $148 if ETFs de-risk.

🔒 Conclusion

I believe $CRCL is moving from narrative to execution. The revenue beat, USDC’s 90% circulation jump, and Arc’s near-term launch, set against the first U.S. stablecoin law, form a rare alignment of product, policy, and timing. My strategy is simple: defend $164, force a clean break over $176 with expanding volume, and let the tape confirm leadership into $184, then $200. If sellers take back $164, I step aside and wait for $152–$148 where the next asymmetric entry sets up. Over the next two quarters, this is the litmus test for how fast regulated stablecoin infrastructure scales into mainstream finance. These are not predictions; they are probability-weighted frameworks designed to position ahead of the crowd.

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