To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares(NVDU)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$🤖🦾 High-conviction view on Rubin, supply chain signals, and the exact levels that decide leadership rotation

📺 I'M WATCHING $NVDA FOR CLUES ON WHERE TECH GOES NEXT

📰 Event snapshot

At 06:03 NZST on 15Aug25, sell-side chatter said Nvidia’s next-gen Rubin GPU may need a redesign at TSMC; finalisation guided to late September or October. NVIDIA JUST SAID THE NEXT AI CHIPS AFTER THE CURRENT BLACKWELL GENERATION THE “RUBIN GPU CHIP” IS “ON TRACK.” NVDA last traded at 181.93 USD; up 0.19% on 14Aug25; up 23% YTD. Sources: Barron’s, 15Aug25; AInvest, 15Aug25.

Why it matters now

Rubin succeeds Blackwell; timing friction sets the tone for AI capex pacing and whether $QQQ resumes leadership or rotates. NVDA and MSFT now account for about 15.4% of the S&P 500; NVDA is roughly 8% of SPY. Sources: Charlie Bilello, 06Aug25; Seeking Alpha, 11Aug25.

NVDA and MSFT at 15.4% raises the flow impact of each Rubin headline.

💵 Event-specific financials and momentum

Foxconn reported NT$44.4B Q2 net profit; +27% YoY; AI server revenue +60% YoY in Q2; guides Q3 AI server revenue +170% YoY; adds Q3 rack QoQ +300%; full-year revenue > NT$1T; “AI market continues strong demand in 2026.” Lenovo’s latest print shows AI infrastructure revenue more than doubling; ISG revenue $4.3B; +36% YoY; Neptune liquid cooling +30% YoY. These confirm no slowdown in the rack build-out that feeds Blackwell now and Rubin later. Sources: Reuters, 14Aug25; Seeking Alpha, 15Aug25.

TSMC backdrop: Q2 net profit +60.7% YoY; Q2 net revenue +22.5% QoQ; CEO said AI chip demand outpaces supply. Strategic note: TSMC is consolidating 8-inch capacity and phasing out 6-inch over two years to align with demand. Sources: Reuters, 17Jul25; AInvest, 10Aug25.

Valuation anchor: NVDA forward P/E near 40–42 times on current street numbers. Sources: Yahoo Finance, 14Aug25; GuruFocus, 13Aug25.

AI server growth guides remain extreme; Q3 rack QoQ +300% underscores demand.

ISG revenue $4.3B; +36% YoY; AI infrastructure more than doubled.

🧭 Technical setup and trade triggers

I’m treating this as a live inflection. NVDA sits on 178 to 179 support; 184.48 is the breakout pivot. A decisive 4H close above 184.48 with rising volume confirms continuation toward 192 then 200. Failure to hold 178 risks a revisit of 175; then the 172.80 former base. Structure: on the 4H chart price rides the value band; EMAs 13, 21, 55 remain stacked; Keltner and Bollinger show constructive compression; weekly trend holds above the 20-week SMA. RSI sits near the mid-50s; MACD is positive and flattening. Thesis confirmation: reclaim and hold 184.48 with higher highs on 4H and RSI above 60. Invalidation: a daily close below 172.80 with expanding sell volume.

178 to 179 is the must-hold shelf; 184.48 is the actionable breakout.

Higher-timeframe uptrend remains intact above long-term averages.

🧨 Options flow and volatility context

19Sep25 $170 put flow is building as traders hedge the September to October Rubin window; IV for that expiry reads about 45.9% with a +26.6 vol-point pop on the screen; skew leans to downside protection. Broad index hedging is visible in $SPY and $IWM. This setup implies any Rubin update can act as a volatility accelerant rather than a trend origin. Source: platform chain at 06:03 NZST, 15Aug25.

 19Sep25 $170P carries notable OI and prints as hedges build.

IV and skew posture shows demand for downside insurance into the headline window.

🧩 Peer and sector context

AMD’s MI450 narrative benefits from perceived Rubin slippage; supply-chain prints still argue for tight AI rack demand. NVDA’s top weights in SPY and SMH amplify both squeezes and drawdowns. PLTR quality check: Rule of 40 near 89% for Q2’25 on FCF math; NVDA’s FCF-based Rule of 40 peaked materially higher in late 2024 and remains elevated. Sources: Seeking Alpha, 11Aug25 and 15Aug25.

PLTR at about 89% in Q2’25; NVDA remained higher on prior peaks.

🌍 Macro and geopolitics

NVDA’s revenue is concentrated across 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇸🇬 🇹🇼; tariff and FX swings matter. TSMC’s capacity actions: consolidating 8-inch and phasing out 6-inch reduces legacy complexity while AI demand stays firm. Foxconn and Lenovo acknowledged tariff and currency risk yet maintained strong AI outlooks. Sources: AInvest, 10Aug25; Reuters, 14Aug25.

Concentrated revenue by country heightens sensitivity to tariffs and FX.

Strategic & Competitive Positioning

Nvidia remains the undisputed leader in AI acceleration, with its CUDA ecosystem, H100 dominance, and upcoming Blackwell architecture setting the pace for data center compute. AMD’s MI300X is gaining traction with hyperscalers, yet software ecosystem depth and AI developer loyalty continue to favor Nvidia.

Nvidia’s H20 edges MI300X in AI inference benchmarks, underscoring performance leadership in key enterprise workloads.

📊 Scenario tree with probabilities

Base 55%: NVDA holds 178 to 179; trades 175 to 190 through Sep to Oct as Rubin headlines land; target 190 by 30Sep25.

Bull 30%: Break and hold above 184.48; momentum extends to 192 then 200 by 31Oct25 as order visibility firms.

Bear 15%: Confirmed 2026 Rubin volume shortfall; NVDA loses 172.80 on a daily close; magnet to 166 to 170 by 30Sep25.

What changes my mind: a company update indicating a Rubin volume cut greater than 15% versus current street assumptions.

🛡 Risk register and mitigation

Execution drift on Rubin; monitor roadmap milestones and TSMC cadence.

Policy or tariff volatility; track USTR dates; manage size around event windows.

AI capex digestion; watch Foxconn and Lenovo guidance and NVDA backlog disclosures.

🧯 Real-time leadership tell

I’m using 178 to 179 as the floor and 184.48 as the ceiling to judge $QQQ leadership. Clean break and hold above 184.48 favors megacap AI leadership; a close below 178 hands near-term control to defensives and small-cap factor spreads.

🎯 Closing conviction

I’m treating 178 to 179 as the fulcrum and 184.48 as the trigger. Options and index hedging show markets bracing for Rubin headlines; supply-chain growth argues for durable AI demand. My bias stays constructive above 179 with a path through 184.48 toward 192; sub-178 shifts me to defense until the next guided Rubin milestone. These are not predictions; they are probability-weighted frameworks.

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