Markets Hit Record Highs: Are You Missing From the Bull Run?
Global equity markets are in celebration mode recently. From $S&P 500(.SPX)$ to indices in Europe and Asia, fresh record highs are becoming headlines.
But not everyone on is cheering. While some big banks are calling for more upside, others are warning of an imminent pullback.
🐂 The Bull: Citigroup Upgrades S&P 500 to 6600
Citigroup has turned more optimistic, lifting its year-end S&P 500 target from 6,300 to 6,600 — about 3.3% above Friday’s close. What’s fueling this confidence?
Nearly 82% of S&P 500 companies beat Q2 expectations, with strong AI-related infrastructure spending driving tech profits.
After a year of forecast downgrades, consensus earnings expectations are now turning higher.
For Citigroup, the bull run still has legs, supported by resilient profits and improved policy outlook.
🐻 The Bears: Warning Signs Flashing
UBS has taken an unusually firm bearish stance, warning on U.S. Equities and the economy.
GDP growth could drop from 2.0% in Q2 to just 0.9% in Q4. Market concentration in mega-cap tech and high valuation makes the market vulnerable.
UBS argues investors are underestimating the risk from higher U.S. tariffs.
Stifel shares the caution, forecasting that the S&P 500 could fall up to 14% to 5,500 by year-end 2025. They see the risk of mild stagflation — slowing growth alongside stubborn inflation — and warn that Fed rate cuts may have little impact on already expensive equities.
Deutsche Bank, Evercore ISI, and other strategists also flag the danger of a 10%+ pullback, citing tightening immigration policies, rising tariffs, and inflationary pressures.
Questions for Discussion
Are you riding the wave like the bulls, banking on strong earnings?
Or are you preparing for the predicted pullback, trimming risk and locking in gains?
Global markets are in record-breaking territory. Is your portfolio profiting from it?
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GDP增長可能會從第二季度爲2.0%，第四季度僅爲0.9%.市場集中於大型科技股和高估值使市場變得脆弱。
幾乎82%標普500公司的業績超出了第二季度的預期，強勁的人工智能相關基礎設施支出推動了科技利潤。
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That said, I can’t ignore risks flagged by UBS and others. Market concentration in mega-cap tech, stagflation concerns, and tariffs are all valid headwinds. For me, it means staying invested but being selective, while keeping some cash ready in case a pullback creates better entry points.
Overall, I see this as a chance to ride the wave while managing risk. My portfolio is benefiting from the record highs, but I’m ready to trim or hedge if conditions change. Flexibility is key — enjoying the upside while staying prepared for volatility.
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