To The Moon

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 25Aug25)

Public Holidays

There are no public holidays in China, Singapore, the United States, or Hong Kong.

Observations

• The Core PCE price index is expected to be 0.3%. This is the preferred reference used by the Federal Reserve for inflation.

• This week's release of new home sales data, with a forecast of 630,000 units, will offer a useful benchmark for the residential real estate industry.

• In other news, durable goods orders are projected to be down by 4.0%, marking a notable recovery from the previous decline of 9.4%.

• Meanwhile, consumer confidence is expected to remain below 100, with a forecast of 98.0.

• Looking ahead, the second-quarter GDP is anticipated to hold at 3.0%.

• The most recent Chicago PMI reading of 47.1 points toward continued economic contraction.

• Initial Jobless Claims should be closely watched after the job numbers revision last Friday spooked the market.

• Crude oil inventories are an item to monitor. A higher-than-expected inventory level can raise concerns about oil demand.

Earnings Calendar (25Aug25)

I look forward to the earnings reports from Alibaba, HP, Nvidia, Dell, Snowflake, and CrowdStrike.

Let us explore CrowdStrike.

The stock price has grown by 54.90% from a year ago, but we have noticed that it has been falling since July 2025.

The Technical Analysis suggests a “Strong Sell” rating, and the analysts’ sentiments have a “Buy” rating. The price target of $482.38 suggests a potential upside of 14.70%.

Observations:

• Revenue of the business grew from $53 million in 2017 to $3.9 billion in 2025

• The gross profit grew from $19 million in 2017 to $2.9 billion

• Operating profit started at a $91million loss in 2017 and the company remains unprofitable with a loss of $120 million in 2025.

• Earnings per share (EPS) remained at a negative but $0.08 in 2025 for earnings per share is the lowest loss in EPS it had over the last 9 years.

• Is the business about to turn things around?

The forecast of the coming earnings is $0.83 and $1.15B for EPS and revenue, respectively. The business should be breaking even in the financial year (seen in the recent quarterly earnings). Should the trend continue, this can be one stock for our consideration.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (25Aug25)

Technical observations:

• MACD - currently shows a downtrend. However, it seems to be inching back upwards. Let us monitor.

• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend. The lines are converging, which represents a potential reversal of the current uptrend. However, the convergence is not yet complete, and we expect the uptrend to continue.

• Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term.

• The CMF is positive at 0.05, indicating more buying pressure over the past 20 periods. However, it is on a downward trend, with most using the middle “0” line as the indicator for trend change.

The S&P 500 has grown 14.77% from a year ago.

The S&P 500 technical analysis (daily interval) is recommending a “Strong Buy”. All 22 indicators comprise moving averages and technical indicators are pointing to a “Buy” signal.

Outlook and Implications for the Coming Week (from Grok)

• Short-Term Outlook (August 25–29, 2025): The S&P 500 is likely to start the week with a bearish bias, driven by the Evening Star and Bearish Engulfing patterns. If the price is around 5,300–5,350 by August 24, the coming week could test 5,345.01 (early 2025 low) or drop further to 5,300 if selling pressure intensifies. Potential scenarios include:

  Bearish Case: A continued decline below 5,345.01 with high volume, possibly forming a Three Black Crows pattern, targeting 5,300 or lower.

  Neutral Case: Stabilization around 5,345.01, with a Doji or small-bodied candle indicating consolidation or a potential bottom.

  Bullish Reversal Case: A bounce from 5,345.01 with a bullish pattern (e.g., Hammer or Morning Star) and increasing volume, signaling a recovery toward 5,479.78 or 5,620.19.

• Long-Term Outlook: The trend remains bearish, with the S&P 500 in a correction phase that could mirror the early 2025 decline from 6,000 to 5,345.01. The current price below the 50 MA (5,629.83) and 200 MA (5,796.34) supports this outlook, with a potential retest of 5,345.01 or lower if bearish momentum continues.

The candlestick patterns suggest a bearish short-term outlook for the coming week, with a bearish long-term outlook, indicating the S&P 500 is in a correction phase following its recent high, with potential for further downside unless a bullish reversal emerges at key support levels.

The technicals point to a bullish week ahead. Is a correction due? I am leaning toward a bullish run that should experience a reversal soon.

News and my thoughts from the past week (25Aug25)

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Rising Delinquencies... Credit cards: >12%, highest since the Great Recession. Student loans: back above 10% after payments resumed, likely to continue higher. Auto loans: near 5%, approaching a 14-year high. The debt stress is piling up. - X user Charlie Bilello

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ACCORDING TO WALL STREET GOOGLE’S 6 MAIN BUSINESS ARE WORTH $3.5 TRILLION ON A STAND ALONE BASIS THE $3.5 TRILLION DOZENS EVEN INCLUDE DOZENS OF SMALLER UNITS GOOGLE IS CURRENTLY WORTH JUST $2.5 TRILLION - X user Gurgavin

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Bull markets have lasted 5x longer than bear markets on average. Bulls: +254% over 5 years. Bears: –31% over 1 year. Markets spend far more time growing wealth than destroying it. Why is interrupting compounding the biggest risk of all? - X user Charlie Bilello

Americans aren't drinking anymore. Alcohol giants are scrambling to manage the fallout. - Yahoo Finance

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Japanese automakers have begun passing the costs of U.S. tariffs onto American consumers, per the Nikkei. - Unusual Whales

US retail sales adjusted for inflation have been basically flat over the last 4 years. In other words, US consumer spending has barely kept pace with rising prices. Consumer spending has been materially slowing.

APPLE RAISES APPLE TV+ PRICES BY 30% Perfect inflation.

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Office space vacancy rates hit ~20% in Q2 2025, the highest share on RECORD. Vacant office space has almost DOUBLED in 5 years. This is also WAY above the post-Great Financial Crisis peak. When will this stop? - X user Global Markets Investor

Global equities 'SELL SIGNAL' triggered for the 2nd month: Institutional investors' cash as a share of assets hit 3.9% in August, up from 3.8% in July. Cash allocations at or below 4% historically indicate a “SELL SIGNAL” for global equities - BofA

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S&P 500 trades at 22x earnings expectations for the next 12 months, one of the most expensive valuations in the last 35 years - BarChart

Blackstone didn't buy 274,000 homes to be landlords. They spent $1 trillion turning homeownership into subscription housing. They are creating a generation that will own nothing and rent everything. While families dream of white picket fences, Wall Street dreams of permanent tenants - X user Shawn Chauhan

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Container shipping traffic from China to the US is falling again: The number of container ships departing from China to the US over the last 15 days has dropped to its lowest level since May. This is also one of the lowest readings in 2 years. Shipping volumes have declined by ~40% over the last month. This comes despite the ongoing US-China tariff truce, which was extended for another 90 days on Tuesday. In reality, average US tariff rates on Chinese goods still stand at ~55%, according to Bloomberg. US-China trade is slowing. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

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Businesses are eating 64% of tariffs right now. We know that. But according to Goldman, by October, this will drop to only 8%, with consumers eating 67%. - X user Ryan Detrick

My Investing Muse (25Aug25)

Layoffs & Closure news

• Store closings in 2025 have totalled about 5,822 as of June 27, significantly surpassing last year's mid-year total of 3,496, Coresight Research reported. - The Street

• You survived the layoffs. Now you’re doing 2 people’s jobs. Attrition follows a Layoff. How fast can the slump follow?

• Meta is freezing all AI hiring, per WSJ. This comes just days after Meta offered compensation packages exceeding $100M for some AI engineer hires.

• Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google: $320B planned to spend this year on AI. MIT: 95% of companies saw zero returns. Zuck just burned $31.8B in 6 months and is hitting the brakes. Now even the CEOs who lit the fire are yelling “bubble.” Ya don't say? Insiders are finally pre-warning about this now… glad they caught up. There will be some epic movies made from this time period. - X user Amanda Goodall

There have been 446 corporate bankruptcies year-to-date, the most in 15 YEARS. Among sectors, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary have been the most hit with 70 and 61 filings, respectively. - X user Global Markets Investor

The above are some news items about layoffs and closures. As tariff negotiations drag on, the collateral to businesses (especially smaller ones) can compound.

The Rise and Fall of AI

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AI will lead the way and will be a major proponent of the market. However, many AI companies would not make it. From Artificial Intelligence to Artificial investments? Not every AI company is created equal.

Does America have an adequate energy infrastructure to support the AI boom?

Energy

NYT: The Trump administration on Friday ordered that all construction stop on Revolution Wind, a $4 billion wind farm off the coast of Rhode Island that is already mostly built. Matthew Giacona, the acting director of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, issued a letter on Friday to Orsted, the Danish company building the wind farm, ordering it to “halt all ongoing activities” because of unspecified issues. - X user Republicans against Trump

Texas Is Preparing To Cut Off Power To Data Centres During Grid Emergencies - Zerohedge

Will (a lack of) energy and infrastructure be America's greatest enemies?

My final thoughts

The release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, will be a key event in the coming week as the central bank navigates its interest rate decisions.

In the AI sector, a shift is being observed in manpower hiring. While companies like OpenAI have demonstrated significant technological advancements, the business has operated at a considerable loss despite major investments. For instance, OpenAI projected a cumulative loss of $14 billion by 2026. This has raised questions about profitability in the industry, even as companies like Google are seen by some as leading the AI race.

The landscape of global AI development, however, is not fully transparent. China, for example, is making rapid progress, and its AI ecosystem benefits from a large population which provides vast datasets for training models. China is the world's largest producer of AI talent, and Chinese companies are rapidly closing the gap in AI research and development. This enables the development of AI models at a greater speed and scale.

Let us review our expenditures, income, and savings. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. I am reviewing my holdings and plan to cut losses with businesses losing their competitive advantages. I would also consider hedging and adding some defensive positions.

Let us conduct our due diligence before taking on any positions. Let us have a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$