Exchange Gemini vs. RWA Figure: Who is Next Circle in IPO Race?
AI, crypto, and the $15B IPO boom—JPMorgan expects fundraising to hit nearly $40B this year, far above last year’s $27.5B.
In the past two weeks, both Figure and Gemini filed for IPOs. After $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ , who will be the next star to reshape the industry?
$Gemini Group Global Corp.(GMNI)$: With a large user base, how long will it take to reach profitability?
Gemini is underwritten by Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Morgan Stanley. It plans to sell 16.67M shares at $17–19 each, raising $317M.
H1 revenue: $67.9M, but net loss ballooned to $282.5M. Over 65% of revenue still comes from trading fees—directly hit by the downturn in crypto volumes.
Despite 14.6M users and $18B in assets under custody, Gemini carries $2.1B in debt. Valuation may only reach $5–10B, far below Coinbase’s IPO peak.
But can compliance halo offset mounting losses?
Figure: Is the RWA track full of potential, just like a “mini Circle”?
Figure’s core is real-world asset (RWA) tokenization—using the Provenance chain to help businesses improve liquidity from accounts receivable, drastically boosting financing efficiency.
H1 revenue: $191M, with $29.1M net profit—successfully turned profitable. It’s approved in 32 U.S. states, with a solid legal foundation. Earnings quality is stable, less dependent on market trading volumes—making Figure highly resilient.
While $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ shares plunged 27% on falling trading volumes, Figure’s profitability and blue-ocean market make its valuation logic closer to Circle’s early stablecoin ecosystem.
Who can ride Circle’s wave?
Circle’s success came from compliance, institutional clients, and profit model optimization.
Gemini looks more like a “mini Coinbase”—big losses but with user and custody base.
Figure precisely targets RWAs, potentially becoming the bridge between blockchain and the real economy.
With Bitcoin spot ETFs now accounting for 45% of trading volume, institutional capital is reshaping the market. Gemini’s custody advantage vs. Figure’s RWA innovation—who can truly replicate Circle’s path?
💬 Discussion Zone:
Can Gemini uphold the banner of a compliant exchange, or will losses drag it down?
Will Figure’s RWA model become the next trillion-dollar track?
In the coming IPO boom, do you favor the exchange model or the RWA model?
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@Abaaa @linkoog @BillyR @koolgal
The RWA model pioneered by Figure (especially via blockchain-based lending and tokenized mortgages) is one of the top contenders for trillion-dollar scale—but regulatory navigation and institutional buy-in will determine how fast it grows.
Strategically, the RWA model has higher long-term upside, while the exchange model offers more immediate cash flow and scalability—but is also more saturated.
@ANGGA
- *Pioneering new use cases*: Companies innovating in areas like blockchain-based financial services or decentralized applications.
- *Demonstrating strong growth*: Firms with robust revenue growth and a clear path to profitability might attract investor attention
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Zara
@Zara @WILDHAN
- *Ripple*: Known for its cross-border payment solutions and significant market presence.
- *Kraken*: A well-established cryptocurrency exchange with a strong user base.
- *Gemini's potential growth*: As a crypto exchange that has already filed for an IPO, Gemini might be an interesting company to watch
@koolgal @orsiri @Mattboi
As Trump Media showers Crypto.com with billions, Gemini has been left to prove that integrity still matters.
Gemini is not chasing hype. It is chasing legitimacy. The Big Question is can Gemini, a principled exchange survive in a market that rewards hype?
Gemini's bet is bold. If it lands, it rewrites the crypto playbook. If it doesn't, Gemini becomes a cautionary tale.
Gemini's IPO is a tactical bet on those investors who are bold as it could reward them with a huge win but it could also go the opposite way too.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger @TigerClub
Why it matters:
Real assets made liquid and transparent.
Finance, opened to everyone, not just institutions.
A trillion dollar track where legacy meets Web3.
If Figure succeeds it won't just digitise wealth - it will democratise it. RWAs are the quiet revolution and Figure is setting the trend.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @CaptainTiger @TigerClub @Tiger_SG
另一方面，figure的rwa似乎更值得信赖和新颖，我可以看到投资者购买其股票。凭借其盈利能力和潜在的未来指数级增长，如果它真正成为区块链和实体经济之间的桥梁，它将是投资者的宠儿。许多人都在寻找这座桥梁，在那里区块链将有真正的应用，并将有助于推动数字的增长。它与前景所在的circle最相似，我发现商业模式比circle更有说服力。所以，比起双子座，我更喜欢数字。 @Success88 @HelenJanet @Universe宇宙 @Kaixiang @SR050321 @DiAngel @Fenger1188 @SPOT_ON 如何加入
上半年收入：6790万美元，但净亏损飙升至2.825亿美元。超过65%的收入仍然来自交易费用——直接受到加密货币交易量低迷的打击。
尽管拥有1460万用户和18B美元的托管资产，Gemini却揹负着21亿美元的债务。估值可能仅达到$5-10B，远低于Coinbase的IPO峰值。