To The Moon

$Robinhood(HOOD)$ $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ $Enphase Energy(ENPH)$ 

🧭 Thesis

This is a high-conviction, flow-fueled upgrade for HOOD and APP. Expect a near-term inclusion pop as indexers pile in during the late-September rebalance window, followed by a digestion phase. The “index effect” often fades in 30–45 days, but how much it fades depends on fundamentals and cycle positioning. My edge? Buy dips pre-rebalance, trim into inclusion strength, and reload post-event once liquidity stabilises.

📣 What’s Driving This

S&P Dow Jones Indices is adding Robinhood Markets and AppLovin to the S&P 500. Both stocks ripped on the news, and major media flagged them as the next flow beneficiaries. This is a flow catalyst with teeth if execution keeps landing.

💧 Flow Mechanics to Watch

Index funds and closet-indexers must buy into the effective date. Hedge funds front-run, then recycle into passive demand. The inclusion premium has softened over decades, but the playbook is intact: run-up; spike; partial fade. Volume is the tell.

📊 Robinhood: Fundamentals That Seal the Deal

Q2 2025 showed Robinhood scaling into profitability and expanding across multiple growth engines:

• Revenue +45% YoY to $989M

• Net income +105% to $386M

• EPS $0.42

• Options revenue $265M

• Crypto revenue $160M

• 3.5M Gold subscribers

• Gold adoption rate at 13%, meaning for every 100 customers, 13 pay the additional subscription fee

• Platform assets $279B, now roughly 60% away from the $1T milestone

• Prediction markets volume doubled to 2B contracts traded so far, with 1B in Q2 and 10% tied to economic forecasts, the rest largely sports-related

• 300K Gold card holders, with credit card revenue rising for four consecutive quarters, hitting $13M in Q2

• Robinhood Strategies, their advisory product launched in April, has already reached 100K funded accounts with $500M AUM

• 600K international customers onboarded through EU tokenized stock expansion

• $700M spent on buybacks in the first year, repurchasing 21M shares at an average of $34, while still growing at this pace

• Margin book hit an all-time high of $9.5B, supported by the lowest borrowing rates in the industry

Robinhood Banking is set to launch in the Fall, alongside another event for active traders, creating additional catalysts on top of S&P 500 inclusion.

🧠 AppLovin: Margin Machine That Compounds

AppLovin printed a textbook quarter:

• Revenue $1.26B (+77% YoY)

• Adjusted EBITDA $1.02B (81% margin)

• FCF $768M

• Q3 guidance ~$1.33B

• Analysts raised targets on Axon 2 execution

APP’s Axon-driven ad-tech engine is pure compounding leverage.

📉 Technicals & Actionable Trades

🔮 AppLovin (APP)

• 4H Chart: Riding upper Bollinger/Keltner at $555; RSI stretched but not overheated.

• Supports: $510 (EMA cluster + Keltner mid), $485 (prior base).

• Upside: $575 then $590.

• Plan: Add on dips into $510–$520 where volume shelves sit. Momentum chases need stops under $490.

• 30m Intraday: Price hugging 13/21EMAs. Every backtest into 55EMA has been bought. $540–$545 is my reload zone if liquidity flushes.

🔮 Robinhood (HOOD)

• 90m Chart: Breakout from $100 → $118 on big volume. EMAs stacked bullish, price riding 13/21 bands.

• Supports: $112 (gap + EMA confluence), $108 (mid-Bollinger).

• Upside: $123–$126 (measured move).

• Plan: Build on $112 retests, trim into $123–$126, reduce if volumes fade above $120.

• 4H Chart: Volatility squeeze resolved higher, breaking through $116. Bollinger expansion confirms ignition. A hold over $118 unlocks $125+.

🔎 Options Flow Edge

• APP: $1.6M put buy at $520 weekly expiry. Likely hedging post-run; signals short-term chop risk, not trend reversal.

• HOOD: $492K call sweep at $130 strike expiring late October. Continuation bet aligned with breakout targets at $123–$126+.

🥊 Robinhood vs AppLovin: Who Stays Stronger in the S&P?

• APP: Ad-tech economics, high margins, global mobile demand = stable compounding power. Risk is ad-spend cycles and Apple/Google privacy rules. If $485 cracks, trend control weakens.

• HOOD: Optionality across options, crypto, Gold, and Bitstamp integration. Convex upside if retail engagement persists, but cyclical and regulatory risks are real. If $108 breaks, momentum resets.

Verdict: APP wins on margin durability; HOOD shines tactically on upside convexity.

⏱️ Inclusion Timing Playbook

1. Pre-Effective Drift → skew positive as funds pre-position.

2. Rebalance Week → volume spikes, spreads widen.

3. Post-Event → chop or pullback as demand normalises.

Tactic: scale dips before rebalance, trim into strength, reload on post-event bases.

📅 Upcoming Catalyst: HOOD Summit ’25

Robinhood’s upcoming HOOD Summit ’25 on September 9 is another key catalyst to track. Management could use the event to highlight product expansion, user engagement growth, or international scaling, adding another layer of momentum on top of the S&P 500 inclusion flows.

🧯 Integrated Risk Checks

• APP: Watch ad-budget sensitivity; $485 is my risk line.

• HOOD: Crypto volatility + regulatory pressure; $108 is my guardrail.

Risks aren’t just theory, they’re levels where I’ll step aside.

Conclusion

AppLovin remains the durable compounder with high margins, strong free cash flow, and predictable growth tied to mobile ad spending. Robinhood, however, now looks transformed from a retail broker into a full fintech ecosystem with prediction markets, credit cards, advisory products, international expansion, buybacks, and banking on the horizon. If I had to frame it cleanly, APP offers stability and resilience, while HOOD carries the bigger upside surprise if its new growth engines keep scaling.

👉❓If you had to choose one trade to carry beyond the rebalance, would you back Robinhood’s retail-fueled upside or AppLovin’s compounding ad-tech engine?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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