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Waiting for FOMC and Triple Witching

@OptionsDelta
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ This week, the price has held within the $395–435$ range. As mentioned yesterday, institutions rolled positions again: selling the $432.5$ and $435$ calls ($TSLA 20250919 435.0 CALL$ ), buying the $452.5$ and $455$ calls ($TSLA 20250919 455.0 CALL$ ). The odds of another short squeeze this week are low, so selling options expiring this week could be considered. There are also large put spreads to provide a floor: $410$ ($TSLA 20250919 410.0 PUT$ ) and $395$ ($TSLA 20250919 395.0 PUT$ ). The direction isn’t clear, but no major concerns—if selling puts, look for strikes below $390$. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ No major changes to expectations—closing range this week is still $170–180$. Two notable bullish trades: One is a roll: closing the $175$ call expiring September 19 ($NVDA 20250919 175.0 CALL$ ), then rolling into the $190$ call expiring October 31 ($NVDA 20251031 190.0 CALL$ ), with 26,000 contracts and $9.3 million notional. The other is a sell put: selling the $165$ put expiring August 2026 ($NVDA 20260821 165.0 PUT$ ), with 3,600 contracts and $6.59 million notional. Both trades make sense: the October $190$ call is more aggressive, while the long-dated $165$ put sale is very conservative. $Apple(AAPL)$ Apple remains steady and methodical—expecting it to stay below $240$ this week. Could follow the institutional flow and sell the $245$ call ($AAPL 20250919 242.5 CALL$ ). $Oracle(ORCL)$ The key signal for Oracle is when institutions start opening big long call positions. Yes, there are large long call positions, specifically the $230$ call expiring October 17 ($ORCL 20251017 230.0 CALL$ ). Yesterday’s article highlighted a big sell call on the same $230$ strike; since it was an opening trade, I saw it as a bearish position rather than a new institutional long. Worth noting: the $230$ call saw a 12,000 contract reduction on Monday, without a corresponding roll—indicating institutions are waiting on price action. Currently, price is oscillating in the $280–320$ range. Still waiting to see if the potential ByteDance/TikTok acquisition catalyst can drive a breakout. $Alibaba(BABA)$ Alibaba call positions are being trimmed, with $160$ already achieved as a near-term target. There’s disagreement on whether it can push above $170$; expect it to trend sideways in the $150–160$ range for a while. $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ / $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $GOOGL$’s trading volume is double that of $GOOG$, so I’ll show $GOOGL$’s option data here. After Monday’s $4.5%$ gain, there was a big bullish buy in the $330$ call expiring December 2025 ($GOOGL 20251219 330.0 CALL$ )—11,800 contracts, over $1.4 million notional. On the put side, there’s a fair amount of protective buying, with strikes around $240$ ($GOOGL 20260116 240.0 PUT$ ). Expect the stock to oscillate in the $240–255$ range in the near term.
Waiting for FOMC and Triple Witching

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