To The Moon

$BlackBerry(BB)$ is scheduled to report its Q2 fiscal 2026 results on Thursday, September 25, 2025, before the market opens.

Revenue: Approximately $122 million - $125 million. This is generally forecast to be a year-over-year decline (around 13-14%), reflecting macroeconomic and automotive sector challenges, despite a slight raise in full-year guidance in the previous quarter.

Adjusted EPS (Earnings Per Share): Consensus is generally around $0.01.

Summary of BlackBerry (BB) Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings

BlackBerry reported a strong quarter that exceeded its guidance across key financial metrics, driven by solid execution in its core software divisions.

Key Highlights:

QNX Momentum: The Internet of Things (IoT) division, anchored by the QNX operating system for automotive and general embedded markets (GEM), continued its upward trajectory with strong revenue growth and healthy margins (81% gross margin). The QNX royalty backlog is a significant indicator of future revenue, reportedly growing to approximately $865 million.

Cybersecurity Strength: The Secure Communications division exceeded its revenue guidance, largely driven by large, early closings of government deals for its high-security Secusmart solution.

Capital Allocation: The company initiated a $10 million share repurchase as part of a newly approved $100 million buyback program, signaling confidence in its financial position and capital efficiency.

Raised Full-Year Guidance: Based on the strong Q1 performance, BlackBerry slightly raised its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $508-$538 million (from $504-$534 million) and its adjusted EBITDA guidance to $72-$87 million (from $69-$84 million), with the increase attributed mainly to the improved outlook for Secure Communications.

Lesson Learned from the Guidance

The primary lesson learned from BlackBerry's guidance for the rest of fiscal year 2026 is the importance of strategic focus on high-margin, differentiated software (QNX) and the volatility of government contracting in the Secure Communications business.

QNX (IoT) is the Predictable Growth Engine: The company maintained its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for the QNX unit ($250–$270 million and $55–$60 million, respectively). This stability, despite macro uncertainties, suggests that the revenue from QNX's high-margin, long-cycle design wins in the automotive and general embedded markets is increasingly becoming the most predictable and foundational part of the company's future value.

Lesson: For BlackBerry, long-term investors should prioritize the continued growth of the QNX backlog and its expansion into new vertical markets (like industrial automation and medical devices) as the key driver of the business turnaround, even more so than quarterly revenue fluctuations.

Lumpy but High-Value Cybersecurity Wins: The Secure Communications division raised its full-year guidance because it closed some major SecuSmart government deals earlier than anticipated in Q1. However, the subsequent Q2 guidance for Secure Communications revenue dropped to $54–$59 million, compared to the $59.5 million reported in Q1.

Lesson: Government and large enterprise sales, particularly for high-value security solutions like SecuSmart, are inherently "lumpy." Deals can shift forward (as in Q1) or backward, causing volatility in quarterly revenues. While the full-year outlook is better, investors should expect quarter-to-quarter revenue and profitability swings in the Secure Communications segment due to the nature of long, irregular government procurement cycles.

Capital Efficiency is a Priority: The initiation of the share buyback program and the better-than-guided cash usage emphasize that management is prioritizing disciplined capital allocation and cash flow generation, a critical signal for a company that has been in a long-term transformation.

Lesson: The company's goal is not just to be profitable on an adjusted basis, but to sustainably generate cash and allocate that capital to enhance shareholder value, which marks a significant shift from its previous restructuring-focused phase.

BlackBerry (BB) Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis

Company Guidance for Q2 (provided in Q1 report):

• Total Revenue: $115 million - $125 million

• Adjusted EBITDA: $8 million - $14 million

Key Metrics Investors Should Watch:

BlackBerry's performance is driven by its two primary segments: IoT and Cybersecurity (formerly Secure Communications).

Blackberry (BB) Price Target

Based on 6 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for BlackBerry in the last 3 months. The average price target is $4.68 with a high forecast of $6.00 and a low forecast of $3.71. The average price target represents a 9.52% change from the last price of $4.27.

Opportunity for Short-Term Trading Post-Earnings

BlackBerry's stock often sees significant volatility around its earnings reports, primarily driven by retail investor interest and the company's "meme stock" status, which can sometimes detach price movement from fundamental results.

Potential Scenarios for Short-Term Trading:

Trading Considerations:

High Volatility: Due to the elevated retail investor interest, BB is highly susceptible to exaggerated price movements both up and down, making it a high-risk trade.

Trade the Guidance: For BB and many turnaround/growth stocks, the future outlook (guidance) often dictates the stock's post-earnings move more than the quarterly results themselves.

Risk Management: Given the volatile nature of the stock, any short-term trade should involve strict risk management, including setting stop-loss orders.

In summary, for a short-term trade, a surprise that shifts the narrative around QNX growth or a definitive path to sustainable profitability (especially through a guidance raise) would likely be the most potent catalyst for a significant upward move.

Summary

BlackBerry (BB) is expected to report its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings on September 25, 2025. The analyst consensus projects an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of approximately $0.01 on revenue of around $122 million to $125 million.

This revenue forecast represents a potential year-over-year decline, reflecting persistent challenges in the macroeconomic environment and auto production. Key focus areas for the quarter include:

QNX (IoT): Momentum for the QNX platform, particularly in the automotive and General Embedded Markets (GEM), is critical. Management guided QNX revenue to be in the $55-$60 million range.

Secure Communications: Expected revenues are between $54-$59 million, driven by demand for Secusmart and other security solutions, particularly from government contracts, despite long sales cycles.

BlackBerry has a history of impressive earnings beats, but i am not expecting an outperformance for this quarter. Investors will closely watch any updates to full-year guidance.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think BB could provide much positive guidance despite not a outperformance for fiscal Q2 2026 quarter reporting.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.