To The Moon

Why the U.S. market has been down the past 3 days

1. Rising bond yields / hawkish Fed fears

2. Cooling momentum in tech / AI names

Many of the market’s leaders (e.g. Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet) have pulled back from recent highs. The exuberance that drove recent gains is moderating. 

3. Valuation concerns & profit‐taking

With indices trading near record highs, some investors are taking profits. The recent dip may just be a normal pullback. 

4. Uncertainty over macro data & policy direction

Key upcoming reports (jobs, inflation) and potential surprises could shift confidence. Also, risks like a U.S. government shutdown are lurking. 

⸻

Outlook for the next week 👍👍

• Watch the jobs / labor data

The nonfarm payroll report will be closely watched. A weak print could nudge expectations for further Fed cuts; a strong print might push markets to reconsider that scenario. 

• Possible continued consolidation

Given the recent strength, the market may go sideways or modestly down as it digests gains—unless a strong catalyst emerges. 

• Volatility risk around data releases

Inflation, consumer sentiment, Fed comments — any surprise could fuel sharp moves.

• Fed policy is key

The market is pricing in further cuts (in October, December), but the pace and timing remain uncertain. If the Fed signals restraint, equities could come under pressure. 

• Look for sectors to lead

Defensive, rate-sensitive, or value sectors could outperform if the environment becomes more cautious. Also, select names with strong fundamentals may hold up.

⸻

Hope no more tariff surprise & looking for smooth sailing next week 🙏👍