To The Moon

🎯 A special LABUBU, and what it might mean

Something really interesting just happened: Pop Mart created a custom LABUBU figurine specifically for the Apple CEO, holding a mini LABUBU in hand. That’s not just a cute gift — symbolically, it signals that Pop Mart wants Apple to notice.

To me, that’s a possible opening gambit. If Pop Mart can secure even a modest form of collaboration with Apple — joint limited editions, device tie-ins, or collector bundles — the upside could be explosive. The Apple brand alone could catapult Pop Mart into a different league. 

📊 Solid financials backing the hype

The numbers are impressive:

• In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart’s revenue jumped nearly 4× year-on-year.

• Over the trailing 12 months, revenue is in the tens of billions (in CNY), with net margins approaching 20-25%.

• Their debt is low, which means less leverage risk.

• Profits and margins have grown hand in hand with topline growth — they’re not just printing volume, but doing it efficiently.

So this is not just hype — it’s growth grounded in real performance.

🌍 Tailwinds, IP strength & growth levers

Pop Mart is sitting on strong IP (LABUBU, “The Monsters,” etc.), a growing global collector community, and multiple levers to monetize beyond just figurines (licensing, digital collectibles, media, themed merchandise). Add in global expansion plans, and you’ve got a company with runway.

Pair that with a potential Apple tie-in, and suddenly distribution, brand elevation, and “cool factor” get turbocharged.

🚀 Price target & timing

I believe that by end-2026, the share can reach ~HKD 470 Why that’s plausible:

• If Pop Mart compounds revenue and earnings 30–40% annually (which recent trends suggest is feasible),

• If a collaboration with Apple triggers multiple re-ratings,

• If the market continues to reward “premium collectibles + tech crossover” stories —

Then that target isn’t pie in the sky. It’s ambitious, but reachable.

✅ Thesis & caveats

My thesis: Buy now and hold long term. This isn’t a fast flip. The core business is strong, growth is real, and the optional upside (Apple tie) is a huge asymmetric bet.

Risks:

• The Apple “signal” might just be symbolic, with no real partnership.

• Consumer trends in collectible toys are fickle.

• Global expansion, licensing, media — all hard to execute.

• The valuation is already elevated, so missteps could sting.

If you’re comfortable with volatility and believe in innovation + brand potential, this is a high-upside bet. I’m entering now, eyes peeled for any Apple / Pop Mart announcements, and planning to stay for the ride for 2+ years.