To The Moon

I. October Performance: A Historic Bull Run

Index: Korean stocks soared; the KOSPI broke 3,900, up 62 % YTD. October alone +8.4 %, beating MSCI Asia-Pac (+11 %).

Exports: October semiconductor exports hit a record $13.4 bn, +51 % YoY. Memory +63 %; HBM QoQ +20 %.

Leaders: Samsung (005930.KS) +12.6 %, SK hynix (000660.KS) +18.3 %, both at all-time highs. Combined market cap > ₩600 trn, 34 % of KOSPI—highest since 2000.

Flows: Foreigners net-buyers for 10 straight days, $2.6 bn—longest streak since 2021. $Direxion Daily MSCI South Korea Bull 3x Shares(KORU)$ took $380 m in October, assets doubled.

II. Valuation: Still Reasonable After Earnings Revisions

Valuation drivers

• Earnings upside: Street lifted 2025E combined net profit +12 % in October; sector growth now +46 % vs +25 % at start of year.

• Relative value: SOX 22×, STAR 50 170×; Korea still cheapest. If 2026 ROE stays 17 %, fair P/E → 15×, implying 20 % upside.

III. ETF Ladder & Risk Check

Hong Kong 2× Leverage ( $XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709)$ 2× SK hynix / $CSOP Samsung Electronics Daily (2x) Leveraged Product(07747)$ 2× Samsung)

• Valuation beta: High; 0–1.8 % premium; event trades only.

• Risk gate: Stop 1 %; if spot DRAM/NAND –5 % in two weeks, hist. drawdown 8–12 % → 2× ETF –20 %+.

  

Hong Kong Unlevered ( $CSOP HKKRTECH(03431)$ Korea Tech)

• Valuation: Tracks Korea Tech index 11× 2025E vs 13× hist; Samsung + SK weight 43 %, blended with NAVER beta.

• Risk: KRW –3 % → HKD NAV –2.5 %, tolerable.

  

China A-share China-Korea Semi (513310) : $HUATAI PERUI CHINA SECURITIES KOREA EXCHANGE CHINA KOREA SEMICONDUCTOR TRADING OPEN ENDED INDEX SECURITIES INVESTMENT FUND (QDII)(513310)$

• Valuation: Underlying 17× 2025E, 57 %ile since launch; equal-weight lowers single-country premium, 60 % discount to STAR Chip.

• Risk: Halt creations if premium >1 %; if A-share style flips to small-cap, liquidity can evaporate—use T+0 exit.

  

US Leverage / Cash (KORU 3× / SKOR small-cap) $Direxion Daily MSCI South Korea Bull 3x Shares(KORU)$

• KORU 3×: ≤5-day trades only; choppy markets cause 18 % annual compounding slippage; prices US-night news (tariffs, AI orders), good hedge vs HK open.

• SKOR: 0.59 % fee, IRA eligible, 11.5× 2025E; core USD holding. If US10Y >4.5 %, EM allocation cut to 10 %.

IV. Conclusion

October exports and earnings revisions confirm a “valuation + profit” twin upgrade. Sector P/E still below historical average, leaving 15–20 % re-rating room.

• Short-term: use HK 2× ETFs for event swings.

• Medium-term: hold unlevered HK & A-share ETFs to lock in rerating.

• Long-term: USD-based SKOR as core.

Enforce strict premium & drawdown rules; stay exposed to Korea’s historic semi up-cycle ahead of next HBM capacity ramp or AI data-center order wave.

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