To The Moon

$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ I’m watching this week’s Asia tour with heightened focus; it sits at the intersection of geopolitics, liquidity and market psychology. NASDAQ’s seven-month rally has thrived on dovish expectations, yet the deeper question now is whether diplomacy will reinforce or unsettle that confidence.

Macro Context: Inflation Cools, Optimism Holds

September CPI rose 3.0% year-on-year, the highest since January 2025 but still beneath the 3.1% forecast. Core CPI matched at 3.0%, confirming that inflation is plateauing rather than reigniting. Shelter inflation eased to 0.2% monthly, and services ex-shelter steadied. Futures now imply two more rate cuts before year-end, guiding the terminal Fed Funds rate toward 4.25%.

This isn’t victory; it’s equilibrium. When CPI stabilises near 3% and growth remains above 2%, historical data shows equities returning about 11% annualised, mostly through liquidity-driven sectors such as semiconductors and software. The current environment rewards process over panic; patient capital, not speculative churn.

Geopolitical Lens: The Tour Begins – Deals Over Decoupling

President Trump has now touched down in 🇶🇦 Qatar, pausing en route to Asia to reaffirm his Middle East peace framework. The Emir, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, boarded Air Force One to meet him; an unusual gesture signalling diplomatic urgency. The stopover briefly steadied sentiment across energy and defence equities before the President resumed his five-day Asia mission through 🇲🇾 Malaysia, 🇯🇵 Japan and 🇰🇷 South Korea.

According to Bloomberg, Trump’s real China strategy is “doing deals, not decoupling.” That phrase reframes the entire narrative; less confrontation, more calculated transactional diplomacy.

From U.S. officials and regional sources:

• The Trump–Xi bilateral is confirmed for 30 Oct in Gyeongju, focusing on trade, tariffs and supply-chain recalibration.

• Agreements on critical minerals and a peace framework in Malaysia are expected.

• Investment deals with South Korea are being expedited; China will not attend the Thailand–Cambodia signing.

• The U.S. is courting shipbuilding expertise and capital from Asian allies, with India expanding in that sector.

• No Kim Jong Un meeting is scheduled; the agenda is purely economic.

• In Seoul, hundreds protested new U.S.–Korea investment accords; proof that diplomacy always travels with dissent.

This tour signals a pragmatic pivot. It isn’t isolation; it’s controlled re-engagement. If tangible progress emerges, markets will read it as a risk-friendly détente, fuelling cyclical rotation across Asia-ex-Japan ETFs and semiconductors. Even modest agreements could unlock a relief rally, while failure would likely bring volatility, not collapse.

Technical Framework: Momentum Persists, Liquidity Tightens

NASDAQ closed at 22 941.79 (+0.89%), extending its winning streak. The VIX fell 6.99% to 17.3, reflecting calm beneath geopolitical noise. The index trades above its 50-day EMA (22 850) with resistance near 23 540 and breakout potential toward 23 870–24 500. RSI 64 shows mild fatigue, yet market breadth is broadening: the Russell 2000 (+1.27%) and MidCap 400 (+1.35%) confirm rotation beyond megacaps.

The NASDAQ 100 has now held above its 20-day moving average for 138 sessions; a streak that has never historically ended at this length. Probability favours continuation beyond day 140. The trend that’s been our friend remains in charge.

Historical Probability: Q4 Strength Ahead

Seasonality reinforces that optimism. When the S&P 500 trades above its 100-day MA from June to September and ends September positive, Nov–Dec have been positive 100% of the time, averaging a +6% gain.

This year the S&P 500 has remained above its 20-DMA for 141 days, versus 200 in 2024. Positive years usually sustain longer runs, implying further Q4 upside potential. Even if diplomacy proves neutral, market structure still leans constructive.

Institutional Positioning and Flow Dynamics

Institutional positioning confirms guarded optimism.

• Citadel raised QQQ holdings 8%; Millennium expanded TSM exposure.

• Franklin Templeton projects 15–20% software EPS growth by 2026.

• Gov Capital forecasts NASDAQ 25 000 by Dec 2025, while LongForecast places October’s range at 25 912 (max 27 726).

• Goldman Sachs targets S&P 24 000 on rate-cut tailwinds; JPMorgan warns 22 000 if tariff tensions persist.

I maintain VIX 18 calls as tactical insurance but remain structurally bullish. Liquidity breadth continues to widen; an under-appreciated strength in this late-cycle phase.

Watchlist and Tactical Setup

If the Xi meeting delivers cooperation, I’ll scale into SMH ETF (target 280) and China-exposed tech like AAPL, AMZN and AMD, targeting 3–5% upside. If rhetoric hardens, I’ll rotate to XLI puts, monitoring QQQ 610 and NASDAQ 22 800 as tactical pivots.

Key catalysts this week:

• Wed – FOMC: 25 bp cut expected

• Thu – Q3 GDP: > 3% growth strengthens bull case

• Fri – Core PCE: < 2.8% confirms Fed latitude

• Tue – BOJ: yen volatility as carry signal

My Take: Preparation Beats Prediction

Diplomacy and data rarely align perfectly, yet both now lean toward stability. Inflation is tamed but alive, liquidity abundant, and Trump’s agenda grounded in negotiation rather than confrontation. Markets reward equilibrium, not extremes.

A credible handshake in Gyeongju could extend NASDAQ’s run another 5% into November; even a neutral outcome may simply pause, not reverse, the trend. I’m 60% long tech, 20% hedged, 20% cash for tactical adds. After decades navigating policy-driven markets, I know conviction only matters when matched with discipline.

The tour has begun. The headlines may shift, but the calculus remains: when diplomacy replaces disruption, momentum often endures.

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