To The Moon

$CME Bitcoin - main 2510(BTCmain)$ $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ I’m witnessing one of the most telling capital shifts of the quarter as money flows out of defensive gold and into risk-on digital assets. I’m aligning this move with the renewed China-US trade dialogue that’s rekindling global risk appetite across crypto and equities. This is not just a chart move; it’s a sentiment reset backed by policy alignment, liquidity, and conviction.

Gold is down 5% on the week while Bitcoin is up 3%, a divergence that rarely appears this clean. I’m treating it as the first leg of a broader rotation, one that’s beginning to echo through correlated names like Coinbase and Ethereum as capital repositions for November’s FOMC setup.

Bitcoin reclaiming macro leadership amid shifting capital flows

BTC/USD climbed 3% to $113,539 (27Oct25 NZT 🇳🇿) as weekend price action broke through 112,000 resistance during thin liquidity hours. The 4-hour chart confirms higher lows through overlapping Keltner and Bollinger mid-bands, with EMA 13 and 21 curling upward and RSI holding above 50.

At current valuations, even a small reallocation from gold becomes seismic. A 1% gold shift implies $134,270 BTC, 3% $188,330, and 5% $242,391 (Source: Bloomberg & Glassnode). Those levels redefine Bitcoin’s potential to absorb macro liquidity as trust in traditional hedges weakens.

Momentum structure supports continuation if 112,000 holds as support. Options flow is turning decisively bullish, with heavy call concentration in the 120,000–125,000 strikes for 01Nov expiry.

Short-term outlook: base case 65% probability of a continuation toward 116,000–118,000 before cooling; invalidation below 109,500. I’m positioning for an upside bias as the US-China trade thaw strengthens cross-border liquidity sentiment.

Gold retraces as speculative flows unwind

XAU/USD slid 5% to $4,111 (27Oct25 NZT) as the prior week’s speculative surge exhausted itself. The 4-hour structure shows a breakdown below the EMA 21/55 confluence with RSI under 45, reflecting fading momentum as haven demand softens.

The retreat from the 4,360 zone aligns with narrowing Bollinger width; volatility compression typically precedes a directional reset rather than a resumption. ETF data confirms the flow reversal, with GLD seeing $280M in net outflows over five sessions.

Short-term outlook: 70% probability of consolidation between 4,080–4,160 before CPI; upside invalidation 4,220. I’m treating gold as a funding source now, with capital rotating toward higher-beta crypto and growth equities.

Coinbase mirrors the crypto rotation with breakout momentum

COIN surged 9.8% to $355.86 (27Oct25 NZT) as institutional re-risking spilled into listed crypto plays. The 4-hour Keltner-Bollinger structure shows clear expansion through upper volatility bands, with EMA 13 crossing above 21 and 55.

Volume spiked over 2× average with aggressive call sweeps in the 360 and 400 strikes for 08Nov expiry (approx. $5.7M net premium). RSI near 62 suggests healthy acceleration with room for continuation.

Short-term outlook: 60% probability of an extension toward 373–380 if BTC holds above 112,000; invalidation 330. I’m viewing Coinbase as a pure beta expression of the same rotation narrative driving Bitcoin and ETH higher.

Cross-asset takeaway

I’m watching this rotation crystallise into a defining macro signal; gold’s unwind is releasing liquidity into digital assets and crypto equities just as China-US policy thaw boosts global sentiment. When capital starts moving in weekends and low liquidity windows, it signals conviction rather than noise. If this pattern sustains through the next weekly close, it sets the tone for a November rally built on liquidity, alignment, and renewed confidence in the risk complex.

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