To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$

🧭 How $NVDA filled its gap and shattered the $5T barrier

Just like that, I watched $NVDA fill its morning gap on 29Oct25, rip through $206 on the 4-hour chart, and within roughly 30 minutes create the $5 TRILLION club. The print at $210.81 crowned the move. At this scale, Nvidia is larger than AMD, Arm, ASML, Broadcom, Intel, Lam Research, Micron, Qualcomm, and TSMC combined, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Its market value eclipses Canada’s GDP near $2.24 T and Mexico’s near $1.85 T, and is approaching half of India’s near $3.91 T. This is not simply dominance; it is a geopolitical asset class.

📈 From $4T to $5T: the fastest trillion ever earned

From 09Jul25 to 29Oct25, only about 16 weeks, Nvidia advanced from $4 T to $5 T. That is the steepest capitalisation climb on record, powered by the AI infrastructure super-cycle. Nvidia first hit $4 T on 09Jul25, then cleared $5 T on 29Oct25; this is a historic two-step that re-priced the AI economy.

Bloomberg timeline, Nvidia’s Path to $5 Trillion, from DeepSeek shock to the OpenAI stake

🧠 The technical blueprint: where I am positioning next

I track structure, not stories. On the daily timeframe, price reclaimed the 55-day EMA with conviction, sliced through the 1.272 Fibonacci extension at $198.79, and held momentum. RSI sits above 70; strong, not exhausted. MACD remains in bullish expansion. On the 4-hour chart, the early-session gap fill below $206 was textbook; buyers stepped in, $210 quickly flipped to support, and volume expanded as Keltner and Bollinger channels widened. The harmonic bat projects toward $221.80 at the 1.618 extension, with an overshoot near $235 at the 2.618 measured move. Short interest sits near 1.2 percent of float; supply from bears is thin. Options flow corroborates: earlier call sweeps clustered at $210 and $220, roughly ten to one versus puts.

Harmonic pattern projecting the 1.272 and 1.618 targets, $198.79 to $221.80

4-hour Keltner and Bollinger compression, gap fill confirmed, trend intact

30-minute chart, gap closure and support retest at the $210 zone

📊 Options flow and volatility surge

Options traders see fireworks ahead. Short-term implied volatility spikes above 60 percent on the front of the curve, which prices in significant near-term moves likely tied to earnings or fresh AI catalysts. Someone purchased $18 million of out-of-the-money $235 calls expiring 19Dec25 at about $6.55, signalling conviction in upside continuation. The live put-to-call mix showed 118 K calls versus 11 K puts, with the ratio near 0.09 to 0.15 on most feeds. The ATM term structure shows the near end elevated while 60-day and beyond flatten in the low-40s, which indicates acceleration rather than reversal.

NVDA option-flow tape, $18 M OTM $235 calls, 19Dec25 expiry, filled near $6.55

ATM term structure, front-month IV above 60 percent, curve flattens beyond 60 business days

$NVDA is trading at an all-time high after management outlined about $500 billion in expected business over the next six quarters. Caution for today’s tape: the FOMC statement posts at 2 pm EST with Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 pm; for NZ traders this is 7:00 am and 7:30 am on 30OctNZDT. Expect significant volatility across indices and AI equities as positioning resets.

🌍 Macro winds and the AI super-cycle

The macro backdrop is amplifying Nvidia’s ascent. Global growth holds near 3 percent while AI capital expenditure is surging. Nvidia’s data-centre revenue recently grew about 93 percent year on year to roughly $41.1 B. Hyperscalers are projected to invest about $267 B in AI accelerators this year, according to Gartner. With the Fed leaning toward easier policy into 2026 and global inflation drifting toward 3.6 percent, the cost of funding this build-out is falling. The ECB’s neutral stance and China’s property drag remain headwinds; however, Nvidia’s U.S. and Middle East diversification offsets the gap.

Geopolitics matters. Nvidia said it will build seven supercomputers for the U.S. Department of Energy, and Jensen Huang has been explicit that he assumes China revenue at zero for now; he also said he is confident President Trump will reach a good deal with China. Reuters reported that Trump plans to discuss Nvidia’s Blackwell chips with President Xi; any thaw could add several billion dollars per quarter in incremental demand.

⚙️ Catalysts igniting the $5T fire

Huang’s Washington keynote outlined about $500 B in AI-chip orders over the next six quarters, a seven-supercomputer roadmap for the U.S. government, and partnerships spanning Palantir for enterprise AI, Eli Lilly for drug discovery, Uber for autonomy, and automotive ties with Samsung and Hyundai. The message is simple: demand remains ahead of supply, and the platform moat continues to widen. Morningstar’s Brian Colello notes that even in-house silicon from big tech will at best chip away at Nvidia’s position; it will not supplant CUDA or the broader stack.

🏦 Smart money confirmation

Analyst skew remains heavily positive; the median target sits in the low-$220s with several recent lifts into the $225 to $240 range. Evercore ISI cites Blackwell ramps and software attach; Barclays highlighted backlog visibility. Hedge-fund positioning shows adds from high-conviction managers; recent 13F snapshots captured increases at ARK, Coatue, and Tiger-style books. Veteran managers such as Dan Niles frame $250 in 2025 on roughly 40 to 45 percent EPS growth, which aligns with my model under continued hyperscaler capex.

📊 Numbers that redefine scale

Since the launch of ChatGPT, $NVDA has rallied near 1,100 percent while the S&P 500 advanced about 69 percent. At $5 T, Nvidia equals roughly half the Stoxx 600 and surpasses the entire crypto market’s capitalisation. Jensen Huang’s personal stake sits near $177 B, placing him among the world’s wealthiest. Functionally, Nvidia has shifted from a chip vendor to an AI sovereign that shapes markets and policy alike.

📉 Historical context: insider timing and compounding gains

After today’s $NVDA pop, Nancy Pelosi’s original $5M purchase on 22Nov23 is now hypothetically worth around $21.5M, a gain of roughly 330 percent. That’s nearly $16M in profits, or about 91 years’ worth of her annual salary, from one trade.

Nvidia 5-year chart highlighting Pelosi’s 2023 entry; +1,561% over five years, +336% since her trade.

🎯 Forward outlook: my playbook

Support: $198 pivot; a decisive break would put me neutral. Resistance: $215, then $221.80; a breach opens $235. Key date: 19Nov25 earnings; management has guided revenue near $32.5 B plus or minus 2 percent. Macro trigger: a Trump–Xi meeting in November; any export thaw for Blackwell could add several billion dollars of quarterly run-rate. Risks: persistence of China restrictions or a capex slowdown if financing tightens. Position: I am accumulating on dips to $205 with a stop near $198; my near-term target is $225 with reassessment at the 1.618 extension.

Chart snapshot, $210.81 up 4.86 percent, marking the $5 T threshold

💭 Final take: Nvidia is the current, not the grid

I have seen super-cycles; this is something else. $500 B of orders, seven national supercomputers, and demand that is 12 to 18 months ahead of supply make this a platform re-rating rather than a momentum squall. If AI is the new electricity, Nvidia is the current that surges through it.

👉❓With the gap filled, the 1.272 reclaimed, and options flow tilting hard to calls, what realistically slows the platform that just outgrew entire nations?

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