Pltr forecast earning by AI
Based on the latest analyst consensus and company guidance as of November 2, 2025 (one day before Palantir's scheduled Q3 earnings release), here's a forecast for Palantir Technologies' (PLTR) Q3 2025 earnings. Palantir's fiscal Q3 covers July 1 to September 30, 2025. The company provided Q3 guidance in its Q2 earnings report, projecting revenue of $1.083 billion to $1.087 billion (approximately 50% year-over-year growth at the midpoint) and adjusted operating income of $493 million to $497 million.
investors.palantir.com
Analyst estimates slightly exceed this on revenue, reflecting optimism around accelerating AI platform adoption (particularly the Artificial Intelligence Platform, or AIP), strong U.S. commercial momentum, and government contract wins.Key Forecast MetricsThe consensus forecast points to robust growth, driven by 85%+ expected full-year U.S. commercial revenue expansion and steady government sector performance.
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Here's a summary:Metric
Consensus Estimate
Year-Over-Year Growth
Range (Low to High)
Notes
Revenue
$1.09 billion
+50.5%
$1.08 billion to $1.12 billion
Slightly above company guidance midpoint of $1.085 billion; reflects ~50% growth from Q3 2024's ~$726 million.
EPS (Normalized)
$0.17
+70%
$0.15 to $0.19
Up from $0.10 in Q3 2024; based on 21 analysts, with no recent downward revisions and 19 upward in the last 30 days.
Adjusted Operating Income
$495 million
+75% (estimated)
$493 million to $497 million
Directly from company guidance; analysts align closely here.
Segment Breakdown ForecastAnalysts expect the Commercial segment to outpace Government, continuing the trend from prior quarters where U.S. Commercial grew 93% year-over-year in Q2 2025.
investors.palantir.com
Segment
Consensus Revenue Estimate
Year-Over-Year Growth
Notes
Government (Total)
$603 million
+47.6%
From ~$408 million in Q3 2024; driven by defense and intelligence contracts, though potential U.S. government shutdown risks could impact Q4 more than Q3.
Commercial (Total)
$487 million
+55.6%
From ~$318 million in Q3 2024; U.S. Commercial subset expected to grow 85%+ for the full year, fueled by AIP bootcamps and enterprise AI demand.
Additional Context and RisksBullish Factors: Palantir's full-year 2025 guidance was raised to 45% revenue growth (to ~$4.16 billion) and 85% U.S. Commercial growth, crushing prior expectations.
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Analysts like Dan Ives see "trillion-dollar potential" in AI leadership.
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Recent stock performance (up 161% YTD) reflects high investor confidence.
Bearish Factors: Valuation remains elevated (trading at ~25x forward sales), and any miss on guidance could pressure shares. Government revenue faces macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.
Overall Outlook: I forecast PLTR to meet or slightly exceed consensus, with revenue at $1.09 billion and EPS at $0.17, assuming continued AIP traction. This aligns with 50%+ growth trends and no major surprises in the report. If results beat, expect raised full-year guidance.
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