To The Moon

What a grueling week—finally in the rearview.

The S&P kicked off this morning (SG time) right where it left off yesterday, sliding lower.

Selling pressure ramped up hard early on, but the mood eased in the second half, and we closed with the major indexes carving out a decent arc off the lows.

The S&P and Dow scraped small gains; Nasdaq dipped modestly.

Tech stayed soggy, but cyclicals and value sectors powered ahead—money clearly rotating into safer harbors.The government shutdown drags on, so the October nonfarm payrolls report, due today, got kicked down the road again.

That’s two straight months the Labor Department can’t publish the data.

What little we do see isn’t pretty: University of Michigan consumer sentiment cratered to 50.3, a three-year low, hammered by shutdown uncertainty and sticker-shock inflation squeezing household budgets.

Short-term inflation expectations ticked higher; long-term actually eased.

At this rate, next week’s October CPI is almost certainly delayed too.Without jobs or inflation prints, the Fed’s driving blind in thick fog—foot hovering over the brake, hands clenched at ten and two.

Futures still price a 67% chance of a December cut, but absent data, hawks and doves dig in deeper, making consensus brutal.

The Nasdaq 100 shed ~3% this week—worst since April.

The weekly candle kissed the 10-week moving average, a line that’s anchored this entire leg up since spring.

Break it and the trend’s over.

Bulls sensed blood in the water and mounted a ferocious counterattack today, reclaiming the 5-week line too.Nvidia led the charge—fitting, since it also led the plunge.

It breached its 50-day intraday, at one point down >15% for the week, vaporizing nearly a trillion in market cap.

Every time it coughs, the doomsday chorus in the media recycles the same FUD.

Today it was Reuters claiming the White House wants to block sales of the new China-bound “castrated” Blackwell chips, plus some tabloid saying Jensen Huang told Taiwan he’s not pushing AI silicon into China and has no shipment plans.

Company guidance already zeroed out China revenue back in June—these are yesterday’s headlines dressed up as fresh panic.

We said Nvidia was oversold short-term; the 50-day was rebound bait.

It dipped, snapped back, and now looks headed for range-bound chop into the November 19 earnings.

The old $200 support flipped resistance—needs earnings or a reopened government to punch through.SoundHound AI actually posted solid numbers after the bell yesterday and gapped up premarket, but opened and faded.

The market’s numb to every new AI partnership announcement; valuations keep bleeding.

Real stability still hinges on Uncle Sam flipping the lights back on.Next week the Senate votes again.

Democrats want the ACA subsidy extended a year—22 million low-income folks on the line.

Premiums skyrocket without it.

GOP won’t budge.

They just hiked the debt ceiling $5 trillion, tacked on another trillion-plus in months, spending like confetti—yet can’t spare healthcare for the working poor.

The economy’s gone full K: execs swimming in stock options, top quintile richer than ever, bottom half crushed by cost-of-living.

Consumption’s now a luxury-goods game.Grand Pa Trump still refuses to negotiate until Dems vote to reopen; he’s leaning on Senate Republicans to nuke the filibuster—needs 60 votes he doesn’t have.

Stalemate.

Both sides dug in.

House GOP stuck in the middle like the meat in a stale sandwich.

Bond-market odds: 25% chance shutdown ends by the 11th, 28% by the 15th, 46% after the 16th.

Market’s not betting on a quick handshake.Yet today’s price action confirmed what I’ve been saying: sidelined cash is camped at the door, finger on the trigger.

The second Democrats floated a new proposal, the Nasdaq ripped from the depths.

Tech-wise, the S&P pierced its 50-day, dipped under the critical 6,640 midterm support—triggering stops down to ~6,630—then got yanked back above 6,700 where heavy open interest formed a floor.

Closed with a long lower wick, classic hammer.

One candle doesn’t seal the deal, but if we reclaim the 50-day next week, risk appetite reignites.

Fail, and 6,500–6,550 is the next ledge.

In September or October I’d say we tag it.

But it’s November—fund managers chasing year-end bonuses, everyone knowing the second the government reopens it’s a bully rally into year-end.

Hard to press the index that low when the cavalry’s visible on the horizon.So I started buying the dip today and I recommend you do the same to catch up with the bully rally starting next week.

Told you reopening is the green light, but this morning’s flush through the 50-day smelled like a stop-run head-fake.

Play the oversold bounce or hold into the year-end sprint—both work.Bigger picture: Fed #3, NY Fed’s Williams, said today the balance-sheet strategy’s next phase is assessing when to ease from “slightly above ample” reserves back to full QE.

Repo stress, reserve scarcity signals—he thinks we’re close.

Treasury’s already flooding; soon the Fed joins.

Liquidity deluge incoming.The fog’s thick, but the map’s clear: bad news exhausted, sentiment in the final wobble.

One whiff of shutdown progress and we rocket.

Bitcoin—the canary for risk—held steady while equities bled this morning.

$iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(IBIT)$ 

$2X ETHER ETF(ETHU)$ 

JPM says post-washout, BTC has serious upside 6–12 months.

I still see 95k as the line in the sand unless systemic shock hits.

VIX spiked to 22.7, collapsed under 20.

Month-end funding squeeze unwinding; overnight rates normalized, repo facility usage zero two days running.

Pressure valve opening.Stay long enough in U.S. markets and you learn: every sell-off comes gift-wrapped with a unique horror story, media screaming apocalypse.

Yet the tape always climbs out of the grave, resilience on steroids.

Trigger varies, but fear flips to greed in a blink.

“Don’t catch falling knives” works for single stocks—those can go to zero.

Broad indexes? Different animal.

Ring-fence the panic, then global capital parachutes in.

Especially in bull regimes: technical levels hold, sentiment repairs, policy backstops.

Only real bears produce un-buyable lows.

Tops are the mystery; bottoms telegraph.Fed and Treasury both easy—foam keeps inflating.

Tightening is the pin; miles away.

JPM desk still targets S&P 7,000 year-end, says keep buying dips.

Big money coiling for the next leg.Sector-wise: rare-earth names ripped.

$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$   flipped from down to up intraday after earnings.

Forced to halt China rare-earth sales under DOJ deal—Q3 revenue off 15%, but adjusted loss 10¢ vs expected 18¢, $19.41 cash hoard solid.

U.S. just expanded critical minerals list to 60, pushing domestic supply chain, weaning off China.Memory plays bucked the AI gloom.

SanDisk $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$  crushed numbers and guidance, sees DRAM/NAND tightness into 2026.

Wall Street calls AI bubble early-stage; memory vendors prime beneficiaries.

 I added to names that got clubbed this week; they’ll gap hard once D.C. reopens.Intel edged up—Musk says $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  may need a mega-fab for autonomy and robots, hinted at teaming with Intel .

Old guard probably already knocking on his door.That’s the week.

Markets tanked, malls ran Black Friday early—bet half of you stress-shopped your carts full.

Rest up this weekend, recharge.

New battles Monday.

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