Nebius Group Sinks 7% as Parabolic Rally Unwinds
$NEBIUS(NBIS)$
$102.22 (-7.03%) — Sharp Breakdown Below $105: Short-term Correction Deepens Toward $95–$100 Zone
Nebius plunged 7.03% to $102.22, under heavy profit-taking after a parabolic YTD rally of +269%.
The session saw a sharp intraday reversal (H $114.56 → L $99.83) with volume spiking to 44.7M vs. 17.6M avg, marking clear distribution pressure.
The drop reflects (1) speculative unwind following recent highs near $141, (2) valuation stress after extreme multiple expansion, and (3) traders locking gains ahead of next week’s earnings (Nov 11).
Technicals & 1-week view
The price broke decisively below the 20-EMA ($114.4), testing the 50-EMA ($106) and briefly piercing it intraday before closing lower — confirming a momentum breakdown.
MACD has flipped negative (MACD −2.55 vs. signal −0.27) with an expanding red histogram, showing strong downside momentum.
RSI (14) has fallen to ~42, signaling fading strength but not yet oversold, leaving room for further pullback.
Key levels: support $100 / $95 / $90 (retracement zones); resistance $117 / $136 A recovery above $114.5 would be needed to reestablish short-term bullish bias, while failure to defend $100 could trigger a deeper correction toward the $90 handle.
Valuation: NBIS trades at P/E (TTM) ~132.8×, far above the S&P 500’s ~25×, pricing in aggressive growth expectations. Beta ~1.12 reflects moderate market sensitivity. EPS (TTM) $0.77 with market cap near $25.7B. Street 1-year target $161.4, implying ~58% upside if growth resumes. Base case target: $110–$115 on rebound; bear case: $90–$95 on EMA-50 breach.
Risk & Disclaimer
Volatility remains extreme due to valuation compression, thin float, and sentiment-driven swings. Technical commentary only, based on TradingView & Yahoo Finance data (Nov 7 close); not investment advice.
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