MSTR Slides to New Lows, Support Eyed Near $200
$Strategy(MSTR)$
$224.61 (-2.91%) — Consecutive Lows Breakdown: Momentum Weakens, Bears Eye $210–$200 Zone
MicroStrategy closed at $224.61, down -2.91%, marking another lower-low in a persistent multi-month downtrend and now sitting ~-58% below its 52-week high of $543.00 (Yahoo).
YTD performance is now -22.45%, one of the weakest among large-cap software names.
Selling pressure accelerated as Bitcoin retreated and high-beta tech remained under institutional de-risking. Volume (10.7M) stays near average but with clear dominance from sellers.
Technicals & 1-week view
Price continues sliding beneath both the 20-EMA ($264.31) and 50-EMA ($297.42), with no sign of reclaiming either. This keeps MSTR locked firmly in a bearish structure.
MACD remains deeply negative (MACD -22.20, Signal -19.22), confirming strong downside momentum with no bullish curl yet.
RSI at 30.29 is near oversold but not showing bullish divergence—indicating weakness could persist.
Key levels: Major support sits at $218, then $210 and psychological $200. A rebound requires a daily close back above $240, then $260 (20-EMA) to shift bias to neutral. Losing $220 opens a fast path to $205–$200. Pattern note: A clear descending channel from July suggests trend continuation unless a stronger BTC rebound occurs.
Valuation & forecast
MSTR trades at a P/E of 9.22, far below the S&P 500’s ~25× multiple—reflecting BTC-linked volatility and inconsistent software fundamentals. EPS (TTM) sits at 24.36, but earnings do not drive the stock; Bitcoin exposure does.
Target: Base case $245–$260 if Bitcoin stabilizes and price reclaims 20-EMA. Upside stretch to $285–$300 only if BTC momentum turns strongly bullish. Downside continuation base case remains $205–$200, aligning with oversold channel support. Street 1-yr target: $524.50, but this assumes aggressive BTC appreciation.
Risk & Disclaimer
Extreme BTC sensitivity, macro rate pressure, and high volatility can cause outsized swings regardless of fundamentals. Technical commentary only, based on today's TradingView & Yahoo Finance data—not investment advice.
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