Market Sudden Dive: Black Friday Hit Early! The Week to Buy the Dip?
Yesterday, tech stocks pulled back across the board, with $1.2 trillion wiped out from the U.S. stock market on Thursday!
$Dow Jones(.DJI)$ plunged over 700 points, and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ briefly broke below its 50-day moving average.
Why the drop? Liquidity is deteriorating, Rate-cut expectations in doubt
The U.S. government shutdown lasted 44 days, delaying federal spending that should have boosted liquidity and making things worse.
Treasury issuance increased, pulling cash out of the market in the short term, reducing liquidity in the banking system. Banks now have less cash for lending, financing, and investment — market liquidity is tightening.
Multiple Fed officials struck a cautious tone regarding a possible December rate cut. This has forced the market to adjust expectations, with the probability of a December cut now below 50%.
Early Black Friday discounts: would you buy the dip?
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ plunged 6%, continued falling pre-market, and is negative YTD again. Is the “Mag 7” about to become Mag 6?
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ , $Broadcom(AVGO)$ — none escaped. Even financial stocks like $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ fell 3%. $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ ? Even worse — down 6%, crashing to $170.
Michael Burry plans to reveal more details on AI overvaluation on Nov 25, right after Nvidia’s earnings — clearly aiming to deliver another blow to an already weak macro backdrop.
Big bearish bets in the options market
There are three massive S&P 500 bearish trades suggesting potential volatility into year-end. Based on these puts, there’s a good chance the market retests 660–670 this week.
SPY 2025-11-14 659 PUT, ~$700K traded
SPY 2025-12-19 645 PUT, ~$7.5M traded
SPY 2025-12-19 647 PUT, ~$8M traded
If you’re looking at something to buy…
Tesla back to negative YTD, losing support at $400, may go down further; $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ testing the critical $600 level; $Strategy(MSTR)$ approaching $200; $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ and $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ dropped back to previous resistance — could they fill the post-earnings gap?
Everything else still near highs, Nvidia reports earnings next week.
Are you betting on a rebound — or stepping aside for now?
Everything is testing key support levels… but are these discounts good enough?
Or should we wait for the real Black Friday?
And what about Michael Burry’s recent comments?
Is he speaking out because he’s been losing money — or will he nail it again this time?
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On individual names, I’m staying cautious. Tesla turning negative YTD doesn’t look like a buy yet, and many big tech names — Amazon, Meta, Palantir, Nvidia — are just starting to test key support. With Nvidia’s earnings next week and Burry set to release his AI-overvaluation thesis, volatility could easily continue. I’d rather watch the price action than jump in early.
Overall, I’m choosing patience. These dips are tempting, but I want to see if support holds or if a deeper pullback is coming, especially with huge bearish SPY put positions in play. A clearer setup or a cleaner washout would give me more confidence to buy.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
So is Michael Burry losing money by shorting stocks like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ or nailing it again?
Possibly both. His contrarian streak often looks wrong before it has been proven right. But this time the market is not collapsing. It is rotating to more value stocks.
I believe Michael Burry is calling out froth, not fleeing. His deregistration is a tactical retreat, not a surrender.
For me, the following week is about testing my conviction. If Big Tech like Nvidia and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ are holding, it is time to nibble. If they are cracking, I would wait for the feast.
Michael Burry's warning will reinforce my conviction to buy resilient income generating assets to hold long term.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
Are you betting on a rebound — or stepping aside for now?
Everything is testing key support levels… but are these discounts good enough?
Or should we wait for the real Black Friday?
And what about Michael Burry’s recent comments?
Is he speaking out because he’s been losing money — or will he nail it again this time?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins and vouchers! Lucky tiger may win 66 tiger coins!
What triggered the sell off? The driving force of the stock sell off was the rapid repricing of a December rate cut by the Fed. From a near certainty of a rate cut, now it is only 50% chance according to CME FedWatch tool.
To make matters worse, hawkish commentary from Fed speakers exacerbate the Bearish sentiments.
So should we buy the dip or wait?
I would buy the dip only if support holds and more stocks advancing than declining. I would be watching the Magnificent 7 closely especially $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ which is due to report its earnings on November 19.
This is a test of patience, not panic. Volatility is the price we pay for long term gains.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub @CaptainTiger @Tiger_SG
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Everyone wants to time the market, so they avoid buying when it is hot, then when things slide, they still avoid buying because they expect more losses to come.
Take the chance now, take some position in stocks that you were reading up on. After all it goes: time in the market is better than timing the market
Michael Burry, known for his contrarian views, may be warning of further downturns or signaling a market turning point, though his predictions often take time to materialize.
Waiting for the real Black Friday may not lead to significantly better prices, as markets are volatile, and the dip could be either a good or bad buy now
Short-term traders might act quickly in expectation of an immediate bounce, while long-term investors may consider dollar-cost averaging, waiting for more clarity, or holding cash if risk-averse
The market is unpredictable in the short term, making it difficult to decide whether to buy the dip for a quick recovery or wait for further downside, with each decision depending on individual risk tolerance and strategy
Tag :
@Huat99
@Snowwhite
1. Betting on a stock market decline
2. There is no support level when stocks are priced highly
2. Black Friday is likely to be a weak revenue event with retail stocks impacted by adverse economic conditions
4. Michael burry is a news commentator not an investment professional
5. Michael burry is as accurate as CNN at promoting negative stock movements
We might just be living in a time that would become the background for a Big Short 2 movie, after all Burry has shown his shorts, maybe it really isn't just smoke and somewhere in the mess, there just might be a fire...
从个股看，特斯拉再度下跌6%，英伟达、亚马逊、谷歌、博通等科技巨头无一幸免。Palantir 下跌至170美元，也凸显市场对高估值 AI 概念的恐惧。期权市场的大规模看跌押注显示，年底波动可能加剧，SP500 或重测 660–670 支撑位。迈克尔·伯里的评论给市场增加了另一层心理压力，也让投资者不得不思考 AI 高估的风险。
个人观点是：目前市场波动大，折扣虽诱人，但短线追底风险较高。逢低买入可以考虑小仓位布局，分批进入；更稳健的策略是先观望，等关键支撑位确认稳定后再行动。英伟达财报将是下一轮风向标，投资者需要在情绪与基本面之间找到平衡，而不是盲目跟风黑色星期五式抄底。短期防守、长期布局，仍然是我的操作逻辑。
國債發行增加，短期內將現金撤出市場，減少了銀行體系的流動性。銀行現在用於貸款、融資和投資的現金減少了——市場流動性正在收緊。
多位美聯儲官員對12月可能降息持謹慎態度。這迫使市場調整預期，目前12月降息的概率低於50%。
國債發行增加，短期內將現金撤出市場，減少了銀行體系的流動性。銀行現在用於貸款、融資和投資的現金減少了——市場流動性正在收緊。
多位美聯儲官員對12月可能降息持謹慎態度。這迫使市場調整預期，目前12月降息的概率低於50%。