To The Moon

$Target(TGT)$ is expected to report its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, before the market opens.

Target (TGT) Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis

The current analyst consensus suggests a decline in both earnings and revenue compared to the same quarter last year (Q3 2024), reflecting continued consumer pressure and promotional activity.

EPS Trend: The consensus EPS estimate has seen some minor downward revisions in the month leading up to the report, suggesting analysts are becoming slightly more cautious.

Context: TGT's stock has underperformed the broader market, and its recent earnings reports have been volatile, including a stock drop after the Q2 2025 report.

Target (TGT) Fiscal Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Target reported mixed results that showed signs of sequential improvement from the previous quarter (Q1 2025), but the overall numbers remained a challenge compared to the prior year. The market reacted negatively, with the stock declining significantly following the report.

Key Operational Highlights

Sequential Improvement: Management highlighted that traffic and sales trends improved meaningfully from Q1 2025 across all six major categories.

Digital Strength: Digital sales continued to be strong, led by same-day fulfillment options like Drive Up.

Leadership Change: The company announced a CEO succession plan, with Michael Fiddelke being named as the new Chief Executive Officer, effective in February 2026.

Hardlines Bright Spots: Specific categories, particularly gaming (fueled by the Nintendo Switch 2 launch), toys, and trading cards, saw strong performance.

Lesson Learned from Q2 2025 Guidance

The primary takeaway for investors from Target's guidance was that the challenging macroeconomic and retail environment is expected to persist through the end of the fiscal year, and management is prioritizing margin stability over aggressive sales growth.

1. The Lesson of Caution and Realism

Guidance: Target maintained its cautious full-year guidance, reiterating its expectation of a low-single digit decline in sales for fiscal 2025 and an Adjusted EPS range of $7.00 - $9.00.

Lesson: The decision to maintain a conservative outlook, despite showing sequential improvement in Q2, signaled to the market that Target does not see a quick return to strong sales growth. This suggests that the pressure on the "discretionary retail" category (apparel, home goods, hardlines) is a systemic, long-term consumer budget issue, not a temporary blip.

2. The Lesson of Profitability Over Traffic (Margin Resilience)

Gross Margin Focus: Management emphasized that while they are seeing sales pressure, they are focused on efficiency, cost management, and mitigating issues like "inventory shrink" (theft).

Lesson: Target's strategy has shifted to defend the gross margin rate and protect the bottom line (EPS), even if it means sacrificing some top-line sales. The focus on cost discipline and efficiency signals that Target is in a "hunker down" mode, preparing for a prolonged period of cautious consumer spending.

3. The Lesson of Strategic Pivots (The New CEO Mandate)

The announcement of the new CEO, Michael Fiddelke, along with a focus on an "Enterprise Acceleration Office," indicated that significant internal changes are needed.

Lesson: The company acknowledges that even with external economic pressure, internal operational complexities and a need to re-establish merchandising authority are key barriers to profitable growth. The new leadership's mandate is to simplify processes, accelerate performance, and leverage technology like GenAI to drive efficiency, which suggests that investors should expect a strategic multi-year turnaround effort rather than a simple cyclical recovery.

Key Metrics Investors Should Watch

While EPS and Revenue are critical, the following metrics will provide deeper insight into Target's operational health and consumer behavior:

Target (TGT) Price Target

Based on 32 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Target in the last 3 months. The average price target is $102.89 with a high forecast of $140.00 and a low forecast of $80.00. The average price target represents a 16.28% change from the last price of $88.48.

Short-Term Trading Opportunity Post-Earnings

High Volatility is Expected

Analysts and options traders are pricing in a potentially sizable stock move, possibly 10%, in either direction following the release. This indicates high uncertainty and a potential opportunity for short-term traders.

Potential Scenarios for Trading

Key Trading Takeaway:

Given the overall negative sentiment leading into the report (downward EPS revisions, underperformance relative to the S&P 500, "strong sell" technical ratings), the short-term risk appears skewed toward the downside, especially if the Q4 guidance is disappointing.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We are seeing TGT moving in a downward trend even though there is positive RSI momentum, so TGT need to have a strong guidance for Q4, as that would be the “holiday” season which could help to boost TGT earnings, and we could expect some volatility trading before TGT earning release on 19 Nov due to the recent market pullback, and possible rotation.

There is no clear direction of whether investors are preparing to rotate to consumer staples, but would we see rotation into consumer discretionary stocks like TGT as well?

Summary

Target Corporation (TGT) is scheduled to report its fiscal Q3 2025 earnings on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, before the market opens. Analyst sentiment is cautious, reflecting persistent pressure on consumer discretionary spending.

Consensus Forecast:

Adjusted EPS is projected to be around $1.78, a year-over-year (YoY) decline of approximately from $1.85 in Q3 2024.

Revenue is expected to be roughly $25.3 Billion, marking a modest YoY decline.

Key Metrics to Watch:

Comparable Sales Growth: The critical measure of customer demand. The market will look closely for continued deceleration in Comparable Store Sales and sustained strength in Digital Sales. A surprise decline here would be highly negative.

Gross Margin Rate: This metric reflects the company's profitability. Investors are focused on whether Target can control inventory shrink (theft) and manage markdowns/promotions effectively, particularly in discretionary categories like Home and Apparel.

Q4 2026 Guidance: The forecast for the holiday quarter is the biggest market mover. Weak guidance would confirm the long-term caution signaled by the previous Q2 report and could lead to a significant stock decline.

Trading Opportunity:

Volatility is expected to be high. Given the downward revisions leading into the report, a miss on guidance could trigger a sharp, short-term stock sell-off, while a strong Q4 outlook could initiate a relief rally.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think TGT would provide a stronger Q4 outlook and help to initiate a short rally after its earning release.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.