To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is expected to deliver another quarter report (scheduled for November 19, 2025) of substantial growth, driven almost entirely by its dominance in the AI data center market with the ramp-up of its Blackwell GPU Nvidia Q3 FY2026 Earnings Analysis Nvidia is expected to deliver another quarter of substantial growth, driven almost entirely by its dominance in the AI data center market with the ramp-up of its Blackwell GPU architecture.architecture. The expectations are extremely high, which means the company not only needs to beat these headline numbers but also provide strong forward-looking guidance to satisfy investors. Nvidia Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Summary Nvidia delivered strong results for Q2 FY2026, beating both revenue and EPS consensus estimates, but faced investor scrutiny due to the impact of U.S. export restrictions on its critical Data Center segment. Key Financial Metrics (Q2 FY2026) Performance Highlights Data Center Dominance: The Data Center segment was again the primary growth driver, accounting for of total revenue. Within this segment, Blackwell Data Center revenue grew 17% sequentially, confirming the strong ramp-up of the new platform. China Headwind: The Data Center revenue growth was restrained by the absence of H20 chip sales to China during the quarter due to U.S. export license requirements. The company noted that this significantly impacted the overall segment growth. Broad Strength: Other segments, while smaller, showed solid growth: Gaming revenue was up YoY, and Automotive revenue was up YoY, demonstrating the breadth of Nvidia's platform advantage. Q3 2026 Guidance and Lessons Learned The guidance provided for Q3 FY2026 offered crucial insights into the current state of the AI market and the key structural factors influencing Nvidia's business. Key Lessons Learned from the Guidance The guidance and management commentary highlighted three major takeaways for investors: 1. Unconstrained Demand Exceeds China Risk The Lesson: The core demand for AI infrastructure is so overwhelming globally that it can completely absorb significant geopolitical risks. Details: Management issued Q3 guidance of billion without assuming any H20 shipments to China. Despite losing an estimated in a key market (China), the company still guided for massive sequential revenue growth (approx. QoQ), demonstrating that demand from hyperscalers, enterprises, and sovereign AI projects in the rest of the world remains insatiable. 2. Blackwell Ramp is the New Growth Engine The Lesson: The transition to the new Blackwell architecture is proceeding at an aggressive pace, providing high visibility into future revenue streams. Details: The sequential growth in the Data Center segment is now heavily driven by the Blackwell platform. This confirms that customers are rapidly deploying the newest, most expensive hardware, ensuring Nvidia's revenue will continue to climb even as older Hopper models scale down. 3. Pricing Power and Margin Expansion are Intact The Lesson: Nvidia's strong technological lead and CUDA ecosystem lock-in allow it to maintain or even expand its high profit margins despite massive scaling efforts. Details: The projected increase in Non-GAAP Gross Margin to (and a goal to exit the year in the mid- range) shows that the high price tag on Blackwell GPUs and related networking solutions (like InfiniBand) is not being eroded by competition or production costs. This is the clearest sign of a high-moat, defensible business model. The Q2 earnings and Q3 guidance reaffirmed that the AI infrastructure build-out is a secular, multi-year trend with demand far exceeding supply, solidifying Nvidia's role as the central bottleneck and beneficiary. Key Metrics Investors Should Watch The market's reaction will hinge on the following key areas: 1. Data Center Segment Revenue and Growth Why it matters: This segment, fueled by AI accelerators (like Blackwell), is the primary growth engine (estimated to be 88-90% of total revenue). What to watch: Analysts are closely watching the rate of the Blackwell ramp-up and any color on demand from hyperscalers (like AWS, Microsoft, Google) and smaller cloud service providers. A slight miss here, even with a total revenue beat, could temper enthusiasm. 2. Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) Why it matters: Sustained high gross margins (last quarter was 72.7% indicate Nvidia's pricing power and cost efficiency in AI chip production. What to watch: The consensus is looking for gross margins near $73.6% or higher. Any sign of margin compression, whether from increased competition (AMD, custom chips/ASICs) or higher production costs, would be a major negative. 3. Fiscal Q4 2026 Guidance Why it matters: In the current high-growth environment, the outlook is often more important than the previous quarter's results. This provides a glimpse into the AI infrastructure spending trajectory. What to watch: The consensus Q4 revenue estimate is around $61.3$ billion. An increase in this guidance would confirm the continued, accelerating demand for AI infrastructure into the next fiscal year. 4. Commentary on Risks Why it matters: Geopolitical and supply chain risks remain significant headwinds. What to watch: Management's commentary on US-China export restrictions and the availability of supply (whether bottlenecks are shifting from GPU supply to complementary hardware like networking, servers, power, and space) will be critical. Nvidia (NVDA) Price Target Based on 54 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Nvidia in the last 3 months. The average price target is $234.40 with a high forecast of $389.73 and a low forecast of $138.00. The average price target represents a 25.62% change from the last price of $186.60. Opportunity for Trading Short-Term Post-Earnings The options market is pricing in a significant move, historically around 6% to 8.5% for the stock price post-earnings. Due to the already elevated expectations, the risk is generally skewed to the downside unless Nvidia delivers a significant, unambiguous beat and raises its forward guidance substantially. Market Impact: Support or Accelerate Sell-off? Nvidia's earnings are a pivotal event for the entire AI and technology sector. Scenario for Market Support: If Nvidia significantly beats expectations and, more importantly, provides bullish commentary and guidance that validates the multi-year trajectory of AI infrastructure spending, it would likely halt or reverse any recent tech sell-off. It would confirm the AI rally is based on fundamental strength rather than just hype, bolstering other AI-related stocks and the broader Nasdaq. Scenario for Accelerating the Sell-off: If Nvidia's report is perceived as disappointing (e.g., in-line numbers, margin compression, or conservative guidance), it could trigger a deep rotation out of high-growth tech stocks. Nvidia is seen as the bellwether for the AI trade; a pause in its growth narrative would create widespread fear of "peak AI," accelerating the broader tech sector sell-off. The high bar means that a perfect report is needed for broad market support, while anything less could trigger broader market caution. This is a summary of the latest analyst price targets and critical technical support/resistance levels for Nvidia ahead of the fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report on Wednesday, November 19, 2025. Analyst Price Targets (Pre-Earnings) Wall Street sentiment remains overwhelmingly Bullish on Nvidia, viewing it as the foundational winner of the AI trend. Consensus Rating: Buy/Strong Buy Out of approximately 36 analysts, over 95% rate the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy. Technical Support and Resistance Levels The stock has experienced a recent pullback from its all-time high, making these levels especially critical for post-earnings movement. Post-Earnings Move Expectation The options market is pricing in an implied volatility move of approximately 7.7% for the stock following the earnings release. NVDA implied volatility (IV) is 51.1, which is in the 73% percentile rank. This means that 73% of the time the IV was lower in the last year than the current level. The current IV (51.1) is 6.4% above its 20 day moving average (48.0) indicating implied volatility is trending higher. Bullish Scenario: A positive surprise could see the stock test or even the area relatively quickly. Bearish Scenario: A disappointment could lead to a test of to quickly, with a risk of cascading selling towards the level if the low breaks. Summary Nvidia (NVDA) is set to report fiscal Q3 2026 earnings on November 19, 2025, amid high expectations and a volatile market. The consensus expects strong growth, with Revenue around billion and Adjusted EPS of . Key Metrics to Watch Data Center Revenue: Must exceed billion, driven by the Blackwell GPU ramp-up, as this is the core growth engine (estimated of revenue). Non-GAAP Gross Margin: Investors will scrutinize this for stability near to confirm Nvidia’s continued pricing power. Q4 FY2026 Guidance: The forward outlook is most critical. A guide for Q4 revenue above billion is needed to satisfy high-growth expectations. Short-Term Trading & Market Impact Trading Opportunity: Due to elevated valuation, the risk is skewed towards the downside. A slight beat or in-line guidance could trigger a "sell the news" reaction. Only a massive beat and significant guidance increase will likely fuel a strong, sustained short-term rally (implied volatility move is to ). Market Impact: Since Nvidia is the bellwether of the AI trade, a strong report could support the broader tech market, potentially halting the current sell-off. Conversely, any miss or sign of deceleration would likely accelerate the rotation out of high-valuation growth stocks. The technical setup shows critical support near $184.00, and a sustained break above the all-time high of $212.19 is required for a major bullish breakout. Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think NVDA would be able to produce a bullish breakout with its better-than-expected earnings release. @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts. Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.