Netflix Eyes 120–125 Resistance After Post-Split Recovery
$Netflix(NFLX)$
110 USD Post-Split Rally: Technical Setup Eyes 120-125 Breakout Zone》
Latest Close (EST): NFLX closed at $110 (-3.58%), after marking a solid recovery from recent lows yesterday. Following the 10-for-1 stock split that took effect November 17th, the adjusted price shows momentum building toward key resistance levels around $120-125.
Core Market Drivers: Netflix's recent stock split aims to improve accessibility for retail investors, while the company continues expanding its video podcast portfolio through exclusive deals with Spotify and iHeartMedia. However, Q3 earnings disappointment due to Brazil tax disputes ($619M impact) continues to weigh on sentiment, with management downgrading FY operating margin guidance from 30% to 29%.
Technical Analysis:
Volume expanded to 43.4M shares (1.20x ratio), signaling increased institutional interest post-split. Without access to real-time MACD/RSI data, the price action suggests building bullish momentum above the psychological $110 support level. The stock has recovered approximately 15% from its post-earnings lows around $100.
Key Price Levels:
Primary Support: $107-110 — Split-adjusted psychological level and recent bounce zone
Resistance Zone: $115-125 — Pre-split equivalent of $1,200-1,250, representing major technical hurdle
Critical Break: $134.12 — 52-week high target if momentum sustains
Valuation Perspective: Current P/E TTM of 56.3x remains significantly elevated versus S&P 500's ~20-25x multiple. Forward P/E of 43.3x sits above historical average of 37.5x, suggesting limited valuation expansion room despite growth prospects.
Analyst Targets: Wall Street maintains constructive outlook with average target of $135.66 (46 analysts), representing 19% upside. Strong recommendation profile shows 14 "Strong Buy" and 24 "Buy" ratings, reflecting confidence in long-term streaming dominance and advertising revenue growth.
Weekly Outlook: Expect continued consolidation in $110-120 range as market digests split dynamics. Break above $120 could trigger momentum toward $125-130; failure to hold $110 may retest $105 support zone.
Risk Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Netflix remains subject to content cost pressures, competitive streaming dynamics, and global regulatory challenges that could impact performance.
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