To The Moon

$Alibaba(BABA)$ Buckle up, folks—Alibaba's FY2026 Q2 earnings drop tomorrow, and the buzz is electric! 📈 After sliding from that $192 peak, shares are hovering around $161 today, but whispers of a rebound are growing louder. Analysts are eyeing a revenue pop to about RMB 243 billion, up 4% year-over-year, fueled by e-commerce tweaks and a cloud business that's absolutely crushing it. 😎 But hold the confetti: adjusted net profit might dip to RMB 13.5 billion, down 63%, thanks to hefty investments in flash deals and AI. EPS? Pegged at roughly $0.85, a sharp drop from last year's $2.10, as the company pours cash into growth plays. Will they beat or flop? I'm betting on a mild revenue beat—cloud's AI-driven 26% growth last quarter could steal the show—but profits might miss amid deflationary pressures and fierce competition from Pinduoduo. 🌪️

Diving deeper into the hotspots everyone's watching: Overall revenue growth hangs on e-commerce recovery, with Taobao and Tmall showing solid traction post-Double 11. Flash Deals investments? They're paying off big-time—monthly active users spiked 25%, daily orders hit 120 million peaks, and over 50,000 flash warehouses are revving up instant retail. Alibaba's dumping RMB 50 billion into subsidies, projecting a trillion-yuan transaction boost over three years. That's aggressive, but it's supercharging offline integrations and consumer stickiness. 🛒💥 On the cloud front, developments are fire: Revenue jumped 26% recently, with AI workloads exploding triple-digit. They've committed $50 billion to AI infrastructure, expanding data centers in Brazil, France, Netherlands, Mexico, and South Korea. Partnerships are stacking up, and their ranking as a top global cloud player keeps climbing. No wonder Fortune spotlighted them for AI innovation! 🌐

Now, about that $150 dip— is it a steal? Absolutely, if you're in for the long haul! 📉 At current multiples (PEG at 0.57), Alibaba's undervalued compared to peers, especially with cloud and AI as rocket fuel. If shares pull back post-earnings amid profit jitters, snag 'em below $160 for that bargain buffer. Long-term, e-commerce stabilization plus international expansion could drive 20-30% upside by mid-2026. Risk? Regulatory headwinds in China linger, but stimulus vibes are turning positive. 🤝

And let's talk Qwen—Alibaba's AI beast that's got Silicon Valley sweating! 🧠 The Qwen3 series is a powerhouse, acing benchmarks in reasoning, multilingual tasks, and visual generation. Qwen App just smashed 10M downloads in its first week, blending chat smarts with real-world actions like shopping, travel booking, and food orders. It's open-source, dirt-cheap for devs, and outperforming rivals like DeepSeek-V3 in math and coding. Upgrades like Qwen3-Max-Thinking hit 100% on tough AIME tests, and Wan 2.5 visuals are next-level crisp. This isn't just hype; it's reshaping consumer AI, powering Alibaba's ecosystem, and positioning them as a global leader. If Qwen keeps evolving, watch for massive monetization wins in cloud services. 🔥

Here's a quick metrics snapshot to crunch the numbers:

Alibaba's pivoting hard from e-commerce giant to AI powerhouse—earnings could spark a rally if cloud shines. Eyes peeled tomorrow! 👀 What's your take—beat, miss, or buy the dip?

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📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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