To The Moon

Over $130M in Bullish Flows Target Microsoft and Coinbase Upside

Today in the U.S. options market, two unusual institution-level multi-leg trades appeared in $Microsoft(MSFT)$   and $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$   . Both transactions hit during the midday session and showed volumes far exceeding their respective open interest (V/OI), indicating that large investors were expressing clear directional views rather than engaging in short-term speculation. Microsoft's diagonal call structure exceeded $100 million in notional premium, while Coinbase's bullish call spread approached $30 million. In both cases, the trades reflected a distinctly bullish stance from institutional players.

Microsoft: Massive bullish order signals institutions are positioning for post-earnings upside

A rare, enormous combination trade hit Microsoft's options chain midday: 30,000 contracts of the Feb 20, 2026 480C were aggressively lifted at the ask, while 30,000 contracts of the Jan 16, 2026 500C were simultaneously sold at the bid, representing more than $100 million in premium. This structure is a classic bullish diagonal spread that spans the company's fiscal Q4 earnings—typically reported in late January. It reflects a “after-not-before” approach: institutions are not chasing short-term volatility but are leaving most of their convexity for the post-earnings period.

With MSFT trading around $475, the long 480C sits just OTM, while the short 500C is further out. This positioning implies that institutions hold a clearly bullish medium-term bias but view the pre-earnings period as noisy and less attractive for directional exposure.

Microsoft's fundamentals support that stance. Azure just posted nearly 40% growth, far above expectations; the company also announced new AI strategic partnerships with Anthropic and NVIDIA, with Anthropic committing to purchase $30 billion in Azure compute. Although rising AI infrastructure spending may temporarily pressure margins, the longer-term trend strengthens Microsoft's position as essential infrastructure in the AI era.

In short, the trade expresses: “Microsoft’s trend over the coming months is upward. Institutions want to be long into and beyond earnings, while using structure to sidestep short-term noise and reduce option costs.”

Coinbase: 16,810-contract bullish spread signals a clean institutional bet on year-end upside

Coinbase's large order centered on Dec 19, 2024 expiration: 16,810 contracts of the 260C were bought at the ask, paired with 16,810 contracts of the 310C sold at the bid. With V/OI above 100×, this is unmistakably institutional new-position building. The trade is a textbook bullish call spread—long the upside, but with a clearly defined and risk-managed target zone.

With COIN trading around $252, buying the 260C shows institutions expect meaningful upside heading into year-end, while selling the 310C signals they do not expect an extreme, speculative surge. Crucially, this spread sharply reduces cost in a market where implied volatility sits above 65%.

Coinbase's medium-term story is improving: USDC revenue growth, stronger custody and subscription income, and an increasingly diversified business model. William Blair recently labeled the pullback a “buying opportunity,” while Bernstein maintained its $510 long-term price target, emphasizing Coinbase's evolution into a "digital-asset ecosystem gateway."

Short-term noise remains—such as the Coinbase Premium turning negative and a temporary slowdown in institutional spot buying—but these have not altered the medium-term bullish view. That is precisely why institutions prefer a spread rather than a naked call.

In other words, the trade expresses: “Crypto markets are biased higher into year-end; institutions are long Coinbase, but with controlled risk and a defined profit zone.”

Summary

Both Microsoft and Coinbase saw outsized multi-leg bullish trades today, sending a unified message: institutions are positioning for upward movement over the next phase of the market, not for near-term volatility.

For Microsoft, the options flow clearly suggests post-earnings upside as AI and cloud momentum continue to drive the medium-term trend. For Coinbase, the call-spread structure implies that the probability of year-end upside outweighs downside risk, especially with improving fundamentals across its ecosystem.

From an options-flow perspective, investors may consider:

~Microsoft as a medium-term bullish name, where dips may offer better entries than chasing short-term strength.

~Coinbase as a range-bound bullish setup, with the key watch zone between 260–310, favoring accumulation over chasing spikes.

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