To The Moon

November’s Turnaround - A Remarkable Reversal

Nov End

Just over a week ago, November looked headed for steep losses. The S&P 500 was down 4.4% month-to-date, sentiment was shaky, and markets were questioning everything, from AI to the Fed to the broader economy.

But the Thanksgiving rally changed everything. Today’s shortened Black Friday session sealed the turnaround:

Index Close Daily Change November Change:

• Dow Jones 47,716.42 +0.61% +0.3%

• $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 6,849.09 +0.54% +0.1%

• Nasdaq 23,365.69 +0.65% –1.5%

S&P 500: Best Thanksgiving week since 2008 (+3.7%). 7 straight months of gains.

Nasdaq avoided a deeper drop after being down as much as 7% earlier in the month.

• Hot Stock $Intel(INTC)$ +10.2%

• Biggest Loser $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ –2.6%

• Best Sector Energy +1.3%

• Worst Sector Healthcare –0.5%

Drivers of the Rally

1. Fed Cut Expectations Surge Markets now price in an 87% chance of a December rate cut (quarter point). That dovish outlook fueled risk appetite and helped reverse sentiment.

2. AI Trade Broadens Leadership rotated beyond $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ & $Broadcom(AVGO)$ gained traction, signaling broader confidence in AI as a long-term growth theme.

3. Economic Data Holds Up Jobless claims came in at 216,000, below expectations (230k), easing fears of economic deterioration.

Stocks

What’s Next: The Holiday Sales Test

Black Friday sales data has been mixed so far. Retail stocks didn’t celebrate:

SPDR S&P Retail ETF closed down 0.1%.

The next few days of sales data could shape early December sentiment, and influence whether this rally extends or stalls.

The Week Ahead December Starts Strong

The final month of 2025 begins with a dense calendar:

Key Economic Reports

Report Release Day Importance ISM Manufacturing, PMI (Nov) Monday Growth signal ADP National Employment Report Wednesday Payroll proxy Delayed PCE Inflation (Sept) Friday Fed’s preferred gauge Consumer Sentiment (Dec) Friday Demand outlook.

Major Earnings to Watch

Mon: MongoDB, Credo Technology Tue: CrowdStrike, Marvell, Gitlab, American Eagle Wed: Salesforce, Snowflake, Five Below Thu: Ulta Beauty, Kroger, SentinelOne, TD Bank Fri: Victoria’s Secret.

Conclusion

November’s narrative flipped fast, from fear to relief. The Fed is now firmly back in control of sentiment, and December may hinge on things:

• PCE inflation data : Could cement a rate cut

• Holiday sales strength : Consumer resilience test

• AI leadership broadening : Market breadth vs. hype

If the consumer holds up and inflation cools, December could start with momentum. But if Black Friday data disappoints, this rally could face a quick reality check…

Sale

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This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

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